Is the 747 on its last legs?

[Ansett]

Boeing cuts 747 jumbo production again

With the fall in demand for the 747 are we seeing the final days for the great lady of the skies with airlines prefering smaller more economocal birds or high capacity aircraft such as the A380

Will the strong demand for 787/A350 aircraft kill off the old girl?

What are your thoughts

 

[Flying Fox]

I hope not as I like the look of the current B747-8i.

However, I feel that the 777-8 or whatever it's going to be called might do this.

There will be limited demand for 4 engined planes due to ETOPS limitations but I don't think that many 747s will be built in the future.

 

[Simo]

Why would the Freighter plane be more expensive than a passenger plane.

Thou both are out of my price range.

 

[samh004]

Another AFF thread this morning discussed Transaero and their massive seating layout for the A380. At the end of the article it noted that they have 4 A380's ordered and 4 747-8's, with the reason being that they can alternate the A380 on high season and 747 on low season. I'm not sure why other airlines aren't considering this, other than perhaps increased maintenance not making sense. It seems like it'd be a good fit for Qantas, considering that's pretty much what they use now.

 

[Awesom Andy]

I'm not sure why other airlines aren't considering this, other than perhaps increased maintenance not making sense.

It's probably cost prohibitive to park 4 planes of this size for 6 months every year. Besides, for routes that can be rotated in this way, you'll find that the 777 is used if the routes do not require a 4-engine aircraft due to ETOPS requirements.

 

[samh004]

It's probably cost prohibitive to park 4 planes of this size for 6 months every year. Besides, for routes that can be rotated in this way, you'll find that the 777 is used if the routes do not require a 4-engine aircraft due to ETOPS requirements.

I'd have thought less so parking and more so that different routes will have different high and low seasons, so everything is utilised.

But I do see the benefit of 2-engines over 4 re: fuel.

 

[UP4014]

I think it will be around for a while. Insiders in QF tell me the 380 has many small issues which cause them to be out of service while the 747 soldiers on.

The 747 is proven and the huge development start up costs are long gone making it cheaper than a 380 which airbus is still in the development cost recovery mode.

The 767 production line is still going, there is a market for proven products, even if smaller.

 

[Flying Fox]

Another AFF thread this morning discussed Transaero and their massive seating layout for the A380. At the end of the article it noted that they have 4 A380's ordered and 4 747-8's, with the reason being that they can alternate the A380 on high season and 747 on low season. I'm not sure why other airlines aren't considering this, other than perhaps increased maintenance not making sense. It seems like it'd be a good fit for Qantas, considering that's pretty much what they use now.

As much as it pains me, I don't see QF ordering 747-8i's.

I see QF's future as being made up of A380s, B787s (-9s & -10s) and maybe B777-8s/-9s or A350s with the existing B747s being phased out eventually.

 

[ftm]

They need something to replace the 747s on Joburg and Santiago. Neither route is efficient on a two engine aircraft, and the markets are too small for the A380.

I also think they will be around for a while yet. Remember how long it took to phase out the 747-300?!

 

[Isochronous]

They need something to replace the 747s on Joburg and Santiago. Neither route is efficient on a two engine aircraft, and the markets are too small for the A380.

I also think they will be around for a while yet. Remember how long it took to phase out the 747-300?!

A fleet of 4x 748s to service those routes might be in order - and Antarctica/Captain's Tour charters.

 

[straitman]

But I do see the benefit of 2-engines over 4 re: fuel.

Fuel by itself is only a small consideration.

 

[Awesom Andy]

A fleet of 4x 748s to service those routes might be in order - and Antarctica/Captain's Tour charters.

If the A350 can indeed be certified for ETOPs 350 minutes, then it would have no issue (in theory) replacing the 747s on such routes. Although for the time being, the 747 will soldier on. I don't see them being able to fill an A380 on these routes for quite some time yet. For current-day aircrafts, I guess the A346 would work reasonably well here, if one must choose an aircraft for these routes.

 

[Isochronous]

If the A350 can indeed be certified for ETOPs 350 minutes, then it would have no issue (in theory) replacing the 747s on such routes. Although for the time being, the 747 will soldier on. I don't see them being able to fill an A380 on these routes for quite some time yet. For current-day aircrafts, I guess the A346 would work reasonably well here, if one must choose an aircraft for these routes.

But who is taking up new use of A340s though? SQ is canning them which is why SIN-EWR is being cancelled and I'm pretty sure AY are phasing them out too, as are CX.

 

[Awesom Andy]

But who is taking up new use of A340s though? SQ is canning them which is why SIN-EWR is being cancelled and I'm pretty sure AY are phasing them out too, as are CX.

The A340 is out of production, probably for good reasons. It simply can't compete against the 77W in 99% of the missions. And then, hardly anyone would attempt something like SYD-JNB/SCL. CX got rid of them a long time ago too.

 

[mardy]

According to Wikipedia, the A380 has had zero orders this year (-3). So perhaps all 4 engined jets are on their last legs!

 

[bryanjones]

Fuel by itself is only a small consideration.

Said no Airline accountant ever Be curious here. With all the hedging, "taxes", etc - what the overall strategy is

 

[samh004]

My basic understanding of route limitations between 4 and 2-engined planes is redundancy if something happens to one of the engines, is that correct? If so, why hasn't more work been put towards 3-engines planes like the 727 or MD-11?

I note AVRO had a great design in the 1950's and Airbus filed a patent for a new design in 2008, but no other work has surfaced.

 

[JohnK]

I think they will be around a lot longer than most people think.

Great aircraft and great flying experience. I still prefer to be in a 747 over any other aircraft.

 

[Flying Fox]

Fuel by itself is only a small consideration.

I respectfully disagree as per this article (even if its from 2012)

Their calculations show that the price of fuel as a percentage of Qantas's total costs has risen from 14 per cent in 2004 to an expected 28 per cent this financial year.

Rising jet fuel prices weigh heavily on Qantas, Virgin

Said no Airline accountant ever

I agree.

The A340 is out of production, probably for good reasons. It simply can't compete against the 77W in 99% of the missions. And then, hardly anyone would attempt something like SYD-JNB/SCL. CX got rid of them a long time ago too.

As measured by sales, it simply didn't sell very well at all.
​

 

[Awesom Andy]

As measured by sales, it simply didn't sell very well at all.

The 77W has proven to be a little bit more efficient than the A346, hence most of the sales going to Boeing. And with extended ETOPS, the need for the A342/3 simply vaporised. And then, there's the A345, which is basically an ultra-long-range flying oil tanker with a few pax seats added as an after thought. I don't think many people miss them at all.

Back on topic, I think anyone who would want to have a fleet of planes in the super-jumbo class has already ordered for themselves. And by the time when the 748 went into production, most have already ordered or are already flying the A380. I think there will always be a future for the 4-engine planes, but there just won't be that many of them around, given extended ETOPS and that 2-engine planes can carry a pretty good payload these days.