Credit card FF points vs cashback

[WindowSeat]

Having been an FF junkie for a number of years now I can't believe I'm even considering this, but I'm struggling to justify keeping any of the frequent flyer credit cards (currently have the QF Amex Ultimate, came with 50k bonus QFF points and ANZ base FF Amex/Visa that I've had for about five years).

I'm QF SG with credit card spend approx 25k pa (so not in the realms of some on this forum, but enough to collect 25-35k points per year depending on earn rate).

Came across the ANZ Gold Rewards card (not QF) which equates to approx $100 cashback every $6700 spent with annual fee of $129. Compared to between 25-35k QFF points with a $95 fee (ANZ) and $250 fee on AX ($450 minus the free return flight so say that's $200 approx).

Options:
1. Keep the Amex, collect about 36k points at $250 net cost pa. Cancel ANZ (lose Visa)
2. Cancel the Amex, keep the ANZ AX/VI, 25k points at $95 cost pa
3. Go with ANZ Gold Rewards, collect approx $360 cash at $129 cost (net $230) pa

(3) is slightly better than (2) value-wise if you value points 1pt=1c which is fair for domestic bookings I reckon (SYD-MEL 8k pts or purchase for about $80), but could spend the cashback directly on flights (and get SCs and Points on those bookings).

I know we're not talking big numbers here, but half the fun is the puzzle itself!

Any thoughts? Am I missing something, valuing points too cheaply, not taking into account that Amex might negotiate the annual fee despite the free flight etc, should I wait to see if there are any good bonus deals between now and March when my Amex fee is due?

 

[markis10]

I think you are valuing points too cheaply, 35K is worth around 200 SCs and a weekend in Hobart, depending on your own value sets that 200 SCs could be worth $400-500 in retain QP membership for instance.

 

[wmetz]

Hi Does anyone heard any whispers about bonus transfer points coming in Sept ?

 

[straitman]

Hi Does anyone heard any whispers about bonus transfer points coming in Sept ?

Short answer --- NO
Long answer --------- NO, I have not heard anything :!:

 

[medhead]

Hi Does anyone heard any whispers about bonus transfer points coming in Sept ?

If you are talking about Qantas, I wonder if there would be any point in such a bonus promotion as the majority of people are locked into direct sweep cards.

 

[JohnK]

1. Keep the Amex, collect about 36k points at $250 net cost pa. Cancel ANZ (lose Visa)

I think you are valuing QFF points too cheaply.

Just one example for 142,500 QFF points you can book a QF Oneworld Award which is worth somewhere between $2,500-$3,500 depending on the routing you take and the time of the year.

Based on your calculated spend above the QFF points required will take 4 years to accumulate at a net cost of $1,000/pa. As I have mentioned earlier the value of the QF Oneworld Award more than makes up for the costs incurred.