Virgin Bali expansion, next up CBR-DPS

[liam1098]

If VA were desperate for PER-DPS, they wouldve "exited BNE-DPS" by now

I bet you were suprised when VA added CBR-DPS, weren't you?

 

[Saab34]

Going off the IASC application the other year it’s clear they want a PER-DPS flight but they couldn’t get their heads around the ‘D’ transfer portion and seemed to just throw in the towel.

PER-DPS is crowed but TransNusa have terrible loads, AirAsia are in a murky financial position. Batik Indonesia actually gets good loads. I think that market might be in for a shakeup soon with fuel prices likely remaining elevated for the remainder of the year.

 

[HS-TQE]

I bet you were suprised when VA added CBR-DPS, weren't you?

Considering CBR were reportedly throwing around privately funded subsidies to attract some international services (in spite of their airport fees), probably a bit of both to be honest.

It would've not beem eligible for taxpayer subsidies as a leisure destination however.

 

[HS-TQE]

Going off the IASC application the other year it’s clear they want a PER-DPS flight but they couldn’t get their heads around the ‘D’ transfer portion and seemed to just throw in the towel.

PER-DPS is crowed but TransNusa have terrible loads, AirAsia are in a murky financial position. Batik Indonesia actually gets good loads. I think that market might be in for a shakeup soon with fuel prices likely remaining elevated for the remainder of the year.

Batik Indonesia is also the only carrier that offers recliner J and limited lounge access (DPS only) on the route as well.

However Batik/Lion group is in for a shakeup if they cant get through the fuel crisis situation effectively.

 

[Lucass]

I honestly think a second daily SYD-DPS flight would be more profitable than BNE. One morning, one evening option for VA guests. Lots of feed from domestic ports into SYD as well that would increase loads. VA have proven OOL-DPS to be every popular, consistently recording high loads, and having up to daily flights. I imagine MCY-DPS x3 weekly would be successful as well

 

[liam1098]

I honestly think a second daily SYD-DPS flight would be more profitable than BNE. One morning, one evening option for VA guests. Lots of feed from domestic ports into SYD as well that would increase loads. VA have proven OOL-DPS to be every popular, consistently recording high loads, and having up to daily flights. I imagine MCY-DPS x3 weekly would be successful as well

MCY could work, but BNE flights would probably cannibalise MCY. So it would have to be one or the other

 

[Saab34]

In fact having a look at the VA Application it was for double daily PER-DPS. Revenue was estimated at $156m.

Traffic seems fairly flat YoY for both Sydney and Brisbane to Bali. Moving a flight to Sydney will likely just weaken margins in Sydney while boosting competitor margins in Brisbane. I think VA would just be boxing themselves in a corner. Certainly growth in Melbourne to Bali at the moment.

For the moment I think restarting Adelaide is likely the best option. It appears Canberra was likely the right call, as long as Jetstar stays away.

 

[jase05]

For the moment I think restarting Adelaide is likely the best option.

Yeah, squeeze QZ out.
I know there is a whole group of us that go over once or twice per year and would use them again for the way over. if they returned services. It did seem pretty popular with the majority of our friends who like us won’t fly Jetstar.
VA would be the only service to operate J and have lounge access which is an added bonus

 

[HS-TQE]

OOL-DPS may be able to accomodate JQ and VA, but MCY accomodating 2 carriers is questionable at best, and that's taking the North Brisbane and Gympie catchments into it.

 

[twinaisle]

OOL-DPS may be able to accomodate JQ and VA, but MCY accomodating 2 carriers is questionable at best, and that's taking the North Brisbane and Gympie catchments into it.

I'm surprised someone here hasn't suggested Bundaberg to Bali because VA have network/market and velocity members.

 

[Lucass]

I'm surprised someone here hasn't suggested Bundaberg to Bali because VA have network/market and velocity members.

What?

 

[markis10]

I'm surprised someone here hasn't suggested Bundaberg to Bali because VA have network/market and velocity members.

Most of our members would be aware BDB is not an international airport. As for your assertion that if it would have worked JQ would have done it, think Bonza proved otherwise with JQ subsequently taking up the route after their demise in the case of a couple of flights.

 

[HS-TQE]

I'm surprised someone here hasn't suggested Bundaberg to Bali because VA have network/market and velocity members.

While we're at it "VA should start Ballina to Bali and Albury to Bali because VA has large Velocity base to start it..."

 

[Harrison_133]

Good lord. VA are not dropping BNE-DPS. It's the only Bali route that doesn't get a frequency reduction in the low season.

Talk of E2s to Bali from regional WA. Not going to happen. The routes are way too thin and have small population bases to pull from. VA have been very clear what the purpose of the E2s is. Hint: it's not SHI.

Adelaide is the only route which would make sense but I wouldn't count on it. The "aircraft availability" excuse when they cut it was a cop out. The aircraft just sat on the ground in ADL instead of going to Bali. That gap actually still exists in the ADL schedules, yet they choose not to bring it back. The loads were also quite trash during the low season, so any return of ADL-DPS would likely be seasonal.

VA's Bali operations will remain stagnant, but the QF Group will also reach the peak of what they can do with Indonesia too. And I'd argue they're pretty much there. JQ have used up all of the special bilateral work arounds, and there are only so many thin routes they can add. Without Government intervention, the Australian carriers have reached the limit of what they can do with Indonesia flying.

Look, it's fun to speculate on new routes, but I think we're starting to lose some perspective here.