Dumb Airlines not thinking

[Scarlett]

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

For example, what will China do? China will be looking to re-establish its economy and getting its businesses running again. Part of that will be airlines because they employ so many people. So we could be back to having the major Chinese carriers flying all around the world, with multiple daily flights, and fares could be very competitive to fill those planes.

How will national carriers respond to that?

Follow that thought about the Chinese (state managed) airlines getting up and running and expanding first...
Airports want them back to generate revenue.
Other governments want them back because they deliver tourism revenues.
Business travel may not have many other options.
So, first mover advantage and getting to dictate some terms of the relationship. Seems like something straight out of the Chinese state playbook.
And I reckon plenty of people will accept and go with that because of the convenience.

Now, next step after that is solidified: imagine if all those transiting pax were told that there was no airside transfers in China and that all pax had to enter the country, collect bags and continue onto their next flight? Still okay, because there's not much competition... (and another nation of free (and paranoid) people have be doing that for ages, so fair's fair right?)

Oh and to enter the country you of course have to be fingerprinted and photographed... (and added to the giant database)

As Fred would say, 'just wondering'.

 

[p--and--t]

My 2cents worth, what most consider "normal" will not return after this is over, at least for quite some time.

Firstly, not every country will emerge from this disaster at the same time and there maybe a second wave making authorities very nervous about which restrictions they lift/impose a various junctures. Various stop/start measures.

Secondly, many businesses coffers will be at an extremely low ebb and human ingenuity being what it is within a couple months of lock-downs, devising ways of operating without having staff flying all over the place will have been implemented through necessity. The much forecast ubiquitous internet WFH dynamic (and much delayed for the last 15 years through habit & procrastination) has been force-ably introduced in a rush and will most likely settle down quickly after a few teething problems and become a new norm. Businesses still operating will see clearly over coming months the reduction in office space requirements and associated costs and general changes in their overall ways and costs of doing business.

Thirdly, even if the economy does fire up a bit in 18 months time, many people at a personal level will come out of this mess with significantly less finance resources than they had before (or even no job), have increased mortgage or rental payments to make up for negotiated deferrals, and/or reduced super balances plus additional tax burdens imposed for the guvment to recover significant outlays due to various rescue packages and increased dole payments. etc

Fourthly, some people will feel burnt by the current dilemma of being stuck overseas, flights and bookings cancelled all over the place, holidays aborted, lack of refunds, enforced quarantine measures, increased costs of travel in a smaller less competitive market and not be so emboldened to travel as they were before.

My forecast is the aviation landscape will look significantly different for at least 2-3 years, if not for the long term.

 

[albatross710]

This rise of the Chinese airlines assumes they have hordes of tourists to deposit on tours across the globe. There is also plenty of pan in the chinese mainland workforce and less demand for chinese production.

For any long haul airline, they need to be using wide body aircraft and those aircraft of lots of seats to fill.

The market will have to find the pricing to make things work. Airlines push back on airport charges, fuel is down significantly, employees wont be seeing wage rises for quite some time. We can all expect our cost of business to be lower for sometime This will be reflected in the prices we can charge for our goods and the relative prices we would pay for air travel.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

The other side of the coin to p--and---t's scenario is that a vaccine is widely available in 12 month's time, and countries heavily reliant on tourism are begging people to come to revive their economies. Entry requirements? Certificate of vaccination. Bali, Thailand, Japan, Singapore, those sorts of places could take off again pretty quick. TI will be available because folk are vaccinated.

There's also the friends and family market. And students returning home or coming back to study.

Maybe people will take shorter holidays so they don't risk being stranded overseas if there's a new outbreak.

 

[ChrisGibbs]

FWIW if and when things get moving again i think you will see corporates come out of the gates reasonably rapidly into a market that has way less capacity than pre-COVID-19. Individual consumers will take time to get their confidence back and will be guided by, amongst other sources, the Travel Insurance business who will naturally include various exclusions....

 

[dajop]

I wonder if what we will see more of in the short term, in the consumer market is more last minute travel. We generally do this in the best of times, and has served us well over many years, although it is not for everyone, and historically has never been useful at times of school holidays.

 

[ethernet]

Using OR I identified an opportunity.
The airlines give free Corona testing 11 days apart on high value passengers (because science says 94% goes up to >99% . You get to travel . Optionally on landing another pin prick test in case there is cheating.

Waiting for a vaccine is unnecessary for those who have caught it and recovered now with antibodies. The last thing goverments want is wealthy pivileged getting acess to rationed testing, then jetsetting - as they have to be seen giving lip service to this class divide thing.

Tests are getting better, and even the not so good ones, you let the copy process run longer. The plusses, Airlines can import the tests and pay for them, so no national health service can blame them for diverting resources. And testing on the international side of the barrier - is international? Begone territorial marketing exclusives.

repeat for politicians, Casino high rollers and the usual parisites. Another plus is that the airlines national carrier recovers sooner.

The negatives: Doctors can run and enjoy holidays again.

 

[theblank]

A pandemic is extremely foreseeable, and scientists have been warning Western governments about the possibility for a long time now...

everything is foreseeable. So is Nuclear destruction from a WW3, or another great depression, total blackouts, zombie apocalypse, or the sun explodiing.
It doesnt mean an airline or anyone else has to provide and be ready for every contingency. On this logic every household should have a years supply of food, off the grid power, and lots of guns.

 

[opusman]

everything is foreseeable. So is Nuclear destruction from a WW3, or another great depression, total blackouts, zombie apocalypse, or the sun explodiing.
It doesnt mean an airline or anyone else has to provide and be ready for every contingency. On this logic every household should have a years supply of food, off the grid power, and lots of guns.

Yeah, nah, not really.

 

[Franky]

everything is foreseeable. So is Nuclear destruction from a WW3, or another great depression, total blackouts, zombie apocalypse, or the sun explodiing.
It doesnt mean an airline or anyone else has to provide and be ready for every contingency. On this logic every household should have a years supply of food, off the grid power, and lots of guns.

And toilet paper...