Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

So after two days, that should have had the bulk of known close contacts tested. So after the numbers of the day prior 11 is quite good. Plus all are linked.

We will have to wait till the presser to get mote context though.

 

[sjk]

So after the numbers of the day prior 11 is quite good. Plus all are linked.

I’ve never understood this sort of “analysis”.

The linked cases are of course the easiest and quickest to find.

Whether or not the numbers are “good” or not depends on whether something’s being missed, which by definition you don’t know.

But it turns out the numbers weren’t actually all that “good” around the end of the previous lockdown.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I’ve never understood this sort of “analysis”.

The linked cases are of course the easiest and quickest to find.

Whether or not the numbers are “good” or not depends on whether something’s being missed, which by definition you don’t know.

But it turns out the numbers weren’t actually all that “good” around the end of the previous lockdown.

True.

The number *would* have been good if people had followed the rules and not visited family

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I’ve never understood this sort of “analysis”.

The linked cases are of course the easiest and quickest to find.

Whether or not the numbers are “good” or not depends on whether something’s being missed, which by definition you don’t know.

Well quite good is a relative term. I was fearing that they would be a lot worse by now and this is why I see these results as good.

By way of explanation (and perhaps I am wearing rose colored glasses) there was a pool of people, and not just the 3 as they as it turns out were not the index cases, who were infectious for say ten days (or more) before the tests performed over the last two days. This is a greater time period than we had with the case that seeded the MCG, Y&J and other clusters.

With Delta having been shown to have able to jump from a host to a new host in as little as two days if those earlier cases had been more active and/or infectious we could have been well above the forty cases that we are now at from among close cases. That is why I say they are relatively good so far.

Now there will be more cases as there will be people who have been infected and who have not yet been tested, and those in households living with cases are going to still turn positive.


And yes there will most likely still be some in the wild cases. But so far the restrictions that were still in place when these two clusters commenced that were not in place when the index case of the last cluster occurred may well have curtailed the rapid growth in casual contacts that were already evident by this stage in last outbreak.

But it turns out the numbers weren’t actually all that “good” around the end of the previous lockdown.

They are still to determine the source of the two clusters. One of the two may well be from new incursion.

By numbers not being "good", it probably was very small, but then by a group of households not following restrictions in attending households to meet, in not seeking testing when symptomatic and even worse in still attending work when symptomatic yes we have seen cases accelerate again.

So numbers were probably as good as you can have when they are not zero, but if people choose to ignore the virus as they did in both clusters then cases can rapidly grow.

Delta means that even "good" numbers can rapidly become "bad" numbers.

 

[Anna]

Are you sure those BBC / SBS figures are correct?

I'm sure the figures that were in the BBC report yesterday were 88.8% and 73.8% but whether the BBC got it right I don't know. However I think the BBC has a reasonable reputation (Martin Bashir Panorama interview and Jimmy Savile aside). I agree other sources give lower figures, but as a general overview 70% double vaxxed in the U.K. seems about right. Yet despite that, the UK case numbers and death numbers are still high enough to give an Aussie state premier or CHO a conniption and cause them to lock everyone down if the same was happening here.

Brad Hazzard in NSW was whinging on tv yesterday that there are 50 covid patients in ICU in NSW, and was justifying the lockdown because of that. He didn't appear to have even considered that maybe this new disease covid will be a 'game changer' for modelling how many ICU beds will be needed in Australia in future. I hope he has people considering whether current numbers of ICU beds will be enough for this new disease even when we get to 70% vaccinated, because ICU beds and staff aren't something that can be magicked up and forward planning will be needed, much harder to achieve than a lockdown. We will all be stuck with lockdowns indefinitely if people like him aren't planning properly for the changed disease landscape.

 

[justinbrett]

Cairns going into lockdown

SEQ lockdown lifted

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The new case in Cairns has Cairns Region going into a 3 day lockdown.

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk says she is very concerned about a single positive case in Cairns — a taxi driver who was infectious while in the community for 10 days.​

 

[nickykim]

I am still trying to find any official confirmation (as opposed to speculation/rumour) that the Hobsons Bay outbreak was caused by family visiting a returnee from NSW. At the moment the source has not been found, and there aren’t any backward links showing on the various charts.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I am still trying to find any official confirmation (as opposed to speculation/rumour) that the Hobsons Bay outbreak was caused by family visiting a returnee from NSW. At the moment the source has not been found, and there aren’t any backward links showing on the various charts.

