Are there blackout dates for bus class redemptions on Cathay or Qatar?

[Oli]

Hi all,

- Planning on travelling SYD-CDG, departing late-ish Dec 26 - returning Late-ish Jan 27:
- Looking to redeem 4 adult Bus Class tickets on CX or Qatar.

Tempted to pick one of these 2 airlines and transfer before the upcoming Amex devaluation on 15/12/2025, or even before 30/09 for CX, to make the most of the current 10% bonus.

- Are any of you aware of blackout dates to redeem Bus Class seats on CX or Qatar at that time of year, or would you say it's a rather safe bet?

My current Amex card does not allow redemptions on QF and I have not been considering SG at this stage, as conversion is already higher than the aforementioned 2 programs; it is not being updated on 15/12 and SG is increasing miles required... (I know from experience I could find seats on SG though...)

So the dilemma is:
- Keep all Amex points on card for now and only transfer to an airline once redemption availability is a sure thing in Jan-Feb 2026, but by then transfers to CX or QR will require 50% more Amex points
or
- Take the calculated risk of transferring now-ish to either Cathay or Qatar to benefit from the current transfer rates, under the assumption these programs allow for redemptions year round and there is high probability of being able to redeem...

Thanks in advance for any help and experience you may be able to share.

First ever post on AFF - tried the search function to see If I could find the answer and read a fair few sub-threads... Apologies if starting a new one is an AFF "faux-pas" . Cheers!

 

[levelnine]

You're unlikely to get 4x J on either airline. Maybe 2x saver and 2x flexi on QR if you're really, really lucky.

And yes, both do not guarantee availability over peak season, so they may release nothing.

Singapore is the only airline flying to Europe that reliably releases 4x J seats at the saver level.

 

[Oli]

You're unlikely to get 4x J on either airline. Maybe 2x saver and 2x flexi on QR if you're really, really lucky.

And yes, both do not guarantee availability over peak season, so they may release nothing.

Singapore is the only airline flying to Europe that reliably releases 4x J seats at the saver level.

Thanks for the reply! Much appreciated. Flying in pairs on different airlines/days is definitely an option. Still does not change the fact they may release nothing as you pointed out. Have a great day!!!

 

[Human]

would you say it's a rather safe bet?

It is most definitely NOT a safe bet!

You're looking to fly to Paris, in Business class, during the school holidays, for 4 people. On Cathay or Qatar your chances are ... well, not zero, but not far off zero. If you want to fly 4 people in Business on the same flight, you'll probably need to book 2, if they become available, 360 days out on release, and wait to see if the airline releases another 2 in the weeks or days before the flight. As @levelnine stated, your chances on Singapore Airlines are a bit better.

If you want to fly on Cathay or Qatar, given it'll be school holidays and demand will be through the roof, you need to check not just the DAY that award seats are released, but the MINUTE. On Cathay, from memory, it's midnight Hong Kong time -- so be up at 3am AEDT to grab the reward seats before anyone else does. With Qatar it might be midnight GMT but I'm not sure about that. Do your research.

Really I would be keeping your points in AmEx and transferring to the programme that has availability at the time. And be prepared to be very, very flexible. You want Sydney to Paris. At that time of year, Adelaide to Milan or Brisbane to Manchester is close enough: grab them if they're available.

Final point: the biggest bottleneck will be flights into and out of Australia. Consider flying Economy to a south-east Asian city and Business the rest of the way (I had to do that myself recently when I flew MEL-SYD-BKK in Economy and BKK-HEL-CDG in Business).

And welcome to AFF!

 

[RooFlyer]

Welcome to AFF @Oli . Good advice above.