Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Lynda2475]

Looks like Vietnam has ordered enough vaccines now to cover the population and expect to reach herd immunity by the end of the year

Vietnam now reporting a new variant of concern, a cross between UK and Indian variants and seeing a new surge.

 

[ayushamity]

Vietnam now reporting a new variant of concern, a cross between UK and Indian variants and seeing a new surge.

And just like Melbourne, this outbreak has woken up the government and made them hurry up

 

[bcworld]

Neither the MyHealth Record nor Medicare immunisation history will help Australians vaccinated overseas (if those vaccinated in Australia are allowed to quarantine at home). One presumes the Australian government would be competent enough to verify if someone vaccinated domestically would be able to do so (I know. This is a big assumption).

What @Flashback and I were talking about was some mutual recognition for Australians vaccinated overseas in countries with government apps that can retrieve vaccination status.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1398913065144422401

 

[Flashback]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1398913065144422401

Useful for some but not for me unfortunately (and definitely not for Mrs FB who is Irish), I don't think I have a Medicare number anymore.

 

[dajop]

Useful for some but not for me unfortunately (and definitely not for Mrs FB who is Irish), I don't think I have a Medicare number anymore.

Yes, same here we lost our Medicare numbers after being out of the country for 5 years or so.

 

[drron]

Looks like Vietnam has ordered enough vaccines now to cover the population and expect to reach herd immunity by the end of the year. They have a very robust public health system/awareness and they will be flying through the jabs when supply allows. Hopefully, they allow travellers in once they are vaccinated and I can go and re unite with my fiance.

Australia will also probably reach the stage of herd immunity/offering everyone who wants the jab by the end of the year but we know that in Australia, decisions are based on politics and not health....

The problem is that still no one knows what level of immunity will be needed for herd immunity.In the UK 74% of adults have had one Covid jab and 47% 2 jabs.But studies have shown that probably 755 have Covid 19 antibodies.Yet the UK is also experiencing a new surge.

UKHSA data dashboard

Overall summary of the respiratory viruses in circulation within the UK

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

.

And some more on the surge in Vietnam.

Covid: Vietnam detects new UK-Indian variant, health officials say

The mutation, a combination of the Indian and UK variants, is described by officials as "very dangerous".

www.bbc.com

 

[Must...Fly!]

Unsurprising though as travel and socialising returns in the UK. Question is if the cases, hospitalisations and deaths plateau at a low level.

 

[Batterytraveller]

I get this advert targeted at me fairly frequently, for those not up on their hanzi it’s for fairly regular private jet flights from points in China to Sydney and Melbourne. Further evidence that if you have enough money, crossing the hardest of borders is not an issue.

 

[hb13]

Australia is predicting borders will start to open from mid 2022. Students coming to Australia for the 2022 academic year will have no issues returning home to visit families when they want to go, which will be after exams at the end of 2022.

Having been a student myself recently, and in touch with many students from S/E Asia, students want to go home at least a couple of times a year, not after they finish their exams at the end of 2022.

My statement is also on the assumption that these students will likely not have a lot of trouble leaving Australia, however, the hassle and trouble to get back to Australia is where the issue will be.

Secondly, the prediction of borders opening up in mid-2022 is, by everything we have seen so far very optimistic at best. When borders do open up, it is likely that the hassle of entering the country will still be tedious.

The most likely thing that will change throughout all of 2022 is the opening up of a couple more bubbles at best and maybe the ability for fully vaccinated Aussies to quarantine at home.

 

[hb13]

Equally you can't make the statement that a student arriving for the start of the 2022 academic year 'won't be able to visit family for the next few years'. There is some evidence to support mid-2022, there is absolutely zero evidence to support 2025/2026.

What evidence do you have for a 2022 opening? You have defended the government at every turn, without any real logic and borders are still firmly shut and nothing even looks like changing. Politicians musings here and there don't count as "evidence".

It is a fact that students are now looking elsewhere and so they should be.

 

[hb13]

No - it's usually filmed on location in the UK.

But I support initiatives such as this (filming in Australia). It provides countless jobs in various industries and support services. Same with the Aussie Open, we really can't afford to lose it!

So what's your explanation for Natalie Portman's parents to be allowed into the country when thousands of Australians can't see theirs?

Let me guess - they will also generate millions for the Australian economy?

 

[JB expat]

So what's your explanation for Natalie Portman's parents to be allowed into the country when thousands of Australians can't see theirs?

Let me guess - they will also generate millions for the Australian economy?

I think if you can charter a plane and pay for you own quarantine - with security guards etc (I recall reading about this with one of the Minogues) - you can actually come here without much hassle. Basically - you take no seat from an Aussie and you set up a fancy home quarantine that meets government requirements. This is what I’ve gleaned from various articles - but never seen it spelled out.

 

[jakeseven7]

I think if you can charter a plane and pay for you own quarantine - with security guards etc (I recall reading about this with one of the Minogues) - you can actually come here without much hassle. Basically - you take no seat from an Aussie and you set up a fancy home quarantine that meets government requirements. This is what I’ve gleaned from various articles - but never seen it spelled out.

Yup, private jet in for a few hundred depending obviously on how many people, / where from then about 100/150 for private security depending on size of estate.

 

[jakeseven7]

Good news from the AU and NZ PM’s meeting - discussions of expanding the ANZ bubble to include Vanuatu and Fiji. Baby steps....

 

[Virgin Bart]

I personally have given up on contemplating any international travel until about that time - March 2021

2021

Yep. July 2020. Wait and see.

And this has to occur as I have multiple international flights scheduled from this point!

Some predictions from April 2020 for everyone's amusement or despair.

 

[SydneySwan]

The 12th of Never is looking pretty good at the moment.

 

[hb13]

The 12th of Never is looking pretty good at the moment.

I would say the 12th of never is definitely odds on favourite at the moment.

 

[JB expat]

I would say the 12th of never is definitely odds on favourite at the moment.

This is definitely true if they maintain a goal of zero cases. When the vaccination rate reaches 70% here (which hopefully it will by Dec/Jan), then the borders should open for fully vaccinated.

This is rational if one takes the initial “flatten the curve” as the goal. Covid normal is living with COVID and minimising the risks - not eliminating them. What seems to have been lost is the fact that even if/when Aus reaching herd immunity, there will still be incidences of COVID. To live with COVID normal requires herd immunity plus a level of acceptance that COVID will be out there - hopefully with much lower hospitalisation rates, even lower death rates and slower spread all of which should mean that we live with a very flat curve and hospitals can handle the cases and the contact tracers can stay on top of things without shut downs. If all of the foregoing is not accepted, and this idea of COVID ZERO instead of COVID Normal wins out - Australia will end up being a very isolated place to be.

 

[trevella]

When the vaccination rate reaches 70% here (which hopefully it will by Dec/Jan)

Do you mean 70% of the entire population? That seems… aspirational.

 

[JB expat]

Do you mean 70% of the entire population? That seems… aspirational.

All I am doing is quoting what they say is needed for herd immunity - and then I am saying EVEN if they achieve this, that is not enough - still requires acceptance of there being covid in the community without lockdowns.