Capacity increase starting to hurt Qantas domestically

[markis10]

Qantas have released the August traffic figures showing the capacity increase is starting to hurt, with RSFs down 2.7% for QF and 5% for JQ, 3K and QF int are the only two to record a RSF positive increase.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120928/pdf/4291dksm0vp540.pdf

 

[moa999]

RSF you mean.. been that way all year.
Interestingly JQ Asia is well over 80% and QF Int also looks strong.

Also interesting that Jetstar Japan now at 5 aircraft (having started with 3 in June) and 12 aircraft by end of year (quite large given Jetstar NZ is only getting its 9th in November)

 

[markis10]

RSF you mean.. been that way all year.
Interestingly JQ Asia is well over 80% and QF Int also looks strong.

I do mean RSF, and no, they have not been that way all year as far as the trend goes, I would suggest anything over + or - 1% is more than an anomaly, with JQ feeling significant pain with close to a 10% turnaround:

[TABLE="width: 384"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 64"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]Aug[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]July[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]May[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]Apr[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]Mar[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]QF D[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-2.7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-3.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]JQ D[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-5.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-3.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]QF i[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-2.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]JQ i[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[samh004]

Also interesting that Jetstar Japan now at 5 aircraft (having started with 3 in June) and 12 aircraft by end of year (quite large given Jetstar NZ is only getting its 9th in November)

It is a much larger population though. I guess to expand in NZ JQ would need to go more regional and take on Air NZ in that space, but probably easier not to.




 

[JohnK]

Qantas international looks strong and last month they were a joke and in major trouble.

Are we comparing apples and oranges?

 

[markis10]

Qantas international looks strong and last month they were a joke and in major trouble.

Are we comparing apples and oranges?

They are stronger because of the removal of loss making routes, comparison being year for year.

 

[eastwest101]

The lower Revenue Seat Factors for QFlink and JQ domestic are interesting. I assume that Tiger are having an effect on JQd margins but QFlink had been going really well until these monthly figures came out.... that is a weird one for me.

 

[markis10]

The lower Revenue Seat Factors for QFlink and JQ domestic are interesting. I assume that Tiger are having an effect on JQd margins but QFlink had been going really well until these monthly figures came out.... that is a weird one for me.

Maybe QFlink are starting to feel the ATR pressures.

 

[eastwest101]

Maybe QFlink are starting to feel the ATR pressures.

Possibly so, but with the mining boom in QLD and WA really only slowing down in the last few months I was not surprised to see the regional QFlink numbers come down a bit. The other weird thing is that Rex actually made a handy profit recently with older and less efficient aircraft in regional markets of NSW/VIC/SA/TAS and QLD.

So what you are saying or maybe suggesting is that any market where QFlink has been exposed to VA ATR42 competition then that is hurting QF link?

 

[markis10]

Possibly so, but with the mining boom in QLD and WA really only slowing down in the last few months I was not surprised to see the regional QFlink numbers come down a bit. The other weird thing is that Rex actually made a handy profit recently with older and less efficient aircraft in regional markets of NSW/VIC/SA/TAS and QLD.

So what you are saying or maybe suggesting is that any market where QFlink has been exposed to VA ATR42 competition then that is hurting QF link?

Rex are doing OK because they operate on a lot of subsidised routes with equipment that's old, therefore OPEX is down, the big issue is how they go when they need to replace those aircraft, what will they buy given there is no direct replacement in that segment being made.

I believe QFlink would be hurting from the ATR72 ops simply because in many places customers now have a choice, and it's a much cheaper to fly as a result. DJs RLF are down by a similar percentage to JQ, however they had a 10% ASK increase, which accounts for some of that drop.

 

[samh004]

QFLink has had a lot of very good sales this year, which I assume would be from increased competition, but not sure they needed so many for so little, so that's probably a reason...

 

[markis10]

THE capacity war between the big airlines has sparked claims Qantas Group's market share has fallen below 60 per cent on the nation's top 10 domestic routes.


A review of capacity by analysts at RBS puts Qantas's share at 58 per cent, down from 63 per cent and well below the group's 65 per cent "line in the sand".

Cookies must be enabled. | The Australian

 

[N860CR]

So the next claim will be that QF Domestic is losing money and more routes will be cut (and given to JQ) in order to "save" them and make the company "stronger"