Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[justinbrett]

With WA and Qld not wanting to open at 80% of 16+, i wonder if the planned BNE-ORD route that nver started due to Covid, might become SYD-ORD, would love that as prefer to avoid LAX.

Probably not, distance is 8022 NM which is quite a bit above the published maximum range (7530), from BNE it's 7735 and PER-LHR is 7830.

So I think it would be fairly weight restricted and not worth their while.

But if it's going to be mostly leisure travel, perhaps something adventurous like SYD-LAS-ORD, even if it only stops in LAS on the Westbound direction.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

I am pretty sure this guy is independent but this new calculation makes me raise an eyebrow and listen out for the sound of goalposts being moved

now a 90% calculation ...

 

[mviy]

I am pretty sure this guy is independent but this new calculation makes me raise an eyebrow and listen out for the sound of goalposts being moved

now a 90% calculation ...

At some point there'll be a ceiling of those willing to go and get vaccinated.

90% is a nice aspirational goal but may/may not be realistic. They could set some non-travel incentives such as no longer need to wear a mask in a supermarket if fully vaccinated if we reach 90% or getting rid of QR check-ins etc. There is the travel incentive of phase D as well that eventually will need some kind of a target.

Let's hope NSW reaches 90% first dose in about 15 days and VIC in about 40 days (or hopefully much sooner as supply ramps up).

If we open up as planned at 80% fully vaccinated the hope would be that the fully vaccinated numbers would continue to climb. Most people leaving with the quarantine requirements on return would want to go for at least a month one would think which would give time for the vaccination rates to climb further prior to their return.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Officially opening to 12-15 is likely to be some sort of handbrake to achieving 16+ %. So this might really affect those more than 30 days from the target on first dose.

 

[louie-m]

90% is a nice aspirational goal but may/may not be realistic. They could set some non-travel incentives such as no longer need to wear a mask in a supermarket if fully vaccinated if we reach 90% or getting rid of QR check-ins etc. There is the travel incentive of phase D as well that eventually will need some kind of a target.

I think these things - in fact most of the day to day "incentives" - are a waste of time. The sort of people that have so little regard for their community that they refuse to get vaccinated are highly unlikely to carry on adhering to rules which have been dropped for the vaccinated. And no-one will be checking whether someone not wearing a mask in a supermarket or not using QR check-ins has been vaccinated or not. The only ones which may work are those that are 100% checked - such as getting on a flight or getting a permit to cross a border.

 

[burmans]

I think these things - in fact most of the day to day "incentives" - are a waste of time. The sort of people that have so little regard for their community that they refuse to get vaccinated are highly unlikely to carry on adhering to rules which have been dropped for the vaccinated. And no-one will be checking whether someone not wearing a mask in a supermarket or not using QR check-ins has been vaccinated or not. The only ones which may work are those that are 100% checked - such as getting on a flight or getting a permit to cross a border.

I think this post puts all who have not had the vaccine in the same bucket as refusing to get the vaccine. But there has been plenty of research that the anti-vax group is somewhat less than 10%, the rest are hesitant for some reason and incentives may well work on them.

 

[Batterytraveller]

This is promising.

Japan business lobby seeks to end quarantine for vaccinated arrivals - The Mainichi

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's largest business lobby on Monday called for the government to promptly consider exempting overseas arrivals who are fully vac

mainichi.jp

 

[JB expat]

I think these things - in fact most of the day to day "incentives" - are a waste of time. The sort of people that have so little regard for their community that they refuse to get vaccinated are highly unlikely to carry on adhering to rules which have been dropped for the vaccinated. And no-one will be checking whether someone not wearing a mask in a supermarket or not using QR check-ins has been vaccinated or not. The only ones which may work are those that are 100% checked - such as getting on a flight or getting a permit to cross a border.

There are things that may matter - no entrance to any theatre (movie or live), museum, stadium, sporting arena, concert, exhibition hall etc. that would matter. They need to find a way to enforce this for all food, drinking and club venues as well.

If all you can do is go to the supermarket and pharmac_, parks and private homes, you might as well stay in lockdown. That's the key message - if you don't get vaccinated, your options in terms of living won't look much different than lockdown. The main difference being that the fully vaxxed will be BAU.

 

[dajop]

There are things that may matter - no entrance to any theatre (movie or live), museum, stadium, sporting arena, concert, exhibition hall etc. that would matter. They need to find a way to enforce this for all food, drinking and club venues as well.

