AS Alaska to acquire HA Hawaiian

[justinbrett]

I wonder if they will rebadge a couple of HA widebodies planes as AS and fly TYO > SEA or AUS > SEA direct to connect with their network.

There's a couple of posters on FT thinking AS is going to steal a lot of the HA widebodies to launch long haul international out of SEA.

 

[http_x92]

AS flying 787s and A330s ex-SYD? That would be something...

 

[justinbrett]

AS flying 787s and A330s ex-SYD? That would be something...

I can't see AS flying direct to Australia from SEA (but could from HNL) unless they get let into the QF/AA JV.

If they were to be allowed in to that, it would be on like Donkey Kong. I doubt that would get approved though, unless perhaps they offer VA into the UA/NZ JV as a counterweight.

 

[http_x92]

I think VA is going to let go of HA eventually as NZ (albeit still pending) will be its partner for flights to the Pacific Islands and earn VA SCs and points on those flights.

Or it could be like QR with VA and QF...

 

[kangarooflyer88]

They've excluded SYD-HNL and SYD-JFK in those numbers

Nobody operates SYD-JFK at the moment although yes, Qantas does have SYD-HNL.

UA will lose 10 weekly flights (SYD-IAH daily and BNE-LAX 3x weekly) come summer, flying 372 by your units.

Has the IATA Northern Hemisphere schedule even been confirmed yet?

 

[justinbrett]

Nobody operates SYD-JFK at the moment although yes, Qantas does have SYD-HNL.

Has the IATA Northern Hemisphere schedule even been confirmed yet?

QF operates SYD-JFK. Sold as a single flight QF3/4. The fact it's stopping in AKL instead of LAX is neither here nor there; it's carrying pax from SYD to JFK.

UA has already announced the routes it's pulling for summer.

 

[justinbrett]

I think VA is going to let go of HA eventually as NZ (albeit still pending) will be its partner for flights to the Pacific Islands and earn VA SCs and points on those flights.

Or it could be like QR with VA and QF...

HA is about to lose its agency. AS is wearing the pants. There is only going to be one loyalty program. Any decisions will be for both airlines.

It's not a matter of HA retaining VA, it's AS picking up VA. That's not going to happen. It's nothing like the QR situation, two airlines that never got on - QF and AS are very close partners and their relationship predates AS being in oneworld. Plus, if AS annoys QF, QF is just going to launch all its connecting pax at AA instead and AS will come off second best. For what? The relationship between HA and VA is barely existent.

I don't think it will be a matter of VA letting go, I think it won't get a say in the matter.

The VA/NZ deal is only for Trans-Tasman, not Pacific Island flights, and any route served by both airlines is automatically carved out.

 

[bigpete]

And this may quash all hopes of that returning.

Hawaiian's 787 deliveries (n=12) are two years behind schedule. As capacity comes online the BNE/HNL flights may well return.

 

[HS-TQE]

Hawaiian's 787 deliveries (n=12) are two years behind schedule. As capacity comes online the BNE/HNL flights may well return.

MEL-HNL would be ahead of BNE-HNL for HA at this stage, assuming AS doesn't "do a VX" and cancel the entire 787 order, speed up the Airbus retirements and just orders more 737MAX to replace the entire HA fleet

 

[bigpete]

MEL-HNL would be ahead of BNE-HNL for HA at this stage

Prior to COVID, Brisbane was a regular staple in Hawaiian Airlines’ Australian network. Hawaiian, in this article from 2022 said '... we don’t have Melbourne in our sights.’ Do you have a more recent update?

Hawaiian Airlines charts its next chapter with new aircraft – and potentially, new lounges

We catch up with Andrew Stanbury, Hawaiian Airlines' Regional Director for Australia/NZ, for an exclusive look at what's on the horizon.

www.pointhacks.com.au

 

[justinbrett]

MEL-HNL would be ahead of BNE-HNL for HA at this stage, assuming AS doesn't "do a VX" and cancel the entire 787 order, speed up the Airbus retirements and just orders more 737MAX to replace the entire HA fleet

I definitely think they‘d reinstate BNE before adding MEL. They’d have a monopoly on the route, and also offer people in BNE more connections to mainland US (Fewer routes out of BNE than MEL). They can also do BNE with a single aircraft, MEL pushes the return mission over 24 hours (The flight to MEL is almost two hours longer each way)

However if you listen to the comments from AS CEO I think he has plans for AS branded services out of SEA. Not necessarily to Australia, but generally in the Asia Pacific. Possibly Australia.

