Are the days of Points collecting over?

[SOPOOR]

its 2025, and I over the past 10 years have collected a lot of points,

Unless you have a business or have a unique situation where you get frequent flyer miles/points for free or your work pays for it, i am now finding it not worth chasing any more

eg Amex points went from 2-3 points per $1 spend to 1.5-2, then conversion rates to various programs rates dropped by 25-33%

Credit card churning periods have now increased from 12 to 18-24 months periods

Credit card annual fees have gone up

Most merchants are now charging credit card surcharge fees which were not that common pre covid


Many years ago i used to buy heaps of supermarket gift cards, solely for the points,
sometimes payall/sniip etc was worth it for me
I used to buy local shopping centre gift cards because the fee was say $7 per $1000
I used to pay every bill using cards

Now, I dont do most of them and have virtually stopped,

I cant see the market returning to its old glory, but is it just a "dead" market now?

 

[daft009]

Yeah I mostly agree.
just have to get creative but that comes down to how much time you have/want to devote to the "game".

Personally I have business expenses so can keep going, for the time being

 

[elanshin]

So i like to think of this as a recalibration period for thr whole industry. The concept of airline points and miles aren't over but it's going through a whole bunch of changes. There were a few fundamentally broken things that existed with the award systems that were masked until it got as big as it is nowdays and those need some level of fundamental change. (Earnings potential vs spending potential).

This also coincides right now with record profits and demand for air travel so the airlines can pretty much do whatever they want and looking around its industry wide (there's very few airlines that haven't hit their rewards program hard in the last few years). So you cant even vote with your wallet per se as the competitors have pulled similar moves.

Eventually the pendulum will swing the other way and the structure will mature even further with more sophisticated ways to earn and spend, but as a whole yes we're probably not in a great place for earning going forward for a while.

 

[luxury-lizard]

I agree with @daft009 - I've been collecting and spending points since joining some of the US and Canadian airlines (anyone remember Canadian Airlines) when you needed an American (or Canadian address) - then heyday of US Air (RIP) then AA then LifeMiles then Aeroplan - the party's over from my point of view - "happy" to pay for J tickets now.

I can't see the pendulum ever swinging back in favour of the travelling public.

 

[lovestotravel]

Yes - Only going to get worse with the crackdown on merchant fees by the RBA etc

 

[lilkid28]

its 2025, and I over the past 10 years have collected a lot of points,

Unless you have a business or have a unique situation where you get frequent flyer miles/points for free or your work pays for it, i am now finding it not worth chasing any more

eg Amex points went from 2-3 points per $1 spend to 1.5-2, then conversion rates to various rates dropped by 25-33%

Credit card churning periods have now increased from 12 to 18-24 months periods

Credit card annual fees have gone up

Most merchants are now charging credit card surcharge fees which were not that common pre covid


Many years ago i used to buy heaps of supermarket gift cards, solely for the points,
sometimes payall/sniip etc was worth it for me
I used to buy local shopping centre gift cards because the fee was say $7 per $1000
I used to pay every bill using cards

Now, I dont do most of them and have virtually stopped,

I cant see the market returning to its old glory, but is it just a "dead" market now?

I find that it's probably worth to hold 1 Amex and 1 Visa/MC between a couple, use them when it makes sense, no credit card fees (large retailers), purchase restaurant gift cards when they go on sale for dining out, vs using them directly at restaurants with 1.5-2% surcharge (which doesn't make sense at current points value).

Otherwise, there are regular business class deals, e.g $4.5-5k business return to Europe, $3k business return to Japan is a good deal, earning FF points, and no mucking around with credit card spend for points.

 

[CaptJCool]

And then there’s monthly spending caps like Citibank have introduced where points will only be given for the first $5,000.
And westpac where the earn rate is reduced after the first $x,000

 

[markis10]

The situation is always changing and has done so for at least 20 years. Sure the days of getting J on SQ for $800 ex Asia to Aus are gone. So are the VA $80 J flights BNE Syd flights velocity awards, and don’t get me started on the woolies pet food runs donated to your local RSPCA for a monster QFF point haul. JASA’s, dreamy days.

Since I joined there has been regular posts claiming the sky is falling, but as one door closes another opens. With todays modern media environment seeking to make $$$ of so called hacks, the good deals are harder to find, but they are out there and most of the so called influencers/bloggers lack the smarts to do the work to find them. Put the effort in and you will get the rewards.

 

[aikman]

It's just a hobby now that you do because you enjoy doing it.

 

[levelnine]

Great thread topic.

There's so many ways one can think about what's happened in the last decade.

Points/miles are basically an arbitrage play — purchase something for cheap (points) and flip it for something more expensive (airline tickets).

The arbitrage play has become flooded with new entrants and more savvy players due to:
- social media showing what's possible with points (especially viral Instagram/TikTok/Youtube reels showing aspirational redemptions)
- forums laying out how to churn credit cards and acquire points in other ways (in Australia, OZB/AFF/Reddit/FB/etc)
- award search tools making it easier to find redemptions
- podcasts/webinars/websites and other informational resources further explaining the basics to newbies

Any arbitrage play becomes less lucrative as more people find out about it.

