Melburnian1
Veteran Member
- Joined
- Jun 7, 2013
- Posts
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Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics has just issued its August 2013 summary of domestic airline routes in Australia.
While we should never read too much into one month's figures, there was anaemic growth in August 2013 with nationwide airline 'regular public transport' passenger numbers rising only 1.9 per cent. Meanwhile the number of flights decreased by one per cent, which naturally pushed up the seat occupancy percentage a bit.
In calendar 2012, Australia's population rose by 1.6 per cent so 1.9 per cent is hardly anything major for the airlines to celebrate about (unless one airline stole market share from the other, which lately is VA's claim about what it is allegedly doing to QF). Optimists may suggest that any growth above population growth is good, but not so long ago domestic air passenger numbers were growing faster. For instance in the year to May 2013, domestic airline network wide passenger numbers rose by 4.2 per cent.
Lowlights included the second busiest domestic air route in Australia between Brisbane and Sydney where monthly patronage comparing August 2013 with August 2012 rose only 0.3 per cent and the by far busiest route, Melbourne to Sydney or vice versa where the number of travellers only increased 0.7 per cent.
This is a poor performance and reflects relatively low consumer confidence. Throw into the mix Australians' continuing willingness (if they can afford it) to holiday overseas not locally and one does not have a bright outlook for domestic flights.
These figures make it unsurprising that the stockmarket analysts are busily revising expected losses upwards for QF (and may be doing the same for VA, but I have not seen any media references to the latter). The second half of the financial year is traditionally the weaker one financially for Australia's airlines.
Should this not so great performance continue, it would have to call into question VA's plans for TT to acquire what for it is a large number of new aircraft.
Similarly JQ may find that Dreamliners notwithstanding, it is quite hard to attract growing numbers of passengers to its domestic air routes.
While we should never read too much into one month's figures, there was anaemic growth in August 2013 with nationwide airline 'regular public transport' passenger numbers rising only 1.9 per cent. Meanwhile the number of flights decreased by one per cent, which naturally pushed up the seat occupancy percentage a bit.
In calendar 2012, Australia's population rose by 1.6 per cent so 1.9 per cent is hardly anything major for the airlines to celebrate about (unless one airline stole market share from the other, which lately is VA's claim about what it is allegedly doing to QF). Optimists may suggest that any growth above population growth is good, but not so long ago domestic air passenger numbers were growing faster. For instance in the year to May 2013, domestic airline network wide passenger numbers rose by 4.2 per cent.
Lowlights included the second busiest domestic air route in Australia between Brisbane and Sydney where monthly patronage comparing August 2013 with August 2012 rose only 0.3 per cent and the by far busiest route, Melbourne to Sydney or vice versa where the number of travellers only increased 0.7 per cent.
This is a poor performance and reflects relatively low consumer confidence. Throw into the mix Australians' continuing willingness (if they can afford it) to holiday overseas not locally and one does not have a bright outlook for domestic flights.
These figures make it unsurprising that the stockmarket analysts are busily revising expected losses upwards for QF (and may be doing the same for VA, but I have not seen any media references to the latter). The second half of the financial year is traditionally the weaker one financially for Australia's airlines.
Should this not so great performance continue, it would have to call into question VA's plans for TT to acquire what for it is a large number of new aircraft.
Similarly JQ may find that Dreamliners notwithstanding, it is quite hard to attract growing numbers of passengers to its domestic air routes.
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