BNE-MNL-BNE - What's the market?

[albatross710]

What is the demand like for this route? What are the logistics of getting this route back onto the Qantas, Jetstar or Other menu?

A couple of years ago QF19 used to drop by Brisbane to provide a direct service BNE-MNL with a return via SYD. That service ceased two+ years ago with the reason being Brisbane runway upgrade.

I notice that the PR service via Darwin is usually selling at a higher price than QF or SQ. I know that many Filipino might prefer to travel on the flag carrier but for me the one time I did it, that stop time in Darwin really really destroyed me, and I was in J. I don't consider that a direct flight. I end up going via HKG or SIN and juggling LCC connections.

I read in this thread http://www.australianfrequentflyer....-qf-bid-now-upgrades-66119-2.html#post1287407 that Mrmaxwell says the QF J cabin is always full SYD-MNL. Some demand there.

Whenever I returned on QF20 (as recent as two weeks ago), the flight is full in Y and QP/PAGS lounge overflowing prior to boarding. More signs of growing demand.

What about changing the consideration a little bit and flying direct into CRK, avoiding the inevitable MNL terminals and unpredictable traffic. The times I have arrived into CRK then driven down has been far more pleasant. Limited demand here as less connection options

I know that CebuPacific has amazing fares out of Sydney now think $400 return SYD-MNL. I also notice that Perth was on their booking options for a while but Perth has now been dropped. Would they consider BNE?

One issue I know that must be considered is the aircraft endurance. PR uses the A321 which means they need to stop in Darwin. 5J is using the A330 from SYD-MNL. PR uses A330 from Syd & MEL. I assume that the the BNE-MNL 3,596 miles would need an A330. I wonder what the smallest aircraft is for this distance? See my research below.

I'm interested to hear from others in Brisbane that would like to see a real direct service. Is there enough demand? I'm sure there are enough people doing business now that would love a Sunday flight ready for Monday business with a return the following weekend.

Is this something that Alliance might be able to do as a charter?

Alby


While pondering the range & aircraft question I found these answers, thought I'd post them here. Seems a stop in Darwin or POM is hard to avoid.

Great Circle distances
BNE-MNL 3,596 miles
BNE-CRK 3,652 miles
BNE-CEB 3,245 miles

Common aircraft, published ranges
A330 11,000 miles
A320 3,500 miles
B737-300 2,300 miles
B777-200 9,700 miles
Cessna Citation X+ 3,460 miles (10-12 Pax)
Fokker F100 1,800 miles

 

[Melburnian1]

albatross710, when considering 'demand' it emanates from both ends on a route like this.

While June 2015 is pretty much (at least in the middle) the start of low season (i.e. 'wet season') for Philippines, I am deliberately referring to it as unless a route is extremely seasonal (such as what QF appears to believe with its limited SYD - YVR in Canada flights), we have to assume that an airline will want a base number of flights throughout the year. Of course demand on the Australia to Philippines routes spikes hugely in the three weeks prior to Christmas northbound and in much of January southbound, as well as in all Australian school holidays, but there is also growing tourist and business visitor traffic (I think in July 2015 Australians heading to Philippines rose by more than 15 per cent compared with the July a year before) and a constant flow of newly settling migrants southbound, with the Filipino-born population probably around 200000 now in Oz, remembering that the last Census in Oz occurred in August 2011.

5J's MNL - SYD flights have certainly led to a dramatic rise in the number of passengers on that route.

The QF BNE - MNL and v.v. in recent years was only ever once a week, and was a SYD flight calling at BNE in each direction, so not every seat was available for local MNL - BNE or v.v. trips. Just as airlines such as AI and PR have moved away from 'tag' flights, airlines such as QF have ceased complex flight routings that involve two stops in Oz (QF81/82 SYD - ADL - SIN and v.v. was one example apart from the once a week 'extra stop' QF19 and QF20.)

