Melburnian1
Veteran Member
- Joined
- Jun 7, 2013
- Posts
- 25,486
This 11 September 2019 report won't be surprising to those who glance at the monthly figures.
Only 0.3 per cent more passengers travelled on 'regular public transport' aircraft in 2018-19 compared with 2017-18, despite annual population growth around 1.7 per cent:
Available seats were stagnant (a tiny rise of c.21.000 on a base of c.77 million.)
My inkling is that the decline in patronage has increased since 30 June as consumers rein in spending despite the low interest rate (and low CPI) environment. If Labor/Greens had been elected Federally in May, this decline would have been worse.
The major takeout is that our busiest domestic air route (second busiest worldwide), Melbourne - Sydney, declined 0.5 per cent in passenger numbers.
AFFers such as JohnK occasionally mention how as very regular travellers they notice air fares creeping up. With both majors restricting capacity and in VA's case wanting to reduce losses, this trend may continue (although at some point it must become self defeating in that putting up fares'too much' sees an even greater drop in demand.) Elasticities and all that.
A couple of previously very regular travellers I know have cut back their interstate flying. They can't tell me what percentage but when I suggested 'a fifth less than last year' neither demurred. Too small a sample, and too early in the FY given it commenced on 1 July, but if repeated by many others, it soon results in a downward spiral.
Logically, VA must be looking to cut some routes, reduce frequencies and downsize its fleet. This will see some previous travellers using other modes, travelling less or in a few cases not travelling at all.
Similarly, QF can't be immune if there is reduced business and leisure traveller spending on domestic air fares. Even if its demand drops by two per cent, because of the very high fixed costs of airlines, a drop in passengers may more than proportionally hit the bottom line.
AFFers as a group must be more savvy - or want to learn to be - than 'Joe or Jill Average' passengers, so AFFers are not really representative, but are you travelling more, less or the same domestically in the new financial year 2019-20 compared to last year?
What's the feeling among your friends? No change in domestic air travel habits, or something to report?
Only 0.3 per cent more passengers travelled on 'regular public transport' aircraft in 2018-19 compared with 2017-18, despite annual population growth around 1.7 per cent:
Available seats were stagnant (a tiny rise of c.21.000 on a base of c.77 million.)
My inkling is that the decline in patronage has increased since 30 June as consumers rein in spending despite the low interest rate (and low CPI) environment. If Labor/Greens had been elected Federally in May, this decline would have been worse.
The major takeout is that our busiest domestic air route (second busiest worldwide), Melbourne - Sydney, declined 0.5 per cent in passenger numbers.
AFFers such as JohnK occasionally mention how as very regular travellers they notice air fares creeping up. With both majors restricting capacity and in VA's case wanting to reduce losses, this trend may continue (although at some point it must become self defeating in that putting up fares'too much' sees an even greater drop in demand.) Elasticities and all that.
A couple of previously very regular travellers I know have cut back their interstate flying. They can't tell me what percentage but when I suggested 'a fifth less than last year' neither demurred. Too small a sample, and too early in the FY given it commenced on 1 July, but if repeated by many others, it soon results in a downward spiral.
Logically, VA must be looking to cut some routes, reduce frequencies and downsize its fleet. This will see some previous travellers using other modes, travelling less or in a few cases not travelling at all.
Similarly, QF can't be immune if there is reduced business and leisure traveller spending on domestic air fares. Even if its demand drops by two per cent, because of the very high fixed costs of airlines, a drop in passengers may more than proportionally hit the bottom line.
AFFers as a group must be more savvy - or want to learn to be - than 'Joe or Jill Average' passengers, so AFFers are not really representative, but are you travelling more, less or the same domestically in the new financial year 2019-20 compared to last year?
What's the feeling among your friends? No change in domestic air travel habits, or something to report?
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