 

[SYD]

However if you listen to the comments from AS CEO I think he has plans for AS branded services out of SEA. Not necessarily to Australia, but generally in the Asia Pacific. Possibly Australia.

They’re going to need a bigger boat! Well aircraft at least. There’s not much beyond Hawaii to get to in a B737 from SEA - let alone the unpleasantness of narrow body longhaul.

Some additional B78x in the mix operating out of SEA (and maybe SFO) could be complimentary to other OW airlines?

 

[justinbrett]

They’re going to need a bigger boat! Well aircraft at least. There’s not much beyond Hawaii to get to in a B737 from SEA - let alone the unpleasantness of narrow body longhaul.

Some additional B78x in the mix operating out of SEA (and maybe SFO) could be complimentary to other OW airlines?

I meant he has his eyes on HA's 787s.

 

[SYD]

I meant he has his eyes on HA's 787s.

Yep, I figured that but I can’t see them dropping the Japanese leisure market or even Oz sectors?

HA apparently has some profitability issues - pinching assets won’t help (we’ve seen that with AN and NZ….).

Similarly, if AS won’t to transform into a long haul plus existing regional/domestic ops, they’d want to really think through what they’re doing. It could end in tears.

I would have thought retaining HA as the long haul and inter island arm would make sense. Let the merger allow them to rationalise the domestic ops?

 

[elanshin]

I meant he has his eyes on HA's 787s.

Possibly even the 330s if they want to expand quickly. Refurbish and rebrand them as AS and they can immediately do duty to Asia from SEA.

The 330s were previously on the way out, but maybe AS will now take them for SEA long haul.

 

[SYD]

Possibly even the 330s if they want to expand quickly. Refurbish and rebrand them as AS and they can immediately do duty to Asia from SEA.

The 330s were previously on the way out, but maybe AS will now take them for SEA long haul.

Except AS pride themselves as being an all Boeing airline.

 

[justinbrett]

Except AS pride themselves as being an all Boeing airline.

I'm thinking leave HA with the A330s and take 787s for AS.

HA is losing money hand over fist. I think AS services from SEA to those destinations would be at least as profitable, and likely more profitable. The reason HA pulled out (seasonally) of AKL was due to profitability (exchange rate), not demand.

The question isn't what's best for HA, it's what's best for the new AS group, of which HA is a small and loss making part. In any case HA have many widebody routes to the mainland that don't need to be widebodies.

 

[SYD]

I'm thinking leave HA with the A330s and take 787s for AS.

That would make sense.

HA is losing money hand over fist. I think AS services from SEA to those destinations would be at least as profitable, and likely more profitable. The reason HA pulled out (seasonally) of AKL was due to profitability (exchange rate), not demand.

That was the gist of my first comment - open new routes.

In any case HA have many widebody routes to the mainland that don't need to be widebodies.

Yep. Also what I mentioned earlier. Remove duplication and right size the capacity to those domestic routes from HI to mainland (including Anchorage…).

Didn’t someone here specifically want to fly to ANC via HI to avoid LAX/SFO?

 

[justinbrett]

That would make sense.

That was the gist of my first comment - open new routes.

Yep. Also what I mentioned earlier. Remove duplication and right size the capacity to those domestic routes from HI to mainland (including Anchorage…).

Didn’t someone here specifically want to fly to ANC via HI to avoid LAX/SFO?

HNL-ANC is just a 737. It almost sold out last time I flew on it, and the fares were sky high (not peak season either). It's not duplicated (AS only). I would say it's a very profitable route with no direct competition. Post merger this route will be a no-brainer.

 

[elanshin]

Ultimately I think AS doesn't know exactly what to do either at this exact point and will probably analyse HA's data and metrics more.

I could see a world where they use the retiring 330s to just gauge demand and test routes for long term expansion. As for the Boeing vs Airbus, I don't think this will be exactly the same as the VX situation as AS currently doesn't have widebodies right now and the whole industry is hungry for widebodies so this is basically a cheap way for them to obtain some.

The other middle of the road method is to just have HA fly to SEA directly for now. Run NRT <> SEA as a HA flight or AS (operated by HA) for example. For all booking purposes both show up on AS / HA the same and is treated the same, you just have a HA livery and configuration.