Exhaustive automated points transfer and awards calculator

[big_RED]

I know we have the "how to obtain a US credit card" thread in the AFF.

However I wonder if anyone's found a tool where I can enter my yearly credit card spend (eg let's say $100k AUD) across the various categories (restaurants, hotels, airlines, other) and the tool would calculate what credit cards across Australia and America would return in points when considering my category spend. But then also the calculate the transfer rate if I sent all the points to their various hotel and airline loyalty partners (to ideally determine which partner has the best transfer rate based on my total points earned in a year).

I've built this manually in GSheets for a number of Australian and US credit cards (for Chase, Capital One, Amex, Bonvoy etc) to see what the total points balance would be across all their transfer partners.

However, my next challenge is reviewing the two dozen airline partners of these cards for specific flight routes (eg SYD to LAX) to see how much in points and taxes it'd cost across each airline. To determine which credit card to apply for because it has the best transfer rate to the best airline, that has the best availability for the best type of seat for my routes.

I'm currently working with Gemini to review information, but I wondered if anyone has a better way to do this? Or if you think I'm over complicating things?

 

[burneracc]

Its an interesting problem, personally id code a solution instead of using sheets / gemini but thats just me.

my next challenge is reviewing the two dozen airline partners of these cards for specific flight routes (eg SYD to LAX) to see how much in points and taxes it'd cost across each airline

Why route specific? it shouldn't matter once you have determined the highest earning card per category no?

Or if you think I'm over complicating things?

I mean this is a fun hobby for many, so if you are enjoying it then it's fine. It's worth mentioning though that you also need to weigh up your options against the airlines / alliances you fly. Optimising backwards from there makes the most sense IMO.

My methodology: being Australia based and including a smattering of domestic business travel I have just defaulted to QF. Also makes sense to work towards lifetime OWS via QF LTG.

 

[big_RED]

Its an interesting problem, personally id code a solution instead of using sheets / gemini but thats just me.

Yeh I was going to try and vibe code something up and see if i could get it to work.

Why route specific? it shouldn't matter once you have determined the highest earning card per category no?

We do a fair bit of SYD > LAX. So if Air Canada has the most affordable/available business class award seats (for instance vs Delta or AA or United or Qantas), then I'd be looking for a card that transfers high to Air Canada. Vs being a card that has a generally high earn, but a lower transfer ratio. Case in point is the US Amex Bonvoy Brilliant. In my calculations it has the highest earn rate for us based on category spend, but due to 3:1 transfers it's worse than the Chase Sapphire when transferring to Air Canada.

So therefore if we find AC is the new best airline we should be using that as an important factor.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Re United availability SYD-LAX, have you seen this thread? Where's all the UA J (Polaris) TPAC availability gone?

 

[big_RED]

Re United availability SYD-LAX, have you seen this thread? Where's all the UA J (Polaris) TPAC availability gone?

I don't know why but I've always perceived UA as a budget/not safe airline that I've always avoided. A lot of folk fly them through work without complaint. But I had quickly skinned that thread the other week. I understand it to mean UA is now harder to book with points.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I don't know why but I've always perceived UA as a budget/not safe airline that I've always avoided. A lot of folk fly them through work without complaint. But I had quickly skinned that thread the other week. I understand it to mean UA is now harder to book with points.

Through Air Canada/Aeroplan you’re gonna be getting award seats on United (or not), unless you want to fly via Vancouver.

 

[levelnine]

I think the first part of the project is possible (working out the optimal card portfolio given a certain spend profile), but I do think the second part (working out which gives the best points strategy on a particular route) is not.

The main reason is that a lot of award availability is hypothetical (eg Australia to London on Qantas in business). It doesn't exist in reality, so there's no point optimising your card spend for that particular airline/route. And which routes/airlines are hypothetical and which are real is constantly changing, as the United Australia-US route shows.

 

[big_RED]

Through Air Canada/Aeroplan you’re gonna be getting award seats on United (or not), unless you want to fly via Vancouver.