Here are the BITRE figures for June 2015 - refer Table 5:

We can see that there were 978 inbound (i.e. MNL - BNE) passengers in that month and 808 north (or out) bound i.e. BNE - MNL, all of which travelled one on PR's 13 MNl - DRW - BNE - or v.v. flights in that month.

http://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/files/International_airline_activity_1506.pdf

http://www.philippineairlines.com/files/5914/4254/7064/Intl_Summer_Sep_18_2715.pdf

Of course there were also 604 southbound and 585 northbound passengers using the shorter MNL - DRW or v.v. initial or last respective leg. On a busier flight, this may mean a booking between MNL and BNE being declined because the seats are already taken by DRW-bound passengers.

So without bringing out my calculator, that is an average of 84 and 64 or so MNL - BNE or v.v. passengers either south or northbound per flight showing the influence of immigrant traffic. In school holidays, PR uses a higher capacity A321 not an A320: I have been on the former between DRW and MNL and it was close to full, so June should be one of the lower demand months.

Another rule is that whether it is a rail operator or an airline, increasing train or flight frequencies tends to stimulate demand because it gives us all the confidence that if we are delayed a day, there will be an easy route to our destination. Fares are also in the mix with 5J's arrival on MNL - SYD - MNL leading to an observed cut in fares and possibly more frequent sales by PR and QF in response:

https://www.cebupacificair.com/au-en/Pages/flight-schedule.aspx

For instance PR recently included SYD in a 'weekend sale' but it did not feature MEL, BNE or DRW where it has a monopoly on nonstop flights between those Oz airports and MNL (and generally Philippines as there are no nonstops from Oz to CEB, KLO, DVO and so on.)

JQ also flew between DRW - MNL - NRT for a while but dropped the route. It had high load factors but perhaps the yields were unsatisfactory. (JQ dropped a DRW - Vietnam route before the MNL one got the chop from memory.)

Landing or departing from CRK does not avoid the at times horrendous MNL traffic because if you are travelling to or from 'the Metro' (metropolitan Manila area), there are few ways of avoiding travel on congested streets. There is no railway to and from CRK, and at times the tollway can be congested, but it's the streets like Epifanio de.... ('EDSA' for short) that are incredibly congested. You are not allowed to use the three Metro Manila elevated railways if you have luggage.

As AFFers such as you and MrMaxwell show, there is also now a fast growing amount of business travel to Manila (and a smaller amount to CEB) due to Philippines' dominant position in providing phone agents and support to tertiary sector Oz-based businesses. I don't exactly know what the latter quite involves but I read somewhere that medical records may be one of these 'processing' areas, and obviously Philippines has a huge cost advantage for such back office tasks over Oz, and people who from my experience speak better, clearer English or write it to a higher standard than competitors in say India.

The number of Filipinos in Brisbane (or 'Queensland') is third behind NSW and Vic. From memory NSW has a 45 per cent to half share, Vic maybe 20 -25 per cent, Qld about 15 per cent and other states and the two territories - with quite a few in DRW - the remainder.

So to answer your question, demand on the BNE - MNL route would grow if 5J started or QF recommenced but to what level I do not know. All we can be confident of is that lower fares would stimulate travel and that the SYD - MNL increase in numbers can occur from both BNE and MEL if similar competition ensued because Philippines as a travel destination for Australians has a lot going for it. There's a News.com.au | News Online from Australia and the World | NewsComAu article somewhere on the Internet with lots of photos calling Philippines' 7000 plus islands 'paradise' (highlighting white beaches.)

One other little noticed fact is that Philippines is growing pretty fast economically and with its young population is starting to travel quite a bit more internationally, including to Oz. The ABS 'arrrivals and departures' show a steadily rising number of Filipinos coming to Oz. probably many visit friends or more often relatives, but more than a few now study here and I guess that more are on 'proper' tourism visits (staying in hotels or apartments.)

 

[ozbeachbabe]

Just because QF doesn't fly non-stop BNE/MNL or vv doesn't mean people don't choose to still fly QF via SYD in each direction. A lot of people would find that more convenient than buying a cheap fare on Cebu Pacific ex SYD the have to buy a separate ticket on QF or VA and have to have to collect their bags in SYD and lug them around to T1 and checkin all over again.