If you don't adapt by moving into either a new arbitrage play or a form of the arbitrage that hasn't been flooded with entrants, you lose as your current play diminishes in value.

 

[drron]

Not over for me but a totally different experience. Most of my points are now being bought from the airline or hotel programs. It generally means a. 10 to 30% discount on sale J fares or hotel rooms. Not what it was but still has value.

 

[SCM]

It's getting worse and worse, even when I got into it around 2019 or something, CCs were undergoing massive reduction in points earned for spending, so it's always getting worse.

Ultimately, the frequent flyer programmes of airlines are the biggest profit centres, so it's up to them to figure out how to add value to our lives and get us to spend money with them and their partners. As credit cards become worse deals, they will have to innovate and think of other ways to make money.

Interests converge when it comes to spending and value for money, those that do it best will succeed and get more customers. I think the important thing is to be flexible and have zero actual loyalty to any airline, programme, product, etc - and do whatever makes the most sense given the current state of the market.

 

[elanshin]

Since I joined there has been regular posts claiming the sky is falling, but as one door closes another opens. With todays modern media environment seeking to make $$$ of so called hacks, the good deals are harder to find, but they are out there and most of the so called influencers/bloggers lack the smarts to do the work to find them. Put the effort in and you will get the rewards.

Or smart enough to keep those to themselves, or charge actual money for that sort of real "deals".

Like an example would be using Amex > Hawaiian > Alaskan - reasonable amount of people know /figured it out but I'd say the main horde of people didn't. Alaskan have some great pricing on OW but being harder to get the miles normally lot of people probably didn't even consider them so with the Hawaiian opportunity never even looked at it. To someone that's been in the FF for a while it seemed an obvious play was available for a while here.

 

[Seat0B]

And westpac where the earn rate is reduced after the first $x,000

My Westpac Altitude Black card sent new terms and conditions the other day - fee up from $150 to $370, for a reduced points earn. We are following the strategy proposed by @lilkid28 - we use card when it suits, when there is low or no surcharge, and no longer go out of our way to hunt points opportunities. Oh, and they have put up the interest rate they charge as well (although we always pay off in full, so not affected). Not happy Jan, as they say in the classics.

 

[SOPOOR]

And then there’s monthly spending caps like Citibank have introduced where points will only be given for the first $5,000.
And westpac where the earn rate is reduced after the first $x,000

yes, ive noticed that for the past 12 months or so as well,

ok rate for the first $2000 or so, and then after half rate,

or even worse, maximum say 10,000 points per statement

Old man yelling at clouds statement: But that is absolutely terrible, Imagine if we said were not paying the bank fees above a certain amount

 

[Scarlett]

Points earning from spend becoming much more marginal as most merchants seem to completely ignore government ‘cost of doing business’ guidance for credit card fees. For a while 0.5-1.0% was being charged, but now most small/medium businesses are 1.5-2.0% card transaction fee.

I find I’m pulling out cash much more often this year than maybe the past 10 years.

 

[Aeryn]

All capping the points earn per statement or year does is encourage customers to have a second or third card with another bank or credit provider so that they don't suffer reduced earn. Bottom line is the bank/card provider earns less transaction fees and the customer has to do a bit more homework to track what they are putting on each card.

I've just spent about 10 hours over 3 days trying to find flights for a OWA before the devaluation kicks in; I managed it but no joy trying to get Qantas to release an award seat; and notice zero business class classic awards for the next 12 months on any day on QF1, QF33 or QF9 although quite a lot of availability to DFW.

Earning points is still relatively easy, redeeming them on flights you want is more difficult than previously, requiring far more creative routing which can eat up a stop-over.

 

[Coathanger]

The glory days of a strong AUD and US Airways Dividend Miles are sadly gone.

On the earn side, credit cards have certainly become less lucrative in terms of base earn. Sign up bonuses are still generally okay and sometimes great with Amex referral offers, but offset by the longer wait time for re-eligibility.

On the burn side, premium award seats feel harder to get due to the far greater number of people looking and the gradual erosion of the universal availability of seats across an alliance system.

The bright spot is really lower paid premium fares from certain gateway cities in Asia.

 

[kpc]

The bloggers have made it easy for everyone to play the game...airlines, credit card providers are now smarter or more sneaky...imagine being able to print as much money as you want, then limit what you can buy with that money or even increase the cost of the item at your whim without any government regulations?! Welcome to Qf points...

I have been playing this game earnestly for 20+ years, and the cherries are not so easy to find now. Unless something drastically changes, the FF game (award flights esp. in premium cabins) will be mostly over within 5-10 years imo.

Look at how Va are offering the opportunity to buy onboard drinks and meals with points...not interested Va
..I save pts to fly in the premium cabins

 

[sudoer]

Look at how Va are offering the opportunity to buy onboard drinks and meals with points...not interested Va
..I save pts to fly in the premium cabins

The people using points on toasters are subsidising our J/F rewards. I also won't use VA Pay with Points, but would rather see stuff like this launched than face another devaluation.