Airfares to US to drop?

[justinbrett]

Ok so you are saying that airfares are unlikely to go down as more people are travelling to USA ?

No, just reporting the facts. Others can come up with their own conclusions. It might explain why they haven’t yet

 

[ellen10]

Interesting I just read this letter to the editor in the Herald travel section. My neighbour has her interview on Monday.

[td]

I had to re-route my flights after US denied my ESTA with no explanation

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[td]

I will be 83 soon and in late February I booked two back-to-back trips to South and Central America in October for what will probably be my final major trip. Qantas and American Airlines were reserved with one night in Miami, Florida, each way. My initial application for an ESTA (Electronic System for Travel Authorisation) was denied without a reason. I then applied for a consular interview, with the first available being late January 2026 (four months after my proposed travel). I was then advised to apply through US GovAssist (a US commercial entity to support applications via the Visa Waiver Program).

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[td]

After 106 emails, two phone calls to the US Consulate in Sydney and two from US GovAssist, I’ve finally been notified that my request for expedited approval under the Visa Waiver program has been denied, again with no reason given.

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[td]

I’ve now booked flights, at a cost of more than $15,000, through Santiago, Chile and Lima, Peru. My travel insurance was a whopping $4000, which will help with the non-refunded portion of the Qantas flights though apparently American Airlines will not refund or allow cancellation for their sectors. Ultimately, it’s a relief not to be transferring through the US as I will be avoiding any further complications as experienced by many recent travellers there. Jennifer Dewar, Double Bay NSW

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[dajop]

Australian arrivals into the US increased year on year for the month of April, compared to April 24. Only by 1%, but an increase none the less.

This is the same source the media used to report the 7% decline for the month of March. It's also a 50% increase in the numbers from March which was definitely a slow month.

It is very much read into it what you will.

Always difficult to do year on year comparisons with March and April due to the effect of Easter. Good Friday was on 29 March in 2024 and this year 20 April. So the decline in March could well be in part attributable to timing of Easter.

Likewise with February comparisons - 1.7% increase in arrivals reported this year compared to last. But a 5.4% increase in average daily arrivals in Feb 2025 vs Feb 2024.

What is is they say about statistics?

 

[justinbrett]

It is very much read into it what you will.

Always difficult to do year on year comparisons with March and April due to the effect of Easter. Good Friday was on 29 March in 2024 and this year 20 April. So the decline in March could well be in part attributable to timing of Easter.

Likewise with February comparisons - 1.7% increase in arrivals reported this year compared to last. But a 5.4% increase in average daily arrivals in Feb 2025 vs Feb 2024.

What is is they say about statistics?

This is exactly what I said about the March statistics when the media went crazy reporting a 7% drop. It was completely misleading. I specifically said the later Easter could easily explain it.

All in all though it’s clear the stats don’t back up the horror stories coming out of Europe. They might come in subsequent months but it’s not here yet.

The lack of comment here and lack of reporting on these stats just show people only use stats to get their point across. They’re not interested when it doesn’t suit their narrative.

 

[I love to travel]

If Canada is an example, then airfares will be the same but with less flights. AC has reduced a lot of capacity (for example here Air Canada Sep/Oct 2025 US Service Changes – 11MAY25 — AeroRoutes )
Prices however appear to be typical

 

[cove]

Mrscove and I watched a steady stream of arrivals heading into the “little room” for further immigration questioning as we were in a line to get processed. I started thinking that the little room must now be a lot larger now.

 

[Aeryn]

Interesting I just read this letter to the editor in the Herald travel section.

It might be prudent in these uncertain times to apply for the ESTA (or check status of current ESTA) before booking any non-refundable/ non-flexible flights, tours or accommodation.

 

[RSD]

Mrscove and I watched a steady stream of arrivals heading into the “little room” for further immigration questioning as we were in a line to get processed. I started thinking that the little room must now be a lot larger now.

Hmmm - status run to LAX with shopping trip built in can wait I think

 

[cove]

We were asked almost no questions once we made it to the actual immigration officer. Suggest you go to the toilet before getting in the line up as the wait time was about 75 minutes in Los Angeles yesterday.