As you know, from our discussion a few posts ago - I did exactly this, Flexi to J by adding 9900 points. Who doesn't like J? But I wouldn't have been heartbroken to travel Y as its still decent on the VA 330's. So, this is the perfect scenario for one of these upgrademe options. Put in the bid, if it comes through, and anecdotal evidence is suggesting it very often does (at least right now), then wheeee! If not, its ok.
Now of of course I would have been annoyed to have paid Flexi and not been able to upgrade, this was the point of getting a flexi ticket. Theres a small gamble in there, but you can reduce the risk with a bit of research (though not entirely remove it).
The numbers look like this to me:
PER-MEL one way
* Business Reward, 36,600, guaranteed seat (so long as stock is available of course). No SC or FF points earn.
* J outright, $1899 ($1424 if you include the 'value' of returned FF) , guaranteed seat, returning 80SC and 9500FF points (assuming you don't have status).
Interestingly, this inflated dollar price suggests that points are worth 5c each (1899 / 36,600 reward points price). I don't necessarily agree, but nevertheless, lets use this figure for this hypothetical. Returned points 'value' then is around $475. 80SC? As in my previous post, you have to wonder what upgrademe pricing means to the whole status game and if there is much ongoing residual value in holding gold/platinum. Always hard to put a dollar figure on SC's. Same with flight segments. Both segments and SC's are needed to gain/retain status but have no other useful inherent value. If we're already travelling J then status isn't really needed. I'm inclined to assume a $0 value for this hypothetical but am open to other interpretations.
* Discount Y points upgrade to J, $250 ($187 including returned FF) + 30,000 points, 20SC, 1250FF (suggesting FF=1c each as Y reward = 19700 points, however, lets assume you'd use points for future J rewards at 5c each as above).
* Flexi Y points upgrade to J, $559 ($420 inc returned FF) + 9900 points, 40SC, 2795FF.
* Discount Y upgrademe money to J, $250 ($187 inc returned FF) + $300 = $550, 20SC, 1250FF
Value proposition then:
* J reward = 36,600 FF = $1830 (its really 1899, but I've rounded everything down points/value wise)
* J outright = $1424
* Y- points up = $187 + 30K=$1687
* Y points up = $420 + 9.9K = $915
* Y- + bid = $187 + $300 = $487
Of course, there is a 'funny' in the calcs above, need to be careful to not use points twice. Need to use 30K to up from Y- to J, but where do those points come from? If flying only then you can't remove the value of those points from the original ticket cost ... but lets assume those points come from elsewhere, like credit card spend at woolies or BP or something. In any event, the margin differentials are so huge it doesn't really make a difference to the point being made.
Its hard to make an argument against using upgrademe money - at least right now.
If J is important and a guaranteed seat is required then $$ is the only way, sure. If J is important but you're willing to take a little risk and do a little background work, then J rewards or one of the points upgrade options is a decent option, though Y- up to J with points appears to be a bit overpriced. If J is viewed as being nice, but not really imperative, and so long as paid/prebooked J PAX haven't scooped up most or all the available seats then Y- + money bid seems far and away the easy choice.
It probably going to be a temporary situation I guess (?) As more and more travellers cotton on to this the success of low value bids will start to dry up ... you'd imagine.