A lot of Philipino VFR traffic will utilise every bit of their 30 kilo checked luggage allowance where they can checkin multiple pieces up to a total weight of 30 kg vs one piece up to 23 kg or QF or VA if on a separate ticket BNE/SYD. Ex BNE they can still check bags to MNL & ditto for the return although you need to collect in SYD on the inbound journey.

 

[Melburnian1]

ozbeachbabe, I am not doubting any of what you state but one disadvantage of flying from BNE to SYD with QF, VA, JQ or TT (and then to MNL with 5J or QF) is that it is very roundabout: travelling first south, then more or less north.

The 'VFR' passengers may be more cost than time sensitive (and perhaps in many cases not care much about 'elapsed journey time' at all) but with only 300 or so seats on each A330 (and not all in Y), if QF has say 30 or 50 connecting passengers from MEL on a QF19 flight, a handful from HBA or LST and a few more from ADL plus a trickle from country NSW or NZ and many (the bulk of patronage) from SYD, that does not leave room for more than perhaps 30 to 50 from BNE. So QF is hardly a major player given that like all southeast Asian destinations there is not just a choice of (in this case) PR, 5J or QF but also one or two stop flights on SQ or MH plus low cost carriers who might run from OOL not BNE.

It continues to surprise me that QFi for instance declines to operate nonstops from MEL to KUL or MNL but naturally it has to be confident of a sufficient passenger loading at an acceptable yield to justify a multi million dollar investment in an aircraft for such routes. Similarly QFi does not operate BNE - MNL or BNE - KUL nonstop as per the OP's concerns about lack of BNE - MNL options apart from PR via DRW in terms of an international (not partly using a domestic) airline.

 

[albatross710]

Thank you Melburnian1 & OzBeachBabe for your well referred and knowledgeable responses.

I am surprised at the passenger numbers on the PR route which doesn't support my concept of the growing demand. hmmm. The PR pricing never attracts me as the price delta for the direct service is priced higher than what I will offset sitting in Changi for a couple of hours instead.

I've often struggled with the concept of having to fly backwards first to Sydney before progressing to my destination Manila. In reality, it comes down to the overall transit time, it's either sitting in Changi, HGK or SYD. This varies each trip as airline schedules change and what worked one trip may not 'work' in 6 months time. Travelling on a single ticket with QF via SYD is quite easy.

If I had 5J operating from BNE I'd have a two monthly MNL office visit scheduled for the next twelve months instead of having to juggle to optimise the best travel each few months.

Cheers


Alby

 

[Melburnian1]

As always, albatross710, where an airline next runs flights from in Oz internationally may be influenced by what deal it can come to with an airport management.

My guess is that MEL may be ahead of BNE on 5J's expansion list as Melbourne has more population (including a larger Filipino population) than Brisbane, the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast combined, but time will tell. It also depends upon the availability of A330 aircraft and most importantly the ability to fill sufficient seats at an acceptable yield to the airline. Today's lower fuel costs must help route expansion plans as did the signing of an 'improved' (i.e. more seats per week) air agreement between the two countries.

 

[ozbeachbabe]

Another thing with tag flights eg the weekly QF19 SYD/BNE/MNL is that a lot of people flying SYD/MNL would mistake the direct flight for a non-stop flight and non realise the flight stops in BNE on the outbound leg. It was direct as in it's a one plane through service but a big percentage of travellers didn't pick up on that which isn't a huge drama northbound at the start of a day flight.

In the reverse, booking a MNL/SYD flight that you mistake for being a non-stop flight becomes a hassle when you need to disembark at your first entry port to Australia where the whole flight must go through security screening on arrival after which they stay airside before reboarding the flight and clearing customs on arrival in SYD.

This was also a trap for young players when purchasing duty free in MNL as you got to donate your Johnnie Walker Blue to transit security when they do the lags check. :evil:

If your itinerary has domestic flights eg QF503 connecting to QF19 and QF20 connecting to QF516 on the return you know you have to transit via another city so you don't get any surprises on the day.