Qantas & the A380, will it work?

[medhead]

More so a population deficit. A new airport in Sydney and Melbourne is way way way cheaper than a real line. Airspace is free.

Unless oil does to the stratosphere (and at the moment it has fallen) then high speed rail has no chance

I was replying to a post about the airspace running out. When MEL-SYD is in the top ten busiest routes in the world there isn't a population deficit. But the distance would make it hard to compete. But Canberra/Newcastle/Sydney should certainly have the population and short enough distance to make things viable. People currently living out west could even move to cheaper housing in Goulburn and save travel time.

Oil is artificially low at the moment due to OPEC. I don't expect that to continue.

 

[hossein_au]

More so a population deficit. A new airport in Sydney and Melbourne is way way way cheaper than a real line. Airspace is free.

Unless oil does to the stratosphere (and at the moment it has fallen) then high speed rail has no chance

I do not buy the population deficit argument for a second. MEL-SYD is one of the busiest routes in the world. And it can be done in a fast train in 2-3 hours. What we lack is not population, it's "States men"; in contract to career politicians, if you know what I mean (and to the political-correctness police, I mean this in a gender neutral way). Every once in a while we do get a lone politician with one or two brilliant ideas, but there are so many other things wrong with the person that they overshadow the great ideas.

 

[Himeno]

More so a population deficit. A new airport in Sydney and Melbourne is way way way cheaper than a real line. Airspace is free.

Not so much population, more the geography along the east coast. Such that the highway from Canberra to Melbourne requires going NW to Yass before turning south towards Melbourne. A Melbourne-Canberra-Sydney-Brisbane high speed rail line would have to route out of the way for a good part of the trip unless they want to blast through a few dozen mountains.

How long has the Hume Highway bypass/duplication project been going on for? I don't think it's even complete yet.

Sure but the remaining 8 A380s are on order, not on option

They have 8 on order and 4 options. Those 8 were converted from options a few years after the initial order. If they end up cancelling them, any penalties or other costs would depend on what's in the contract.

 

[Himeno]

Every once in a while we do get a lone politician with one or two brilliant ideas, but there are so many other things wrong with the person that they overshadow the great ideas.

Doesn't that cover almost every independent federal politician we've had for the last 20 years. 1 or 2 good ideas, but they get ignored because they are otherwise insane.

 

[hossein_au]

Doesn't that cover almost every independent federal politician we've had for the last 20 years. 1 or 2 good ideas, but they get ignored because they are otherwise insane.

Precisely my point

 

[hossein_au]

Not so much population, more the geography along the east coast. Such that the highway from Canberra to Melbourne requires going NW to Yass before turning south towards Melbourne. A Melbourne-Canberra-Sydney-Brisbane high speed rail line would have to route out of the way for a good part of the trip unless they want to blast through a few dozen mountains.

The highway from Canberra to Melbourne does not "require" going NW to Yass before turning south, it is just the way they built it back then. For many decades highways and railroads have been built in mountainous terrain far higher and more rugged than what we have here in Australia. As an example, this road (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VlUABECPq0) was first built in the 1950s and 1960s in Iran. Excuse me if I don't believe it when 50-60 years on, people tell me this cannot be done in Australia or roads require giving a wide berth to the Snowy Mountains.

 

[Himeno]

The highway from Canberra to Melbourne does not "require" going NW to Yass before turning south, it is just the way they built it back then. For many decades highways and railroads have been built in mountainous terrain far higher and more rugged than what we have here in Australia. As an example, this road (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VlUABECPq0) was first built in the 1950s and 1960s in Iran. Excuse me if I don't believe it when 50-60 years on, people tell me this cannot be done in Australia or roads require giving a wide berth to the Snowy Mountains.

Do you see the Department of Infrastructure planning a new highway through the Great Dividing Range from say, Canberra to Albury that would have the potential to cut 2-3 hours off the road trip between Sydney and Melbourne?

