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Not sure why it's interesting as they're not likely utilising a longhaul configuration on the XLR for close to a decade. It's a B738 replacement for them. It will have 23 to 26 more seats than the B738 so the big question is whether that necessitates a 4th lavatory. I suspect it does, but we...

I think you're massively over interpreting that article. Scale-wise, it'll enable them to be self-sufficient but whether they eventually develop that capacity and utilise it remains to be seen. It takes a lot more than just building flashy facilities. One of the challenges for the A380 ha been...

That text wasn't quote from the article. In the analyis we sperate storage from maintenance, so the analysis focus first on RTS which is up to 9/10. And then separately on maintenance. The analysis highlights that there are 3 aircraft in D-check, but that availability is only 60% as a 4th has...

Most EK A380 heavy maintenance is outsourced. Their fleet is so big they use multiple providers for C/Ds including LTP in MNL, and GAMECO at CAN.

There are no assumptions! That's a generalisation for background. We estimated availability by actual C/D check by utilising ADS-B data knowing where they send aircraft for the C/D checks. A330s in MNL or BNE, B787s in HKG or at base, A380s at AUH, etc. The point about the background is that...

That's literally what the data shows! A380 has maintained 60% availability in May, June, July and August. While C, K, L have all been out for that time, other frames have rotated through for C-checks. The point that I was making was that 7/10 were in the fleet, however availability was only 60%...

No, all A380 D-checks are outsourced. What's noticeable is that globally A380 D-checks have been very concentrated among a few MROs. We're seeing BA, LH, QF, EY, EK use the same few MROs for C and D-checks on A380s. Suspect this is because the aircraft became a bit of a niche pretty quickly...

The analysis I posted counts the fleet availability on a day by day basis. Measured number of days per fleet type by month versus maximum. I'm not sure the A330s have been pulled from Transcon that much. We've seen a lot less Trans Tasman though, but the point that I was making is should they...

Thanks for reading :-) Yeah, it certainly was a Black Swan event but there's a strong argument to be made that QF took an unnecessarily conservative approach. That certainly affected their recovery. But we're well beyond the recovery and beyond them being unlucky in terms of some D-check...

100% they'd still be sitting awaiting their D-check. Even LH and EK are running well behind on A380 D-checks. No idea how people expect QF to somehow jump the queue.

I get it, but also think that people get blinkered by recency bias. It was funny when people celebrated Joyce's demise. I argued at the time that it's all good and well, but that people shouldn't expect any change. Companies are more than one person and that Hudson wasn't likely to be different...

Net cargo revenue by FY ($ million): 2018: 895 2019: 971 2020: 1045 2021: 1316 2022: 1963 2023: 1380 2024: 1211

Agreed. The A380s have become a huge drag and the impact on capacity is relatively magnified. But there's an incongruency in the argument that people are making that capacity is down yet the fleet is over utilised. I was interested in the fleet availability and did an analysis on it a few weeks...

I'm not ignoring that. I'm questioning what's systematic/non-systematic, and what's causing them. From my vantage point working in the industry (not with Qantas) we're seeing a very different world compared to a few years ago generating a myriad of evolving operational challenges and...

So just anecdotes framed by recency bias? I'm not trying to argue that things are rosy, but I'm not sure that anecdotes are useful other than confirming one's priors. Most of the A330 coming into international aren't coming off transcon, but off the triangle and Tasman. The corollary is whether...

So just vibes? Is there any evidence of systematic changes in reliability? Propping up? Or testament to an adaptable fleet?

Entire 747 fleet? It was 5 aircraft remaining in March 2020 and their retirement was accelerated a whole 6 months. Point is that fleet has evolved - that was always the plan. You're somewhat missing the point - that market level capacity is down a lot and Qantas (airline and group) have...

This is somewhat didactic. The pandemic created a cargo boom and airlines are earning a lot more from cargo now than pre-pandemic. Similarly the now orphan B767F was likely suffering from a high fixed cost base. Converting the A330s was a good option rather than waiting for or competing for slim...

Why does it infer that Qantas should do it because they do? They're operating different cabin densities with different operational constraints. Then add in different regulatory requirements, EDTO, etc. I should have been a little more specific - it's not a payload restriction in a typical sense...

Missed the discussion earlier in the week. Our article didn't cover some of the background at the time but it's certainly part of the context now. Following up on some of the discussion: The oldest B738s are nearly 23 years old. They'll be due their next D-check around 24 years old...