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We have no idea what Turkish has or will be approved for. This is a huge misunderstanding of the whole process. Australia don't approve anything in this regard. Turkey and Australia - as countries - have agreed to increase the bilateral capacity available to both countries from 7 to 21 weekly...

A little follow-up in light of the expansion of Vietnam and Turkey bilaterals last week: https://analyticflying.com/vietnam-and-turkey-show-qatar-how-to-go-about-it/

Btw, this is likely a planning concern for them on potential non-stop Australian flights, particularly why they are looking at one-stop flights instead. They have a somewhat dens cabin on the A359 and B789 (more dense than QF on the B789, and even more dense than DL on the A359), but their...

Soft product = food, service, ammenities, etc Hard product = seats, entertainment system, wifi, etc TK's hard product is pretty varied: Long haul widebodies (B77W, A350, B787, A333, A332 (5x)): lie flat business class with "suites" on the A350s and B787s, but the dreaded middle seat on older...

Agree, nothing flash. But a QF 737 with 2x2, 37x22 is rather flash compared to BA's 3x3 with blocked middle seat at 30x17. 10 million kms flown and I can't say I've ever explicitly purchased a stand alone short haul business (different in medium and long haul where I need to work or sleep). I...

I guess it's somewhat about expectations. If you are not familiar with it it can really be a surprise to rock up on your connection after a long haul and see the middle seat blocked and realise this is "business" class if you're used to short haul business in other regions. It also depends on...

I think I may have overcomplicated the point. We don't know the exact number, but we know the actual minimum and maximum, which allows us to draw a clear conclusion. The total number of seats on the aircraft of EK's flights from AUS-NZ-AUS in 2016 was 1,348,453 and we know that they carried...

We focus on capacity since this is the metric that ACCC use to set the conditional benchmarks. The article does refer to pax at points as well, but this is less of the ACCC's mode of anlaysis. But I think it's a poor assumption that most pax were transiting. We know that in 2016 (EK's peak)...

Possibly, but you're looking at a very small segment of capacity nearly two months out. Look in mid Dec and JQ are charging $561 for a starter fare on the same route. Same day, JQ are charging $179 for a starter fare on MEL-BNE. Point being, the competitive issues are mostly seen during times of...

Somewhat. South Africa received attention in the original 2013 application. I suspect it was clear that ACCC had reservations, particularly in the context of the old QF-SAA partnership that they canned. There are a number of other exclusions that one might consider self imposed, but are...

No one cares about trans-Tasman except the >7 million annual passengers. We have a single aviation market with NZ, hence the fifth freedom, but it's tiny tiny capacity. In 2022, fifth freedom carriers accounted for 2.7% of total trans-Tasman pax.

Indeed, it's not a fait accompli that EK would have maintained their schedule as is, however at it's peak, they carried an awful lot of trans Tasman traffic - 12% of all trans-Tasman pax in 2016 (not capacity, and not continuing pax, but between points in Aus and NZ)! I indicate that anything...

Indeed, fully agree with that. But this doesn't extend to trans-Tasman. JV approvals are very explicit about geography. For example, the QF-MU covers just China, nothing onward, while QF-EK's own JV excludes specific points in Europe and Africa. ACCC can easily exclude trans-Tasman, or create...

Seat capacity, pax numbers, short term arrivals and returning residents.

Possibly, but it really is a critique of the ACCC reactiveness & analysis. I don't see the case for blocking QF-MU either. The context and analysis of all are important. Which 5th freedom flights? I don't see a return of SQ to trans Tasman. QR are out. MU and OD is rather small in comparison to...

I'm not sure what you mean by the small Trans Tasman element? Trans Tasman is the largest international market to/from Australia, but also now the least competitive of all major markets. It's also a phenomenally important part of the QF-EK JV and rather inexplicable that the ACCC have given...

A new analysis considers the ACCC's decision to block the renewal of the Qantas-China Eastern joint venture while simultaneously approving the renewal of the Qantas-Emirates joint venture for an additional five years. The analysis considers the evolution of the capacity on overlapping routes in...

Fifth freedom routes are not that easy for foreign airlines to make money on. See the previously linked article ...

For what it's worth, the current ACCC authorisation (which expires in March 2024 anyway) only allowed QF and MU coordination between China and Australia, not on onward connections beyond Australia.

Just because you've never had success doesn't mean it's systematic. But also, why the assumption that F is full due to complementary upgrades? They do sell these seats, and they do have other mechanisms of upgrading (with net revenue impact). The assumption that F0 means that complementary...