Melburnian1
Veteran Member
- Joined
- Jun 7, 2013
- Posts
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For travel ex Australia, from about mid January through February (and March if Easter is not in it) is normally low season.
In early 2017, my perception is that to southeast Asia and Europe in particular and probably a few other destinations, perhaps including USA and northern Asia, fares are available that are the lowest in real terms they've been for a few years.
Remember that almost all fares to international destinations include the Australian departure tax as well as the taxes and charges levied by airports, plus if it is a legancy (non-low cost carrier) the airline must deduct commission if the ticket is sold through a bricks and mortar or online travel agent, so that means the A$ airlines receive from a cheap fare is reduced even more.
It's true that some airlines might only offer a few seats at each advertised 'sale fare.' It's also arguable that some of this simply reflects that airlines may have a similar number of seats to cover costs for on 5 February as they do on 26 December, and hence the former must typically be sold at a lower price to attract custom since if we have employment, we're less likely to be on holiday on 5 February.
Unarguably on many routes there is more competition than was the case 15 years ago: look at Australia to Auckland, Singapore, Japan, Manila and Los Angeles as five quick examples, but there are many more including entry into Australia by multiple hitherto unknown mainland Chinese airlines (and trans-Tasman flights by Taiwan's China Airlines.) There are not many routes left (Australia to South Africa is one, and perhaps to South America) where there is relatively limited practical competition that is reasonably time-efficient in overall trip duration.
How much of these lower fares do AFFers perceive is due to consumers needing a fair bit of enticement (an Australian dollar that is relatively low, wages and salaries that for those earning A$100,000 a year or less in much of the private sector may not be increasing in pace with CPI, or only just matching it, decreased mining and resources employment in WA, Queensland and even South Australia, although the upswings in coal and iron ore prices may be a more recent positive and perceived high housing costs if those in their 20s and early 30s want to gain a foothold through a home mortage) and how much is just due to it being 'February', that is, normal 'low season?'
Or is it simply that despite a pretty solid performance by inbound tourism to Oz, airlines are finding that there's so much competition among themselves on various routes that there is enormous pressure to sell seats out of Oz and hence fares have needed to come down in real terms?
In early 2017, my perception is that to southeast Asia and Europe in particular and probably a few other destinations, perhaps including USA and northern Asia, fares are available that are the lowest in real terms they've been for a few years.
Remember that almost all fares to international destinations include the Australian departure tax as well as the taxes and charges levied by airports, plus if it is a legancy (non-low cost carrier) the airline must deduct commission if the ticket is sold through a bricks and mortar or online travel agent, so that means the A$ airlines receive from a cheap fare is reduced even more.
It's true that some airlines might only offer a few seats at each advertised 'sale fare.' It's also arguable that some of this simply reflects that airlines may have a similar number of seats to cover costs for on 5 February as they do on 26 December, and hence the former must typically be sold at a lower price to attract custom since if we have employment, we're less likely to be on holiday on 5 February.
Unarguably on many routes there is more competition than was the case 15 years ago: look at Australia to Auckland, Singapore, Japan, Manila and Los Angeles as five quick examples, but there are many more including entry into Australia by multiple hitherto unknown mainland Chinese airlines (and trans-Tasman flights by Taiwan's China Airlines.) There are not many routes left (Australia to South Africa is one, and perhaps to South America) where there is relatively limited practical competition that is reasonably time-efficient in overall trip duration.
How much of these lower fares do AFFers perceive is due to consumers needing a fair bit of enticement (an Australian dollar that is relatively low, wages and salaries that for those earning A$100,000 a year or less in much of the private sector may not be increasing in pace with CPI, or only just matching it, decreased mining and resources employment in WA, Queensland and even South Australia, although the upswings in coal and iron ore prices may be a more recent positive and perceived high housing costs if those in their 20s and early 30s want to gain a foothold through a home mortage) and how much is just due to it being 'February', that is, normal 'low season?'
Or is it simply that despite a pretty solid performance by inbound tourism to Oz, airlines are finding that there's so much competition among themselves on various routes that there is enormous pressure to sell seats out of Oz and hence fares have needed to come down in real terms?
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