There is as yet no official source for either of the two clusters. And there may well never be.

Also it is the Maribyrnong Cluster which has the stronger possible connection to NSW, and so you may mean the speculation on that cluster rather than Hobsons Bay.



With both clusters the genomics hinted that (based on what was said at the Vic Presser yesterday) there may have been a slight change from the recent Vic Outbreak which may have meant that the recent Vic Outbreak was not the source. But nothing was conclusive and more testing was being done to try and shed more light on it, though this may not result in any further clarity.

If I had to guess Hobsons Bay is possibly via the Traffic Controller or their partner as the most likely scenario.


Vic DHHS 7 Aug

Genomic testing has determined both of these outbreaks are the Delta variant of COVID-19 as are closely associated with recent clusters in NSW and Victoria. Further genomics and other investigative work are underway to try to pinpoint the exact source of infection for the original cases in these clusters.​

 

[nickykim]

Around the Melbourne western suburbs Facebook pages, the teacher is getting accused of all sorts of breaches (and my reading is she got it from her partner).

 

[lovetravellingoz]

(and my reading is she got it from her partner).

It was indicated in yesterday's presser that the index cases with both clusters was most likely not the cases which first tested positive. That is why I said that the infectious period probably commenced 10 or so days prior and not a week prior.

 

[justinbrett]

QLD CHO just said Newcastle had 11 cases yesterday - assuming those numbers will be part of today's numbers in the NSW press conference.

 

[bcworld]

And another in Armidale...more schools

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1424171597275926530

 

[lovetravellingoz]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1424174387301818370

 

[Princess Fiona]

QLD CHO just said Newcastle had 11 cases yesterday - assuming those numbers will be part of today's numbers in the NSW press conference.

7 cases in the Hunter. 6 in Newcastle, 1 in Armidale.
All but one linked so far.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

97% of those cases are either mild or have no symptoms and there are hardly any cases in hospital (10 at last count)

The vaccines work, it’s irrefutable. Go and get jabbed everyone.

Yes fully agree that the vaccines work. My concern is not at all on the health outcomes of the 93% of 16+ vaccinated. The higher the vaccination rate the better.

It also points to us needing a suitable vaccine for the very young (and yes this is already being worked on).


I tend to doubt that an 70/80% vaccination rate will be sufficient in Australia to prevent a lot on ongoing grief.. Though 70/80% will be much better than what we currently have.

 

[Anna]

stop hospitals being overwhelmed

What's worrying me is that Brad Hazzard thinks 50 covid patients in ICU is enough to justify a lockdown. I'm concerned that when 70% are vaxxed that still means 30% are not vaxxed, might get sick, might need ICU and that there might be enough of them to spook Hazzard et al into yet another lockdown.

 

[Pushka]

What's worrying me is that Brad Hazzard thinks 50 covid patients in ICU is enough to justify a lockdown. I'm concerned that when 70% are vaxxed that still means 30% are not vaxxed, might get sick, might need ICU and that there might be enough of them to spook Hazzard et al into yet another lockdown.

If he was in any other state I might agree but NSW seems the least likely to shut down. Lordy, Prof Spurrier would have us handcuffed to the walls if that was SA.

 

[Anna]

If he was in any other state I might agree but NSW seems the least likely to shut down. Lordy, Prof Spurrier would have us handcuffed to the walls if that was SA.

Exactly. But the UK figures suggest to me that she is going to need to adjust her thinking about case numbers once only 30% are left unvaxxed, because the case numbers and death numbers can still be alarming even with only 30% unvaxxed. And continual lockdowns just can't be the answer.

 

[Pushka]

Exactly. But the UK figures suggest to me that she is going to need to adjust her thinking about case numbers once only 30% are left unvaxxed, because the case numbers and death numbers can still be alarming even with only 30% unvaxxed. And continual lockdowns just can't be the answer.

Oh yes. And this like you is what Im afraid of. SA will be shut tighter than a cat's, well. She has no tolerance whatsoever for anything more than zero but once vaccinated she must change her stand. On the other hand there is an election next March and I refuse to vote for a Spurrier/Stevens package.