Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[hb13]

And this is why the vaccination freedom must start to be promoted instead of the blab fest Hunt handed out the other week. Possibly that message might be starting to be heard given the comments today. And if people like us who want to travel can make effective public tweets that there's no point to getting the vaccination if we can't travel, well, maybe it might push the message.

Exactly. The vaccine roll out, in every way, shape and form has been an utter disaster. Europe got slammed for their vaccine rollout, however they're now well on their way. Germany is vaccinating a million people a day, France about 400k a day, Italy the same.

I would expect that all of Europe/UK/US/Canada/Middle East will be pretty much done by September. Australia won't be even close - and the thing is, there is absolutely no excuse. Australia should be top of the pack.

 

[Batterytraveller]

I'm in the same boat as many, family in the UK, aging parents and deep frustration over the vaccine rollout. I got pilloried here a few months ago for suggesting it was a colossal shambles, and I can only see it has got worse not better. It's even more frustrating to see the feds knock back every suggestion of an improvement or expansion to hotel quarantine. If we're stuck with this indefinitely then do something to expand capacity (nationalise big 4 holiday camps, GPS ankle bracelets for home quarantine, park some cruise ships in port Phillip for quarantine (ok maybe not that one))

My wife and I can get legitimately vaxxed in either the UK or the US and we're considering a jailbreak, either to buy our way back in on an expensive flight, after a few months spent with family, of course, or to work remotely until the hysteria subsides.

I'm also wondering when the first court case brought by a vaxxed Aussie trying to get back in, surely the border regulations need to be proportionate to be legal.

 

[mviy]

If existing legal challenges to the restrictions fail I'm sure some will look to see what other challenges can be brought.

If the use of the Biosecurity Act to impose a blanket ban is ruled to be illegal, Labor and the cross bench may be able to extract some concessions from the government to pass new legislation e.g. more parliamentary oversight, building new quarantine facilities like Howard Springs etc.

 

[DC3]

.... I got pilloried here a few months ago for suggesting it was a colossal shambles, and I can only see it has got worse not better ...

The Government’s lights are on but no-one’s home.

 

[Pushka]

Exactly. The vaccine roll out, in every way, shape and form has been an utter disaster. Europe got slammed for their vaccine rollout, however they're now well on their way. Germany is vaccinating a million people a day, France about 400k a day, Italy the same.

I would expect that all of Europe/UK/US/Canada/Middle East will be pretty much done by September. Australia won't be even close - and the thing is, there is absolutely no excuse. Australia should be top of the pack.

We spoke to our son and future DIL in the UK and her parents by zoom last night. First time we'd met the parents. If you call a zoom a meet. They are looking at being free from mid May and able to make sensible decisions on where they travel to next. Parents have already been fully vaccinated. The son and DIL expect to start theirs any day now (30's). Mind you they have been in lockdown since October.

Interesting.
Australia’s international borders will be reopened sooner than expected, but there’s a huge wildcard driving uncertainty about when that will happen.

New deadline for opening Aussie borders

Australia’s international borders will be reopened in 2022 under a “cautious approach” according to the Tuesday’s budget but there’s a huge wildcard driving uncertainty about when and how quickly that will happen.

www.news.com.au

 

[DC3]

... Australia’s international borders will be reopened sooner than expected, but there’s a huge wildcard driving uncertainty about when that will happen ...

I believe that I can put a name to that huge wildcard.

 

[N860CR]

The issue with our vaccination program is not only what a s**tshow it’s been, but also how it’s fast becoming a waste of time, money and people’s energy.

We are currently vaccinating our population at a painfully slow rate against a virus that doesn’t exist in this country with a vaccine that from most reports will need to be boosted sometime in the future. We might as well setup a culling program for purple elephants.

Realistically, under the current arrangement, every person who has been vaccinated thus far has done it for the fun of the exercise as the vaccine has provided them absolutely zero benefit.

The current approach to allow the vaccine to everyone over 50 is good. But the right thing to do now is to set a date and say “by xx_ everyone over 50 has had the chance to be vaccinated, so at that point we need to reintroduce the virus”.

Vaccines alone won’t stop this. There needs to be an amount of natural spread. And for all the scare mongering, “long COVID”, “30 year old who OD’d died of COVID” etc etc, if you’re under 50, you’ll be fine.

 

[mviy]

I think what drron(?) or someone said on AFF recently was that with the Spanish Flu it was ultimately a much more highly contagious variant that provided some degree of immunity, but at the same time less deadly that ended that pandemic.

Ultimately unless such a variant of COVID emerges we'll be living with the virus for a long time to come.

 

[serfty]

The current rate of vaccinations will take till about 2023 to have all adults vaccinated.

The current rate is ~50K vaccinations per day and has been that since Easter (7 weeks).

At that rate, it would take until May 2022 for everyone over 14yo to have their first injection. One month later those getting Pfizer would be complete, three months for AZ.

