Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Pom-DownUnder]

Perth for AFL Grand Final, will this be the end of CovidZero in WA? lol

AFL 2021 grand final to be played in Perth after MCG ruled out due to Covid-19

The 2021 grand final will be played in Perth for the first time in AFL history after the game’s spiritual home, the MCG, was ruled out of hosting the showpiece game due to Covid

www.theguardian.com

 

[SydneySwan]

Perth for AFL Grand Final, will this be the end of CovidZero in WA? lol

AFL 2021 grand final to be played in Perth after MCG ruled out due to Covid-19

The 2021 grand final will be played in Perth for the first time in AFL history after the game’s spiritual home, the MCG, was ruled out of hosting the showpiece game due to Covid

www.theguardian.com

Probably but there is a solution ..... just make the GF between the underperforming Dockers and Eagles neither of whom qualified for finals. That way no-one has to fly in and event is bound to be sold out.

 

[jrfsp]

Perth for AFL Grand Final, will this be the end of CovidZero in WA? lol

AFL 2021 grand final to be played in Perth after MCG ruled out due to Covid-19

The 2021 grand final will be played in Perth for the first time in AFL history after the game’s spiritual home, the MCG, was ruled out of hosting the showpiece game due to Covid

www.theguardian.com

All they care about is ticket sales, at the moment WA can have the highest capacity - id be surprised if it wasnt back at the G next year.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Just on the UK, and as others noted our two situations cannot be directly compared as our and experiences have been different, and are currently different. Plus it is now Delta at play and not Alpha, and so it is what has happened recently that is most relevant.

However some seem to be of the belief that our cases (infections) will go down post 80% and on opening up. However, I am not sure why? Cases/infections in Australia have been very low due out in the main strict measures combined with out bubble. So we are currently well below what will probably become the norm.

But once people are freely allowed to mix with active Covid infections in the community it should mean that cases/infections will go up and not down.

Vaccines minimise the severe adverse events of Covid. They do not stop transmission. They minimise the effects of what Covid does once it enters your body, but Covid will keep causing upper respiratory problems where the vaccine will not readily assist, and so Covid will still replicate and infect others. Plus the unvaccinated will also of course spread the virus.

If we just ignore the differences between Australia and the UK for the moment, crudely put at present in the UK about 30 thousand cases per day (it seems to be on the rise), and over one hundred deaths per day.

Adjusting for population that is in Australia about 13 thousand per day, and say 50 deaths per day. Even for just NSW that would be 4000 per day, and 16 deaths per day. The unknown is whether this drops off after some time, or whether it becomes like the flu where mutations keep causing new Cases each year. So it could be like a really, really bad flu season for one year only, or it may keep rolling along year after year. One extra disadvantage though is that it would seem that the health resources required to treat Covid patients may be substantially more than flu patients. If so that is going to requite an ongoing beefed up health system.

Now yes this will be up and down, but the vast majority of the Australian population has not yet been exposed to Covid. Once we start to freely mix, including worldwide, then eventually everyone will get exposed to Covid. How quick that will be is anyone's guess, but it will quite probably spread within Australia quicker than it has to date.

Outcomes will be much worse for the unvaccinated, subject age and comorbidities, but even the fit and vaccinated are still going to have upper respiratory problems and while not as severe for some they will have health issues from it.


Now we will open up, but the price of that even with high vaccination rates is more cases and adverse health events than we have now as Covid will be freely mixing within our population. The plus side are the many economic and social benefits that we will gain.

 

[Denali]

November KISS 2021 "Farewell" concerts.... "farewell" because I'm sure I've already seen two farewell concerts have been postponed from November 2021 to April 2022.

Now to contact Novotel to see if they will also transfer my prepaid accommodation.

 

[OATEK]

Just on the UK, and as others noted our two situations cannot be directly compared as our and experiences have been different, and are currently different. Plus it is now Delta at play and not Alpha, and so it is what has happened recently that is most relevant.

However some seem to be of the belief that our cases (infections) will go down post 80% and on opening up. However, I am not sure why? Cases/infections in Australia have been very low due out in the main strict measures combined with out bubble. So we are currently well below what will probably become the norm.

But once people are freely allowed to mix with active Covid infections in the community it should mean that cases/infections will go up and not down.

Vaccines minimise the severe adverse events of Covid. They do not stop transmission. They minimise the effects of what Covid does once it enters your body, but Covid will keep causing upper respiratory problems where the vaccine will not readily assist, and so Covid will still replicate and infect others. Plus the unvaccinated will also of course spread the virus.

