Iran crisis - implications for Middle East air traffic

[Berlin]

CNN just reported the following:

FAA issues restriction on flights in Iraq, Iran, Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman
From CNN's Greg Wallace

The Federal Aviation Administration said Tuesday it was restricting non-military US aircraft “from operating in the airspace over Iraq, Iran, and the waters of the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.”
Read the FAA's full statement:

"The Federal Aviation Administration issued Notices to Airmen (NOTAMS) tonight outlining flight restrictions that prohibit U.S. civil aviation operators from operating in the airspace over Iraq, Iran, and the waters of the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. The FAA will continue closely monitoring events in the Middle East. We continue coordinating with our national security partners and sharing information with U.S. air carriers and foreign civil aviation authorities."

I wonder what this crisis does for air traffic safety in the region longer term. The same CNN live thread even quotes Iran threatening to attack Dubai . Scary stuff!

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said in its Telegram channel that, in the event Iranian soil is bombed, it will target the cities of Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and Haifa, Israel, in the third wave of operations.

 

[samh004]

I would imagine that if the US were actively tracking Soleimani, they would also know exactly which strategic targets to hit all at the same time to virtually disable the threat of Iran firing on global air traffic. It's a big country, but with assets essentially surrounding them East - South - West I can't see an issue with the US/allies taking out the threat together. Hopefully Trump isn't stupid enough to send troops on the ground.

Hopefully they can neutralise the situation by May, as that's when I'll be trying out Qatar.

I see there's still a lot of traffic over Iran right now, mostly smaller players, but Emirates just flew over them on the way to YYZ and Malaysian is passing by the top. Lots of Turkish and Qatar too.

 

[Berlin]

I see there's still a lot of traffic over Iran right now, mostly smaller players, but Emirates just flew over them on the way to YYZ and Malaysian is passing by the top. Lots of Turkish and Qatar too.

Yep, I've seen that too. But it's a very recent info so let's see if that changes over the next few days. Was just about to book a Qatar flight but might just hold off for a few days...

 

[drron]

In 2007 the UN Security Council imposed a travel ban on Soleimani and that was endorsed in 2015 so he actually shouldn't have been in Baghdad.
Now in this situation you really don't know what to believe but an independent journalist based in Turkey said the US and Saudia Arabia wanted to take action against Iran back in 2015/16.It was postponed because Soleimani was brokering a deal with Turkey Qatar and Pakistan to form an alliance with Iran.but she said this in 2016 not just recently.it explains why Saudia took action against Qatar though.
Saudi Arabia along with Jordan,UAE and Egypt are also backing Israel.

So the Middle East will remain a flashpoint for many years to come IMHO.
The real worry is if Iran launches an attack on Israel.The prospect of Israel using it's nukes in reply is horrendous.

 

[Pushka]

We switched from flying CX to Qatar when CX cancelled our flights and dumped us on a stupid one. Which means of course Qatar airlines will now be impacted. I’m running out of options out of Adelaide and I won’t do Singapore because of the dreadful connections and really hate the flight back.

 

[Berlin]

Ukraine International Airlines plane crashes in Iran

Iran has refused to hand over the black box of a plane that crashed killing 176 people to international investigators.

www.news.com.au

A Boeing 737 belonging to Ukraine International Airlines has crashed due to technical problems after take-off from Iran’s Imam Khomeini airport with 180 passengers and crew aboard, the semi-official Fars news agency has tweeted.

There was no further information immediately available following Wednesday’s crash.

This has just turned super sober and serious!

Now the question is- can it REALLY be that these incidents are unrelated?

My gut feeling is telling me “no way” but my gut had said the same thing when the second MH 777 went down and alas, it was total coincidence.

 

[AisleSeat]

Now the question is- can it REALLY be that these incidents are unrelated?

My gut feeling is telling me “no way” but my gut had said the same thing when the second MH 777 went down and alas, it was total coincidence.

And an earthquake too

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us70006w5q/executive

 

[Berlin]

I just looked on Flightradar and most major airlines seem to now re-route via Saudi/ Egypt airspace to Europe. However, Qatar Airways can't do this so they're the ones pretty much forced to continue to overfly Irak and/or Iran.

What do you guys think- is this a bit scary or not? And what would happen if the crisis heats up even more? I'm really hesitant to book QR now because even the nicest QSuite is of little use if the airplane around it is on fire...

 

[drron]

Well Trump has just announced he will not retaliate because of the missile attack.So now up to Iran.Do they think the missile attack was enough retaliation.

 

[DC3]

Well Trump has just announced he will not retaliate because of the missile attack ...

Bit of a fizzer

Edited: Content

 

[Berlin]

Well Trump has just announced he will not retaliate because of the missile attack.So now up to Iran.Do they think the missile attack was enough retaliation.

Not with the military. But he has announced plenty of additional economical sanctions which is a different kind of retaliation.

 

[amaroo]

Well Trump has just announced he will not retaliate because of the missile attack.So now up to Iran.Do they think the missile attack was enough retaliation.

Given the accuracy of their rockets / missiles, there was nothing to retaliate.

 

[Berlin]

Given the accuracy of their rockets / missiles, there was nothing to retaliate.

That could have been deliberate: An act of de-escalation. They 'hit back' but without spiraling the situation out of control. One can hope, at least.

 

[Pushka]

That could have been deliberate: An act of de-escalation. They 'hit back' but without spiraling the situation out of control. One can hope, at least.

I agree. And least I hope I’m not being too naive. And we are booked on Qatar

 

[drron]

Not with the military. But he has announced plenty of additional economical sanctions which is a different kind of retaliation.

Yes a lot are accusing Trump of escalating the economic war on Iran.
Ironically usually those that support the BDS campaign for Israel.

 

[amaroo]

That could have been deliberate: An act of de-escalation. They 'hit back' but without spiraling the situation out of control. One can hope, at least.

That's not what media is saying. Their capabilities are limited to suiting up the ignorant and getting them to walk into a market.... oh, and shooting commercial planes out of the sky when one of their missiles actually gets fired.

Iranian state media, however, reported at least 80 American troops were killed and 200 were injured in the strikes, citing an "informed source" in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

"As many as 20 critical points of the base were hit by 15 missiles and a significant number of UAVs and helicopters were destroyed," the report said.

"Despite the fact that Americans had been on high alert, their air defense was unable to respond."

Khamenei said in his national address that Iran must stand up to American aggression.

Iran religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: Missile strikes were only 'slap on face' for U.S. - UPI.com

Iranian religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei addressed the missile attack on a pair of U.S.-held military bases in Iraq Wednesday, warning that the strikes were merely a "slap on the face" for the United States.

www.upi.com

 

[Berlin]

This is the first time I see any claim that 'at least 80 American troops' have been killed. I don't usually check Iranian media reports, maybe that is why...

 

[amaroo]

This is the first time I see any claim that 'at least 80 American troops' have been killed. I don't usually check Iranian media reports, maybe that is why...

I first saw it on the BBC...

 

[Berlin]

I first saw it on the BBC...

Well, that's what the Guardian has to say to it:
False claims spread online after Iran missile attack on Iraqi airbases

False claims spread online after Iran missile attack on Iraqi airbases

 

[RooFlyer]

What do you guys think- is this a bit scary or not? And what would happen if the crisis heats up even more? I'm really hesitant to book QR now because even the nicest QSuite is of little use if the airplane around it is on fire...

I have multiple QR flights booked and I’m not ( yet) concerned at all. I flew them to Tehran the week that the Iranians fired some missiles across into Iraq i think it was.