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Worst worded apology I’ve seen in recent history.

Over 1,000 cases in Tokyo for the first time today... and also over 1,300. They weren’t even able to count them all by the usual announcement time. Getting a test January 1-3 will not be easy.

I disagree. From a travel perspective (and many others), we're worse off.

Some of us actually work in the space. We just realize that it's a tad more complicated than you seem to allow for in your little amateur ethical interludes.

You might very well turn out to be right. But it'll take more than just that to get the borders open again. Including a national government that is proactive in seeking open borders.

You keep saying the "if" part like it's a done deal. It's not. And severity will remain a function of infection numbers, even if the coefficients change.

Yes. Of course it does. Because otherwise how do you protect the vulnerable (who will not suddenly cease to exist) without completely isolating them? The whole point is that there is still too much that remains to be seen. You can't just point to trial results and then tell me what degree of...

Only if you completely ignore transmissibility. Or did you fail to notice that this thing spreads fairly easily? It may very well turn out that transmissibility is also significantly impeded by the vaccines. But it will be a long time before we actually know that. And longer for policymakers to...

People will continue to differ in their interpretations of "on a mass scale". Remember that Australia will be one of the very few countries to face the prospect of rising case numbers once 'free' borders open... if this year's death toll is considered unacceptable, then you're setting a pretty...

But they will care for long enough to keep interfering with prospects for international travel until well into 2022.

It would take a huge backdown by the IOC and JOC for the Olympics to be considered compatible with any sort of bubble from a 'full participation' perspective. Which doesn't mean it won't happen... Japan isn't a realistic bubble candidate for Australia anyway, even if bubbles were being...

Around five weeks later: 3,792 so far today, including 884 in Tokyo and 466 in Kanagawa. Tokyo positivity rate 7.6%.

Much of it irrational and unnecessary. And some will quite rightly contend that NSW can. If the policy settings aren’t adjusted at some point, no one’s going to be going anywhere for a long time.

No kidding. But others may be happy enough for the people who are restricting free movement to lose out.

Play the Melbourne Boxing Day test, which has history attached. Play the Sydney New Year’s test, ditto. And then if QLD can’t get their act together in time for the fourth test, it’s their loss.

Back-to-back Sydney tests would make for great comic relief: https://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/we-can-run-two-tests-the-extraordinary-plan-to-save-the-sydney-test-20201223-p56psj.html

I didn’t say forever, just not early in 2022 for anything like casual travel. On top of everything else imagine the political maneuvering that will be required when Australia and a very small number of other nations are watching their infections and deaths rise while the rest of the world is...

They kind of go together from a policy perspective. The rosiest scenario I have heard at the government level is leaving for a 2021 overseas Xmas (after three more three-month extensions of the travel ban) and coming back without hotel quarantine in 2022. But that won’t happen.

No you can’t, and won’t be able to for some time. The Australian government is working under the assumption that departures might be freed up somewhat by around this time next year, and I see no prospect whatsoever of that being brought forward and every possibility of it being pushed out. I...

Out by around three orders of magnitude.