Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[drron]

I don't see that proposed definition of a hotspot to be 1 case of mystery transmission.It says -
It is an area where the disease is spreading in the community and cases are acquired locally but the source of infection for a proportion of cases in the previous 28 days is not clear
It talks of the disease spreading and a proportion of the cases are unknown cayse.That implies multiple cases rather than just 1.

 

[jakeseven7]

Brisbane Times is reporting:

In a letter sent to all premiers and chief ministers, seen by Brisbane Times, the nation's health panel has outlined its proposed definition for a COVID-19 hotspot ahead of national cabinet on Friday.

The Australian Health Protection Principal Committee, a panel made up of all state and territory chief health officers and chaired by the national Chief Medical Officer, will have the power to declare hotspots.

The panel has set out three proposed definitions for COVID-free, controlled and community transmission zones.

A COVID-free zone would be an “area that has no locally acquired cases that pose a risk to the community in the previous 28 days”.

A controlled zone is an area with locally acquired cases in the previous 28 days, but where authorities have been able to trace how someone contracted the virus.

A community transmission zone, known as a hotspot, will be determined by the AHPPC rather than individual states. “It is an area where the disease is spreading in the community and cases are acquired locally but the source of infection for a proportion of cases in the previous 28 days is not clear.” The committee made it clear that its declaration of a hotspot would not “trigger or preclude specific actions for state and territories to take”.

It has not specified if an "area" would constitute a postcode, local government area or an entire state or territory.

The release of the definition comes after Brisbane Times revealed Queensland was considering relaxing the rule from 28 days down to 14 days. That move would have had to be agreed to by health officers in other states and territories.

The problem I see is that 1 mystery case would trigger the "community transmission zone / hotspot" declaration which then may trigger premiers to close borders but it may be change to controlled zone 24 hours later as contract tracing takes 24-48 hours. There would have to be a mandatory lag of 48-72 hours from a community transmission case to declaration to allow contract tracing to play our or people will be stranded or unable to plan.

What is their 'zone' or 'area' definition I guess is important to determine? A postcode?

 

[jb747]

Vic border was only domestic border that needed to close and they shouldn't have to get to zero for it to reopen, which is why NSW is relaxing more regional border bubbles with Vic now that their numbers have improved.

NSW will be the first to reopen to Vic as a whole of that I am sure.

Probably, but then given that it’s really the only major border (in terms of movements), then that makes sense anyway. As a border resident though, I find the way it was done to be quite disgusting, and I wonder if there is going to be a fair bit of residual bad will from people who needlessly had their lives so distorted. There was nothing rational about the way it was done. In my case, I’ve had cause to use some Vic based businesses that I might not have looked at otherwise, so I expect that will become permanent.

Gladys' language around international arrivals this morning was careful to talk about Australians and how NSW taking lions share was helping reunite Australians from all states,. Unlike AP who believes Queensland is its own country. The most effective way to force other states to take their fair share and open borders to NSW would be for NSW to stop accepting international arrivals into SYD of non NSW residents - but Gladys is not heartless, she sees a bigger picture than WA, Qld, SA, NT and Tas do atm.

That would not be heartless. It would be quite reasonable. Certainly every bit as reasonable as saying that “Qld hospitals are for Queenslanders”.

GST carve up next time around will be interesting. The pie will be much smaller, and I’d expect a lot less heading north or west.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Quoting passage cited by Lynda2475 off Brisbane Times:

A community transmission zone, known as a hotspot, will be determined by the AHPPC rather than individual states. “It is an area where the disease is spreading in the community and cases are acquired locally but the source of infection for a proportion of cases in the previous 28 days is not clear.” The committee made it clear that its declaration of a hotspot would not “trigger or preclude specific actions for state and territories to take”.



I tend to agree with the sentiment 1 community transmission could be enough, even if AHPPC (a majority??) agree, it’s not much of a filter because of the last sentence that it’s not a trigger Or preclude (read border closures / quarantine being imposed at traveller’s cost).....good grief.

I much preferred the 30 / 3 or say 50 / 5 rule and if needed 5 / 5 community transmission rule just to give time for cases to resolve

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Getting whiter in Vic - ie Active cases approaching zero per postcode.

 

[jakeseven7]

VIC active cases are hurtling down as well, around 900..... great to see it 3 digits!

 

[dajop]

Not that I would wish it on them, but what would the states do if a “community” hotspot came about in Coolongatta/Tweed Heads (but not Sydney/Brisbane). Or Albury/Wodonga?

 

[get me outta here]

To inject a spot of positivity, here’s hopefully a way back to normality:

Aspen Medical to lead COVID-safe trial for major events

A pilot program looking at how large gatherings such as music concerts and major sporting fixtures could be carried out safely in the age of coronavirus mean the events could be a step closer to returning.
The pilot event is being conducted by Canberra-based health service Aspen Medical, which is collaborating with a major events organiser.

The event will be used to contribute to research that will be passed onto a state or territory government to determine how major events can be conducted in a COVID-safe way. (See Canberra Times).

 

[jakeseven7]

Not that I would wish it on them, but what would the states do if a “community” hotspot came about in Coolongatta/Tweed Heads (but not Sydney/Brisbane). Or Albury/Wodonga?

Think it depends whose jurisdiction it was, Dr Young would probably nuke the community and declare it off limits for 500 years and wouldn’t tell NSW before she was doing it because that is what Anna would want (but Anna would blame her and say it was her decision).

Prof Brett Sutton would probably isolate and triage the area, working with Dr Chant to do so until it was fixed then release restrictions as soon as possible afterwards, understanding the human toll of them. Their Premiers seem to be more practical about working together and communicating.