 

[straitman]

Every single friend, family member and colleague in Australia (I work in London for an Aussie company) has told me the same thing. A handful of them were over 50, who are now eligible. And all of these people want to travel - but they say there is no point, no incentive - why bother?

Because when the gates open it will take a while to get the jab and be ready to travel. With AZ being 3 months between jabs that’s quite a lag.

 

[drron]

The 2 major problems with our vaccine rollout is first with Pfizer the number of doses is still only 60% of the contracted rate of 1 million doses a month from February.Weekly deliveries are ~ 140000.
Second we do manufacture the AZ vaccine but the problem with blood clots has really reduced the numbers of those willing to have the AZ vaccine.Plus the ingrained belief by many that the Pfizer vaccine is more effective than the AZ vaccine based on the Phase 3 trial results but in the real world the UK figures show no significant difference between the AZ and Pfizer vaccines.

And the current rate of vaccinations won't stay the same for 2-3 years.There will be a massive ramp up of Pfizer and Moderna vaccine production later this year.The EU has just authorised production in plants in Belgium and Spain.

Plus there is the 51 million doses of the Novavax vaccine hopefully to start in the third quarter this year.

 

[Seat0B]

Good point you raise. I'm 35, without international travel and quarantine free arrival, combined with an elimination strategy that basically leaves us with no ill effects to the population, there is little external motivation to be vaccinated.

Granted I will sign up to be vaccinated when it's available, but that's just me. Plenty of people I know are much more relaxed without an external reason.

I'm 60 and feel exactly the same way.

Post automatically merged: May 10, 2021

Every single friend, family member and colleague in Australia (I work in London for an Aussie company) has told me the same thing. A handful of them were over 50, who are now eligible. And all of these people want to travel - but they say there is no point, no incentive - why bother?

Exactly

 

[SydneySwan]

I can get vaccinated in the UK or here. Now that 2a group can get vaccinated here I plan to do so on May 24, wait the 3 months for my second shot of AZ and then visit relatives in the UK in September or October. If I don't get a travel exemption I will just use the NZ bubble solution (hopefully it is still around then). Government policies / pronouncements are blowing in the wind. They vary from day to day and from minister to minister. What is abundantly clear though is that there is no coherent plan for overseas travel except 'sometime in 2022'. This time last year it was expected to be 'sometime in 2021'. Next year it could well be 'sometime in 2023'.

Our government is failing us so without any proper roadmap we just have to make our own decisions / plans and carry them out as best we can. If I get arrested for breaching the Biosecurity Act by leaving through NZ then the PM can expect to receive a subpoena to be a witness in my defence. In any case I am over 60 so entering what a 76 year old Greenie lady friend calls my 'peak arrestability' years. She goes to various protests and apparently the Police avoid as much as possible arresting her as they know the magistrate will more than likely dismiss her case or even tell the Police off for wasting time arresting her.

 

[Pushka]

The message from Hunt this time is much better:
Health Minister Greg Hunt says a plan for vaccinated Australians to be able to travel overseas should be an incentive for people to get their COVID shot, as the government develops a roadmap for opening up the nation’s international borders.

Over the weekend, Mr Hunt outlined a three-step plan for how border restrictions would gradually be removed, which included the ability for vaccinated Australians to head overseas sooner with fewer restrictions. Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet secretary Philip Gaetjens has been working with his state counterparts on a plan for quarantine arrangements and reopening Australia once the most vulnerable were vaccinated.

On Monday, Mr Hunt said the government would be guided by medical advice in determining how it would allow vaccinated Australians to have an “easier passage out and easier passage in”.

“It should certainly be an incentive to get the vaccination,” he said.

“We will provide next steps as we have the medical evidence.”

 

[dajop]

I don't even see SQ continuing to fly their A380s. They have started refurbishing one now, but their border policy is just about as harsh as Australia if not worse, so those A380s have no hope.

Although not relevant anyway to A380 (SQ's A380 traffic relies more on connecting traffic rather than traffic that actually crosses the border), I'm not sure I'd categorise their border policy as worse, or even as harsh as Australia.

1) Anyone can leave without obtaining an exemption.
2) Citizens and permanent residents can return to Singapore without restriction (although face hotel quarantine and are liable for any medical costs if they test positive for COVID within first two weeks of return), although those on work passes face restrictions that go up and down depending on the status of the outbreak (at the moment most can't come back if they are overseas, due to recent restrictions).
3) There is no cap on quarantine for arrivals, Singapore is taking about as many (or even slightly more) in total as Australia (with 1/5th the population, so 5x per capita).
4) They are pragmatic regarding low risk countries (no quarantine for arrival required travelling from Australia, for one),
5) On the downside they have tightened up (last week) on the non-low risk countries, now requiring a ghastly 21 day quarantine.

Put it this way ... if I were a Singaporean Citizen who was a permanent resident of Australia I could not return to Singapore to visit relatives. But as an Australian citizen who is a permanent resident of Singapore I can go to Australia to see my mother, brothers, sisters, nieces and nephews. Singaporean Citizens abroad can book a flight and return to Singapore ... no caps. Australian citizens abroad face the caps and low availability. If Seat0B was a Singaporean or PR living in Singapore, no problems to depart and visit their son in Dubai (provided they can get entry to UAE and willing to do quarantine on return). Not an option for someone living in Australia.