This is going to be difficult. How do we deal with the threats to private citizens who need to enforce such rules when an anti-vaxxer is denied entry to a venue snaps and starts physically attacking staff. And it will happen. There are numerous recent reports of threats and violence directed to regional Vic restaurant staff denying entry to those who had travelled from Melbourne to dine out when they weren't supposed to.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

This is going to be difficult. How do we deal with the threats to private citizens who need to enforce such rules when an anti-vaxxer is denied entry to a venue snaps and starts physically attacking staff. And it will happen. There are numerous recent reports of threats and violence directed to regional Vic restaurant staff denying entry to those who had travelled from Melbourne to dine out when they weren't supposed to.

It probably will be more difficult if Australia also allows unvaccinated arrivals based on a pre-flight test (as some jurisdictions so). Imagine high profile international sportspeople who won't get vaccinated because they feel protected due to a prior infection.

 

[JB expat]

This is going to be difficult. How do we deal with the threats to private citizens who need to enforce such rules when an anti-vaxxer is denied entry to a venue snaps and starts physically attacking staff. And it will happen. There are numerous recent reports of threats and violence directed to regional Vic restaurant staff denying entry to those who had travelled from Melbourne to dine out when they weren't supposed to.

I don't disagree - with ticketed events, I imagine they can do something that links to a code that verifies that you've had the vax - something that doesn't involve revealing any personal info like date of birth or medicare number - all they need is the link to the verified source.

For non-ticketed events, such as restaurants, I don't know - and you are right that it shouldn't endanger staff. I, for one, don't want to be dining in a room with unvaxxed given I have young children so it will matter to people like me (and I think I am one of many).

Post automatically merged: Sep 7, 2021

It probably will be more difficult if Australia also allows unvaccinated arrivals based on a pre-flight test (as some jurisdictions so). Imagine high profile international sportspeople who won't get vaccinated because they feel protected due to a prior infection.

The government must apply the same rules to high profile people - it is a farce if they do not.

 

[burmans]

This is going to be difficult. How do we deal with the threats to private citizens who need to enforce such rules when an anti-vaxxer is denied entry to a venue snaps and starts physically attacking staff. And it will happen. There are numerous recent reports of threats and violence directed to regional Vic restaurant staff denying entry to those who had travelled from Melbourne to dine out when they weren't supposed to.

Call the police and get them to enforce the law, it isn't as if we haven't had experienced people behaving badly pre-Covid.

Yes, it may increase short term but if enforced properly shouldn't be an issue. We've already had a taste of this with things like enforcing mask wearing and social distancing, some big objections from some short term but it also dies down pretty quickly.

 

[Danger]

I am pretty sure this guy is independent but this new calculation makes me raise an eyebrow and listen out for the sound of goalposts being moved

now a 90% calculation ...

"This guy" being who? A reference would be very helpful and appropriate.

 

[TiredOldFlyer]

80% would seem to be unachievable if you consider that there is no vaccine for children under 12 who appear to make up nearly 15% of the total population.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

"This guy" being who? A reference would be very helpful and appropriate.

I think its the owner of covidlive website - I think their name is Anthony Macali.

I'm not sure 90% is going anywhere - Doherty is still 80% of 16+ eligible for relevance to international borders.

 

[mviy]

Major things with international borders is at phase C. There's still phase D that doesn't have any targets as yet.

If we get to phase C they may work on a roadmap towards phase D where we get pretty close to a pre-COVID way of life, which would hopefully include international travel levels.

 

[mviy]

I think its the owner of covidlive website - I think their name is Anthony Macali.

I'm not sure 90% is going anywhere - Doherty is still 80% of 16+ eligible for relevance to international borders.

You can see it at 21,244,935 Coronavirus vaccination doses administered in Australia - COVID LIVE

It's now predicting 6 days for NSW to get to 80% first dose and 17 days to get to 90% based on the 7 day average of first doses.

For VIC 11 days for 70%, 24 for 80% and 37 for 90% first doses.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Major things with international borders is at phase C. There's still phase D that doesn't have any targets as yet.

If we get to phase C they may work on a roadmap towards phase D where we get pretty close to a pre-COVID way of life, which would hopefully include international travel levels.

Does that mean you think say home quarantine at phase C (post 80%) subject to State rules, and no quarantine in phase D?

 

[mviy]

Does that mean you think say home quarantine at phase C (post 80%) subject to State rules, and no quarantine in phase D?

You can read about phase D on the PM's website: https://www.pm.gov.au/sites/default/files/media/national-plan-060821_0.pdf

I don't think Phase D will be reached till after the election, but to get back to pre-COVID levels of travel we need to get there as quickly as possible.

I doubt it'd be we move straight from Phase C to all of Phase D, but rather have some targets to progressively ease restrictions as vaccination rates continue to climb beyond 80%.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

"This guy" being who? A reference would be very helpful and appropriate.

as others have said yes the guy who runs covidlive, quite a frequently quoted site here so assumed it would be obvious, my bad