 

[dajop]

Back on topic (well sort of), the other day I was reading a thread on flyertalk (Emirates forum), in which the thread instigator was basically stating that EK is a big scam, must be getting some sort of subsidy from the Dubai royals/government, basically because they are running the A380 between DXB & the US (particularly between IAH & DXB). This was basically because DL's CEO and Doug Parker (US/AA CEO) both said that no airline could make a profit using A380s. The thread made a interesting and at times funny or frustrating read. When people mentioned QF's long haul A380 service, in particular DFW-SYD, the thread instigator ignored it , but someone else chimed in and suggested that QF's funny accounting procedures are the only reason they could possibly make a profit on their A380 routes.

So do people here think QF make a profit on any of their long haul A380 routes (which are most of them)? I've got a gut feel that they must make some profit (as do EK).

 

[moa999]

Like any aircraft fill it at good yield and you make money.
Have it half full with discount fares and I suspect it's losing money.

Personally I suspect it's a US/Boeing centric view (no US airline operates A380s and it is made in Europe)

Plenty of airlines have ordered the A380s and I'm sure there not all charities. While Boeing claims a lower seat/km cost for its 747-8 I suspect they are pretty line ball in reality

 

[hossein_au]

Like any aircraft fill it at good yield and you make money.
Have it half full with discount fares and I suspect it's losing money.

Personally I suspect it's a US/Boeing centric view (no US airline operates A380s and it is made in Europe)

Plenty of airlines have ordered the A380s and I'm sure there not all charities. While Boeing claims a lower seat/km cost for its 787-8 I suspect they are pretty line ball in reality

The beauty of numbers in marketing materials is that you can massage them to tell the exact story you want. I bet if you do the numbers for carrying 500 people over a long distance, the numbers will not be in 787 favour.

 

[hossein_au]

Do you see the Department of Infrastructure planning a new highway through the Great Dividing Range from say, Canberra to Albury that would have the potential to cut 2-3 hours off the road trip between Sydney and Melbourne?

No I haven't, but I guess the key phrase being "...planning...". It takes balls to go from planning to actually doing something.

 

[moa999]

The beauty of numbers in marketing materials is that you can massage them to tell the exact story you want. I bet if you do the numbers for carrying 500 people over a long distance, the numbers will not be in 787 favour.

Meant 747-8 in my post.
But for 500 people at the same time (eg curfew airports at both ends) 787 also needs four engines




And two airframes

 

[hossein_au]

Meant 747-8 in my post.
But for 500 people at the same time (eg curfew airports at both ends) 787 also needs four engines




And two airframes

Exactly. So you see, you can always present numbers in favour of the point you're trying to make. That is why it is important to clearly state the problem you're trying to solve and not rely on marketing numbers suppliers feed you.

 

[maninblack]

Qantas certainly hasn't made much profit since bringing the A380 into service, I think losses are net around 2 billion coughulative since FY09

 

[codash1099]

Qantas certainly hasn't made much profit since bringing the A380 into service, I think losses are net around 2 billion coughulative since FY09

If you are claiming cause and effect with that statement, you are on very doubtful ground.

 

[maninblack]

Merely an observation. Another observation, Air New Zealand has engaged in a program of fleet renewal with twins only and racks up increasing profits.

(OT but NZ also provide a better on board service up in J and have proper sized overhead luggage bins)

 

[moa999]

And how much of AirNZ's profit has come from near monopoly domestic route (against a startup LCC) and a bunch of monopoly international routes.

Not saying AirNZ has done badly but its position and routes are very different to Qantas

 

[maninblack]

And how much of AirNZ's profit has come from near monopoly domestic route (against a startup LCC) and a bunch of monopoly international routes.

Not saying AirNZ has done badly but its position and routes are very different to Qantas

Qantas had a near monopoly against a startup LCC for many years and squandered it. Qantas is in a position of its own making as is Air New Zealand. We make our own luck in life. NZ has made smart strategic decisions and makes profit. QF has not made smart strategic decisions and overall makes losses.

Every flight in NZ J is a delightful experience. QF is certainly hit and miss. A reflection if the two airlines respective fortunes perhaps.

 

[medhead]

.

Every flight in NZ J is a delightful experience. QF is certainly hit and miss. A reflection if the two airlines respective fortunes perhaps.

Or a reflection of their size. Less staff easier to instill consistent standards

 

[mannej]

Qantas had a near monopoly against a startup LCC for many years and squandered it

Perhaps that may be true for the AU domestic market only.