Pick the one party benevolent dictatorship and pick the liberal democracy.

 

[Bigskytraveller]

Second we do manufacture the AZ vaccine but the problem with blood clots has really reduced the numbers of those willing to have the AZ vaccine.Plus the ingrained belief by many that the Pfizer vaccine is more effective than the AZ vaccine based on the Phase 3 trial results but in the real world the UK figures show no significant difference between the AZ and Pfizer vaccines.

I agree entirely with your observations here.

As you say the reporting and broad interpretation of the AZ v Pfizer issue has been handled badly by the media and government. Real world experience here in the UK shows no efficacy difference in any age group including the very oldest and in some cases is skewing slightly in AZ’s favour.

1. The initial protocol for the phase 3 trials was very poor by **Pfizer** as they only tested symptomatic cases not all participants in the studies as AZ did. This alone accounted for the efficacy rate difference that grabbed the headlines, the most minimal scratching by someone that calls themselves a journalist would have sorted that out.
2. AZ seems to have had a hard time with certain organisations / people ie Fauci and his unprecedented attack on submitting an early report flagged by AZ as having early non-final data which is standard practice and was not in any way outside normal
3. The clotting issue again has not been fully worked through and there are studies that show similar and sometimes greater risks with mRNA vaccines in different population groups (the issue here and this is the nuance that our media and government don’t get will be matching the vaccine to the demographic with the lowest side effects for that demographic) this could be Pfizer for younger women, AZ for younger men.

We are now in the silly position of having people think there’s a “good” vaccine and a bad one and the governments behaviour in running away and buying Pfizer instead of explaining what was going on is part of the problem. I will be very interested what happens with younger men if there is indeed a clotting risk with mRNA that comes out - at a similar rate to say AZ with women.

 

[hb13]

Although not relevant anyway to A380 (SQ's A380 traffic relies more on connecting traffic rather than traffic that actually crosses the border), I'm not sure I'd categorise their border policy as worse, or even as harsh as Australia.

1) Anyone can leave without obtaining an exemption.
2) Citizens and permanent residents can return to Singapore without restriction (although face hotel quarantine and are liable for any medical costs if they test positive for COVID within first two weeks of return), although those on work passes face restrictions that go up and down depending on the status of the outbreak (at the moment most can't come back if they are overseas, due to recent restrictions).
3) There is no cap on quarantine for arrivals, Singapore is taking about as many (or even slightly more) in total as Australia (with 1/5th the population, so 5x per capita).
4) They are pragmatic regarding low risk countries (no quarantine for arrival required travelling from Australia, for one),
5) On the downside they have tightened up (last week) on the non-low risk countries, now requiring a ghastly 21 day quarantine.

Put it this way ... if I were a Singaporean Citizen who was a permanent resident of Australia I could not return to Singapore to visit relatives. But as an Australian citizen who is a permanent resident of Singapore I can go to Australia to see my mother, brothers, sisters, nieces and nephews. Singaporean Citizens abroad can book a flight and return to Singapore ... no caps. Australian citizens abroad face the caps and low availability. If Seat0B was a Singaporean or PR living in Singapore, no problems to depart and visit their son in Dubai (provided they can get entry to UAE and willing to do quarantine on return). Not an option for someone living in Australia.

Pick the one party benevolent dictatorship and pick the liberal democracy.

Yes you're right, I was only referring to people entering the country rather than leaving. I guess SQ is constrained by total passenger movements worldwide obviously. In your opinion, will there be enough traffic anytime in the next 12 months to support SQ bringing their A380s back?

 

[mviy]

London has limited slots though those limits may not be a big issue for a while. There’s probably plenty of airlines that would be happy to sublease their slots on a short term basis.

Flights to London would probably be one of the first to have the A380 again if it does come back.

 

[dajop]

Yes you're right, I was only referring to people entering the country rather than leaving. I guess SQ is constrained by total passenger movements worldwide obviously. In your opinion, will there be enough traffic anytime in the next 12 months to support SQ bringing their A380s back?

It's hard to see within the next 12 months. The routes plied by the A380 were SYD, ZRH, LHR, FRA/JFK, BOM, DEL, HKG, PVG and PEK, with seasonal AKL service.. Heavily supported by not only local traffic, but also Australia & Indonesia (and other SE Asia) traffic feeding to most of the A380 network & vv. I can't see India and Indonesia routes being allowed to recover in a hurry, and we all know (or don't) what the situation is for Australia. China are keeping a tight control on movements into the country too. SIN-HKG if the bubble gets off the ground could probably support a single A380, and SIN-LHR could be the other candidate if more UK travellers allowed into SE Asia. But 12 months would seem optimistic.

 

[ayushamity]

‘Politics rules’: Australia’s international travel ban not based on science, health experts say

Yes politics rule...