If we just ignore the differences between Australia and the UK for the moment, crudely put at present in the UK about 30 thousand cases per day (it seems to be on the rise), and over one hundred deaths per day.

Adjusting for population that is in Australia about 13 thousand per day, and say 50 deaths per day. Even for just NSW that would be 4000 per day, and 16 deaths per day. The unknown is whether this drops off after some time, or whether it becomes like the flu where mutations keep causing new Cases each year. So it could be like a really, really bad flu season for one year only, or it may keep rolling along year after year. One extra disadvantage though is that it would seem that the health resources required to treat Covid patients may be substantially more than flu patients. If so that is going to requite an ongoing beefed up health system.

Now yes this will be up and down, but the vast majority of the Australian population has not yet been exposed to Covid. Once we start to freely mix, including worldwide, then eventually everyone will get exposed to Covid. How quick that will be is anyone's guess, but it will quite probably spread within Australia quicker than it has to date.

Outcomes will be much worse for the unvaccinated, subject age and comorbidities, but even the fit and vaccinated are still going to have upper respiratory problems and while not as severe for some they will have health issues from it.


Now we will open up, but the price of that even with high vaccination rates is more cases and adverse health events than we have now as Covid will be freely mixing within our population. The plus side are the many economic and social benefits that we will gain.

You said "if we just ignore the differences" - but how can we. As I said earlier, UK opened up with its "freedom day" where they let it rip. The proposal here, as I understand the Doherty modelling, as that we don't let it rip by keeping many restrictions in place (eg QR codes, social distancing etc). SO the comparison of 4,000/16 may be quite wrong.

 

[bcworld]

Apparently NSW has chopped the cap in half for Sept.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1432568157781127170

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

You said "if we just ignore the differences" - but how can we. As I said earlier, UK opened up with its "freedom day" where they let it rip. The proposal here, as I understand the Doherty modelling, as that we don't let it rip by keeping many restrictions in place (eg QR codes, social distancing etc). SO the comparison of 4,000/16 may be quite wrong.

But the question will then become how many will comply with continuing rules for fully vaccinated. From a question I posed a few weeks ago on one of these thread - there is quite a proportion that will refuse to comply with continued masks, social distancing, QR codes, etc. And once no more restrictions on unvaccinated, it will make everything so much more difficult to ensure compliance. And I'm pretty sure by that point police won't be around to heavy-handedly ensure compliance.

 

[jrfsp]

You said "if we just ignore the differences" - but how can we. As I said earlier, UK opened up with its "freedom day" where they let it rip. The proposal here, as I understand the Doherty modelling, as that we don't let it rip by keeping many restrictions in place (eg QR codes, social distancing etc). SO the comparison of 4,000/16 may be quite wrong.

The UK's freedom day was the final restrictions. There had been a gradual unwinding long before that day.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Apparently NSW has chopped the cap in half for Sept.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1432568157781127170

I hope its for a good reason like making those hotels extra SHAs or something like that. But its probably not.

 

[bcworld]

I hope its for a good reason like making those hotels extra SHAs or something like that. But its probably not.

Redeployment of health workers apparently.

 

[Denali]

Apparently NSW has chopped the cap in half for Sept.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1432568157781127170

Friend whose son has been working in Japan for almost 3 years is ready to come home and now the problem is two fold.

1. How to get a flight home, cost isn't the issue as its part of his work agreement but availability and,

2. His parents have since relocated from NSW to WA and how to get across the WA border to his family/resettle into new life

 

[justinbrett]

Just on the UK, and as others noted our two situations cannot be directly compared as our and experiences have been different, and are currently different. Plus it is now Delta at play and not Alpha, and so it is what has happened recently that is most relevant.

However some seem to be of the belief that our cases (infections) will go down post 80% and on opening up. However, I am not sure why? Cases/infections in Australia have been very low due out in the main strict measures combined with out bubble. So we are currently well below what will probably become the norm.

But once people are freely allowed to mix with active Covid infections in the community it should mean that cases/infections will go up and not down.

Vaccines minimise the severe adverse events of Covid. They do not stop transmission. They minimise the effects of what Covid does once it enters your body, but Covid will keep causing upper respiratory problems where the vaccine will not readily assist, and so Covid will still replicate and infect others. Plus the unvaccinated will also of course spread the virus.

If we just ignore the differences between Australia and the UK for the moment, crudely put at present in the UK about 30 thousand cases per day (it seems to be on the rise), and over one hundred deaths per day.

