International passenger statistics: March 2019

[Melburnian1]

March and April are poor months to make comparisons with the same month of the previous year because Easter's date changes.

In 2018, Good Friday was on 30 March, so Easter passenger traffic would have been split to some extent between March and April.

In 2019, it was on 19 April, so that didn't occur.

Therefore a 'downturn' in reported passenger journeys in March 2019 compared to March 2018 may not be as serious as it otherwise might be.

That said, the latest BITRE figures disclose that March 2019, where overall international passenger traffic (arrivals and departures) dropped 2.5 per cent was the first month where this occurred since (coincidentally) March 2011.

Adelaide was the only international airport of any size to record a rise. (Port Hedland did too, but its numbers were insignificant, and Townsville no longer had international flights.) Canberra (down 21.1 per cent), Gold Coast (down 16.4 per cent), Cairns and (just) Perth all declined by more than five per cent, while Sydney dropped three per cent and Melbourne 2.5 per cent. Brisbane decreased 1.8 per cent.

Avalon handled just under 30,000 total passengers for March 2019, which at roughly 15,000 each way is around 500 per day inwards and the same outwards, indicating good load factors for its two scheduled A333s each day each way. That's twice as many international passengers as Darwin, which has a government presiding over a Territory economy that's in extremely poor shape.

If one is after two or three seats to spread oneself over, a good bet may be ID (Batik Air) on its PER - DPS as southbound its load factor was only 29.9 per cent in March 2019 while its northbound (to DPS) percentage of seats occupied was 28.7 per cent.

DZ (Donghai Airlines) SZX to DRW flights continue (as Mattg and I have separately previously highlghted) to be around the 30 per cent load factor as well, while much longer established Air Niugini's were about 50 per cent full in March 2019.

The number of passengers handled travelling to or from the USA rose 3.5 per cent in the year to March 2019. While this doesn't show the split between Australians visiting USA (or using it as a transit stop) and USA or other residents coming to Oz, it's a long way short of the media headlines that say tourism to USA is down. (Other statistics such as those from Visit USA - tourism body - may show that.)

Qantas' 'own metal' share of all March 2019 traffic rose 1.3 per cent to 18.2 per cent but the combined Emirates/Jetstar drop was 1.4 per cent.

OD's traffic was up 151.4 per cent while OZ rose 76 per cent and 5J more than 39 per cent, all as a result of new flights. This is why airports fight so hard to obtain new services (and governments, unwisely as we see above with the NT Donghai example, love to splash money around too.)

 

[Quickstatus]

But nonetheless a downturn did occur March on March.
Do you have an April on April comparison?

Thanks in advance...

 

[odysseus]

"Adelaide was the only international airport of any size to record a rise. ... Brisbane rose 1.8 per cent. "

So Brisbane rose or fell?

 

[Melburnian1]

"Adelaide was the only international airport of any size to record a rise. ... Brisbane rose 1.8 per cent. "

So Brisbane rose or fell?

Apologies. BNE also fell. I have corrected this. Thank you!

 

[Melburnian1]

But nonetheless a downturn did occur March on March.
Do you have an April on April comparison?...

There's a lag with these statistics. International figures are slower to collect than the domestic ones because of the greater number of airlines involved.

I am informed that some international airlines have to be 'reminded' to provide information in a timely fashion. There's other occasional problems such as an airline ceasing to serve Australia, or more rarely, going kaput.

Unlike the domestic statistics, the international BITRE ones include freight and separately, mail. (Of course some of the freighter operators, whose figures are shown, are competing with Australia Post, which is the 'mail' component.

April 2019 figures should be available in about 30 days from today.

 

[Peter78]

walked past this screen after arrival at Sydney airport this morning, showing the loads on flights arriving around the time of our flight (NF10). Naturally only a sample size of one on a random (Thurs)day but still interesting to see that only 44 seats were occupied on a flight from mainland China (HU447), or 86 seats on a SQ flight from SIN. QF 118's load would also be only about 50% though it is of course unknown if Business was fully booked, vastly improving the economics of this particular flight.

Sure no indication about freight, return flight loading etc. but I still thought it was interesting... Hopefully a suitable thread to post this to.

 

[Quickstatus]

I have not seen this screen before. Where is it?

 

[dajop]

, or 86 seats on a SQ flight from SIN.

Wouldn't read too much into that. Sometimes you have to fly less full planes to make a killing on the return, noting that flights from Australia to SIN at the moment on SQ are running really full. Throw in a few missed connections at SIN from late connecting services (such as ZRH, AMS, DUS today), it mightn't be so bad.

 

[dajop]

Adelaide was the only international airport of any size to record a rise. (Port Hedland did too, but its numbers were insignificant, and Townsville no longer had international flights.) Canberra (down 21.1 per cent), Gold Coast (down 16.4 per cent), Cairns and (just) Perth all declined by more than five per cent, while Sydney dropped three per cent and Melbourne 2.5 per cent. Brisbane decreased 1.8 per cent.

The drop of 2.5% at MEL is easily explained away by the move of Air Asia to Avalon. If you look at the figures for overall Melbourne, and not just MEL - there was an increase of 0.8% vs Mar 2018.

 

[Melburnian1]

I have not seen this screen before. Where is it?

I can't answer your question, but until about five years ago there was one screen like this at MEL arrivals (behind Customs) and another in the NZ Koru Lounge (the latter showing departure loadings not arrivals IIRC) but sadly both were removed.

 

[Peter78]

I have not seen this screen before. Where is it?

next to the oversize baggage area, close to baggage carousel 6. Similar screens at the exit of quarantine, also in the QF lounges...

Wouldn't read too much into that. Sometimes you have to fly less full planes to make a killing on the return, noting that flights from Australia to SIN at the moment on SQ are running really full. Throw in a few missed connections at SIN from late connecting services (such as ZRH, AMS, DUS today), it mightn't be so bad.

just a statement and no interpretation of the numbers, fully aware of the fact that one single flight doesn't mean anything. Also painfully aware of missed connections as I am soon booked on DUS-SIN-SYD, meaning I would have missed SQ241 most days in the last few weeks.