 

[jakeseven7]

VIC:
28 cases
8 deaths

 

[lovetravellingoz]

As predicted, a large decline in the Melbourne trigger today due to the spike in numbers on 3 Sept moving out of the 14 days that are averaged.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1306363668200738817

 

[Flying mermaid]

So good to see the numbers way down!

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

First time Vic is in the 20s since 24 June....woohoo!

Have they got to the point where they can individually list the location of each new case??? And perhaps whether they are an out of home worker or not??

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Qld 1 new case, linked to current outbreak, and 27 active

 

[jakeseven7]

First time Vic is in the 20s since 24 June....woohoo!

Have they got to the point where they can individually list the location of each new case??? And perhaps whether they are an out of home worker or not??

Prof Sutton addressed a cohort of medical professionals last night. Aged care is still an issue.

The actual number of cases in the community is very small, they released 3 locations last night for public warning (a KFC included which should be on the warning for many other reasons ), but again - everyone is locked down in Melbourne there is hardly anywhere for people to go that they could be considered a close contact or high risk.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Prof Sutton addressed a cohort of medical professionals last night. Aged care is still an issue.

The actual number of cases in the community is very small, they released 3 locations last night for public warning (a KFC included which should be on the warning for many other reasons ), but again - everyone is locked down in Melbourne there is hardly anywhere for people to go that they could be considered a close contact or high risk.

Even if Melbourne is essentially locked down, a bit more transparency and starting to show they are contact tracing will give the public and perhaps other States more confidence things are actually under control (as opposed to obtain reducing numbers as a result of lockdown)

Eg Case 17 today lives at Somerton and worked at KFC Broadmeadows and all customers are considered casual contacts and should monitor for symptoms. We believe case 17 acquired the virus from ...

 

[jakeseven7]

Even if Melbourne is essentially locked down, a bit more transparency and starting to show they are contact tracing will give the public and perhaps other States more confidence things are actually under control (as opposed to obtain reducing numbers as a result of lockdown)

Agree and they've already announced they are doing that - a few weeks ago I think and have already started doing it.... there just isn't much to report because everyone is locked down and the amount of places they can visit and be a true close contact is minuscule right now. 3 to be exact yesterday.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Have they got to the point where they can individually list the location of each new case???

No they are not itemising that. Though many of the workplaces do get mentioned.

However if a case is in a setting that may have interchange with the public that location is released. ie Fountain Gate Shopping Centre and the two recent Woolworths stores.

ie Unlike Regional Vic now and other states there are not the restaurant, pub and gyms locations where transmission tends to be rife and which people might then choose to avoid..

New cases are still mainly in workplaces, health care (mainly in aged care worker) and within families and so general public cannot visit any of these.


Areas which have a spike are identified so that locals are prompted to seek testing. ie Hallam/Casey at present. Colac not long back.


PS. From memory they will list outbreaks. In aged care that is a case of 1. For other locations this is 10 or more. Family clusters tend to only be mentioned by LGS or postcode (or in Regional Vic sometimes town).

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

No they are not itemising that. Though many of the workplaces do get mentioned.

However if a case is in a setting that may have interchange with the public that location is released. ie Fountain Gate Shopping Centre and the two recent Woolworths stores.

ie Unlike Regional Vic now and other states there are not the restaurant, pub and gyms locations where transmission tends to be rife and which people might then choose to avoid..

New cases are still mainly in workplaces, health care (mainly in aged care worker) and within families and so general public cannot visit any of these.


Areas which have a spike are identified so that locals are prompted to seek testing. ie Hallam/Casey at present. Colac not long back.

Yes, it was my impression they were not doing it. It was something they could/should start doing with some more detail, especially cases are probably low enough to start doing. Transparency will give more confidence.

Some may have a choice of suburb to do their regular shop and might choose a less risky one based on the transparency provided in real time.

Below NSW eg of 22 cases - it’s lengthy cut and paste.....if you have no venues of interest even residence suburb is of interest to some in making their choice about exercise/shopping, instead of daily waiting of the heatmap.

Of the 22 new cases reported to 8.00pm last night:

16 were locally acquired and linked to known cases
four are returned travellers from overseas
one was acquired in Melbourne
one was locally acquired, and is under investigation
Eight cases reported to 8pm last night are linked with Tangara School for Girls. These cases include five students, a staff member and two social contacts of confirmed cases. In total, 17 cases (including 11 students) are now associated with the school. The original source of this cluster remains under investigation.

The school’s secondary campus will close until Monday, 24 August. The junior campus will close until Tuesday, 11 August but will re-open on Wednesday, 12 August for those students whose parents need to send their children to school.

All students, staff and support staff of the secondary school must self-isolate for 14 days and get tested, regardless of symptoms. Students of the primary school must monitor for symptoms and get tested if symptoms develop, even when they are mild.

Two of today’s cases are contacts of a previously reported case from the Batemans Bay Soldiers’ Club. This brings the number of cases associated with the Soldiers’ Club to 10. One of the two cases is a student at Batemans Bay High School. The other attends Batemans Bay public school. The schools are closed today for cleaning, and contact tracing is under way.

A student from Our Lady of Mercy College at Parramatta – mentioned in yesterday’s media release – is included in today’s numbers. The school was closed for cleaning on Monday, and contact tracing is underway. Two students, who were close contacts at the school have now tested positive.

One case reported today is associated with the Thai Rock Wetherill Park restaurant cluster. This brings the total number of cases associated with that cluster to 112.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW 5 new cases

Of the five new cases:
- 2 are returned overseas travellers in hotel quarantine
- 2 are locally acquired and linked to a known case or cluster
- 1 is locally acquired and under investigation