I buy points all the time - but - only when a bonus is included, eg, now.
I don't drink so the wine club is of no value to me - and I'm not going to buy them and try and resell!
I only redeem at J and F so the reality is that I'm always paying less by points than cash. Admittedly, the value in purchase and use has devalued over the years but it is still much, much cheaper to buy points than cash fares.
We redeem at least twice a year on long haul (we don't use points on domestic ever - no value even on my argument).
I've been flying this way for over 20 years. These days I don't have to worry about preplanning too much - retired - so the "new" short notice availability actually seems to help me.
Admittedly, QF are the worst value redemptions due to the exorbitant fees they charge but it still meets my saving on cash fares goals.
Finnair (currently on sale too) are good value redemptions and going anywhere via Helsinki is OK. By the by, I did a stop-over in HEL last month and loved the city.
Alaska points are simply wonderful with redemptions across OneWorld with next to no fees.
American points seem to be OK (well for me) but their metal is generally atrocious and don't start me about their cabin crews.
I've just drawn down all my points except for QF on a sector by sector RTW trip using Finnair, Alaska, American and Qantas points. No dramas at all getting ticketed for ADL-SYD-DBX-HAM-HEL-DFW-SEA-ICN-KUL-ADL over six weeks. Off to the USA west coast later in the year.
As I say not being too worried about "when" is advantageous too.
So - only buy on special, only redeem on J and F, only redeem on long haul, only use the multiple city booking engine if using QF points, don't be frightened to buy AA and AS points and never use BA (metal laughably bad, likewise cabin crew - and if landing/departing in the UK the govt fees are really, really bad on top of BA's cruel fees).
And if you do drink (or resell) wine then take the advice of the wine clubbers above - it's really good.
Happy to take queries. You can criticise my methodology too if you like - but I doubt that it will change me now

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