Adjusting for population that is in Australia about 13 thousand per day, and say 50 deaths per day. Even for just NSW that would be 4000 per day, and 16 deaths per day. The unknown is whether this drops off after some time, or whether it becomes like the flu where mutations keep causing new Cases each year. So it could be like a really, really bad flu season for one year only, or it may keep rolling along year after year. One extra disadvantage though is that it would seem that the health resources required to treat Covid patients may be substantially more than flu patients. If so that is going to requite an ongoing beefed up health system.

Now yes this will be up and down, but the vast majority of the Australian population has not yet been exposed to Covid. Once we start to freely mix, including worldwide, then eventually everyone will get exposed to Covid. How quick that will be is anyone's guess, but it will quite probably spread within Australia quicker than it has to date.

Outcomes will be much worse for the unvaccinated, subject age and comorbidities, but even the fit and vaccinated are still going to have upper respiratory problems and while not as severe for some they will have health issues from it.


Now we will open up, but the price of that even with high vaccination rates is more cases and adverse health events than we have now as Covid will be freely mixing within our population. The plus side are the many economic and social benefits that we will gain.

Incorrect, vaccines do not completely stop transmission but they significantly reduce the chance. You are still less likely to be infected with covid if you are fully vaccinated, and if you are, you are still less likely to infect others due to the reduced viral load. This is in addition to a reduced severity if you do get infected.

We do not need misinformation about vaccines and their effectiveness being circulated.

 

[Pushka]

The UK's freedom day was the final restrictions. There had been a gradual unwinding long before that day.

They threw the masks away that day and pretty much open travel.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

You said "if we just ignore the differences" - but how can we.

I only meant ignoring the differences for the sake of discussion as the differences are too vast to actually make valid comparison. Especially as the UK have already had about 20% infected.

As I said earlier, UK opened up with its "freedom day" where they let it rip. The proposal here, as I understand the Doherty modelling, as that we don't let it rip by keeping many restrictions in place (eg QR codes, social distancing etc).

Personally I think once we open up that social distancing will go out the window sooner or later. Maybe not for some months as we transition, but music festivals, crowded pubs, crowded restaurants, sporting events, Boxing Days etc are all going to come.

Now they may start with only selling tickets to the vaccinated for events or to dine, but that will just slow the tide down, it will not stop the tide. And vaccinated people can still feature in transmission chains.

SO the comparison of 4,000/16 may be quite wrong.

Yes it may be, however the point is that sooner or later everyone in Australia will get exposed to Covid. We have only had about 54,000 cases so far (and of course actual infected would be higher. We may open up with 4 million adults not vaccinated. Hopefully a lot less, but we will certainly seen active community spread when many adults are not vaccinated.

The attack rate of Delta is very high. As such the number of people with adverse outcomes is likely to be very sizable as our unvaccinated will be still sizable. Not all at once, but as exposures continue, adverse events will continue.

Hopefully our vaccination rate becomes one of the worlds highest. But infections are still going to happen. This will mainly effect the unvaccinated, but even some of the vaccinated will still have some Covid health issues.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Friend whose son has been working in Japan for almost 3 years is ready to come home and now the problem is two fold.

1. How to get a flight home, cost isn't the issue as its part of his work agreement but availability and,

2. His parents have since relocated from NSW to WA and how to get across the WA border to his family/resettle into new life

Go to Brisbane, then Perth? or direct to Perth?

 

[jrfsp]

Friend whose son has been working in Japan for almost 3 years is ready to come home and now the problem is two fold.

1. How to get a flight home, cost isn't the issue as its part of his work agreement but availability and,

2. His parents have since relocated from NSW to WA and how to get across the WA border to his family/resettle into new life

If be flying into BNE or PER if possible. Scoot have seats available into PER from SIN next month if he can book an SQ flight to SIN

 

[bcworld]

This area currently has the highest rate of new cases in Scotland (and it is a very high rate). It is also the number 1 most vaccinated area in the entire UK. These are just two facts and not intended to be anti-vax. What's missing is the age profile of the cases. Still, it is surprising at the very least.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

2. His parents have since relocated from NSW to WA and how to get across the WA border to his family/resettle into new life

Does he have a HGV license?

 

[VPS]

They threw the masks away that day and pretty much open travel.

Covid: Cornwall tourists urged to 'stay away' as cases rise

Visit Cornwall says only people who have booked should visit as cases nearly double in a week.

www.bbc.com

It's not doing well though