Ah! This is what I'm wanting to find out. I thought I read AC flies direct SYD to LAX?

And which routes/airlines are hypothetical and which are real is constantly changing, as the United Australia-US route shows

I don't disagree. I suppose I hoped for a more stable reality but I know that's impractical.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Ah! This is what I'm wanting to find out. I thought I read AC flies direct SYD to LAX?

Nope, QF, AA, DL, UA.

Plus a host of other routes and airlines with one or more stops.

 

[big_RED]

So from my analysis (attached) and the feedback here (thanks!), the Capital One Venture X is definitely the winner out of Chase Sapphire, Bonvoy Brilliant Amex, and the Aussie Amex Platinum.

Capital One Venture X provides 2ppd across all spend. And transfers to similar airlines as CSR, however with the 2ppd vs CSR 1ppd, Venture X comes out ontop.

Air Canada, British Airways (Avios), Etihad, JAL, Singapore, Qantas. Doesn't transfer to United but that seems to be ok as I can go through AC.

- American, Delta, Qantas and United fly direct from Sydney to Los Angeles.
- Qantas and American Airlines fly direct from Sydney to Dallas
- United and Qantas fly direct from Sydney to San Francisco

Anything else I should be thinking about that you think I'm missing?

 

[levelnine]

Anything else I should be thinking about that you think I'm missing?

What will you do if there's no award availability on the route?

Currently, United is only releasing 'saver-level' award availability to its own card holders and elites. Qantas sometimes releases a little to LAX, but generally it is Platinum request only on routes to the US. American releases some last minute award availability, but you need to be willing to fly off peak and last minute.

Also consider that Cap 1 has become more aggressive in shutting down overseas customers that only hold an ITIN (if that's you).

Finally, have a think about whether any of these calculations will substantially move the needle for you. For example, even with a 2x card, you're going to need to spend $USD130,000 ($AUD200,000) to earn enough points for a single return Qantas business class award flight SYD-LAX.

The real money is in sign-up bonuses, not everyday spend, unless you have monstrous everyday spend.

With all that said, the Cap 1 VX is a decent catch-all card. It's often recommended for that reason.

Edit: None of which is meant to discourage you (I enjoy these thought exercises), but you need to be able and willing to chase lots of sign-up bonuses or push big spend through cards for any of it to matter these days.

 

[big_RED]

What will you do if there's no award availability on the route?

Cry. Lol. But no, I hear you. We'd resort to simply buying Qantas Economy. And put through an upgrade request.

Cap 1 has become more aggressive in shutting down overseas customers that only hold an ITIN (if that's you).

Good to know. We should be ok due to US Citizenship. Although salary and address might be hard to prove. We'll find out.

The real money is in sign-up bonuses, not everyday spend, unless you have monstrous everyday spend.

100%. Completely agree. We've been playing the game for many years with Qantas and have been lucky to get Business seats twice a year for the last 6 yrs with churning cards. But with Qantas ' change to Classic Rewards+, my calculations are we'd need 1mil points for 1 x return J flight. So that'd take us a number of years to get.
So my goal here is to get more flexible points to be able to choose the airline when needed to transfer the points to. And with the lower taxes on other airline's I was hoping a US card could be viable.

But we will be limited with the number of cards we can sign up to in the US and so realise our J flying is going to be much less frequent moving forward

 

[levelnine]

o my goal here is to get more flexible points to be able to choose the airline when needed to transfer the points to. And with the lower taxes on other airline's I was hoping a US card could be viable

I totally get you.

Two additional thoughts:
1. The only reliable way to get award flights to the US is to have QF Platinum and request award seat releases. Is it possible that you can devote some time/energy to working out if that can be attained for cheap?

2. Business class return cash fares can dip to ~$7K return when on sale, which is fairly regularly. Would it be better for you to pursue a strategy where you attain miles/points that can be exchanged for cash? Eg Chase points can be cashed out at 1c/pt, even more with Pay Yourself Back on the CSR.