United one day out of trans-pacific?

[yogi]

An article about VA starting up. Talks about how there will be more airlines and then...

"Yet Sir Richard said that he expected at least one of the four airlines - United - to pull out within the next two to three years. He dismissed its quality of service as "dire" and said it would be unable to compete with the modern, fuel-efficient 777s."

What do you think?

(and what will I do with all my Mileage Plus points? )

ps. Couldn't post the link, as I am a new member, but it was found on google news australia in the courier mail...

 

[Mal]

The Bearded one is often full of hot air, and things he says don't always come true.

However - I believe United are in trouble on the Pacific route with V Australia and Delta entering. While United has loyalty from US (and sometimes AU) based MP members, the US economy is drying up for business travel. So a lot of business travel will be dropped and the route will become more of a leisure route.

United can't compete with other airlines in Economy. eg - no Seat back entertainment in economy, and Australians tending to prefer to fly Qantas or V Australia (if they get the right marketing sorted out).

So if their Frequent flyers paying big $ for flexible tickets dry up, and they're stuck with price sensitive leisure flyers, then they'd have to fare themselves appropriately.

I suppose the real question is: What is their loss point on the Pacific route? And, are they prepared to lose money on this route on the long term should my predictions come true?

BTW - Welcome to AFF!

 

[NYCguy]

There's one thing UA has that Branson's brand doesn't, and probably never will - seamless connections to literally hundreds of cities at SFO or LAX. Easy connections are very attractive to travelers - the idea of arriving at LAX after a 13-hour flight, and then having to go and check in again for a connection is a most unattractive proposition.

Oh, wait, I forgot - if you're headed for Seattle, you can connect with Alaska Airlines. So there's one easy connection...

Then there are the days that SYD pax will have to connect via BNE after the crack-of-dawn arrival back in Australia.

Branson sure is good at "feeding the chooks", though...

 

[Mal]

There's one thing UA has that Branson's brand doesn't, and probably never will - seamless connections to literally hundreds of cities at SFO or LAX.

AA has >160 destinations in the U.S (last time I checked) and of course ties into Qantas flights quite well. The A380 for Qantas is likely to also give them better efficiency and lower prices.

Not sure about how many Delta destination cities there are in the U.S, but there are a lot more than a handful.

Virgin America may one day become a bigger airline - can't see it covering the depth of cities that AA and UA do though. V Australia could also codeshare/partner with more U.S airlines if they were able to get the agreements.

Freight always plays a big part in making a route profitable. So that's another variable.

Will be interesting to watch the shake-up as it occurs over the next year or two.

 

[ANstar]

I predict a UA pull out of SYD-LAX in favour of VA codesharing at some point (fast forward 12 months or so)

 

[MelUser]

I don't mind them pulling out of SYD-LAX if they replace it with MEL-LAX!

 

[serfty]

G'day yogi, welcomne to AFF .

... ps. Couldn't post the link, as I am a new member, but it was found on google news australia in the courier mail...

'ere be dat link: V Australia goes for the Qantas jugular | The Australian

 

[NM]

There's one thing UA has that Branson's brand doesn't, and probably never will - seamless connections to literally hundreds of cities at SFO or LAX. Easy connections are very attractive to travelers - the idea of arriving at LAX after a 13-hour flight, and then having to go and check in again for a connection is a most unattractive proposition.

Another thing in UA's favour is the millions of Star Alliance FF members, especially USA-based UA MP members, who will chose based on FF mileage addiction over service. Yes, they can use NZ, but many still chose the UA path to Australia from USA.

Now if SQ was to operate the route, then I think UA would be in real trouble (more so than Qantas).

 

[laffer]

Branson does have a point though about the UA offering in Y. It is dire. Having flown with them to SFO I have to say that the next time I flew to the US I looked at QF and eventually went via Tahiti with Air Tahiti (a very good airline in my opinion). UA have milked the cow for what it is worth on the pacific route and if VA and Delta can offer decent products at reasonable prices then yes, I think, UA will be in trouble.

The question is: What sort of service will Delta offer? Will it be the same as UA?

 

[NYCguy]

Now if SQ was to operate the route, then I think UA would be in real trouble (more so than Qantas).

You can say that again... 77Ws or 388s between SFO/LAX and SYD, and I'm so there..

 

[kpc]

Now if SQ was to operate the route, then I think UA would be in real trouble (more so than Qantas).

...and I would forgive them for their PPS debacle and start flying them again almost exclusively...aiming for KF Gold as opposed to PPS

 

[yogi]

Thankyou for your kind welcome and good to see all of the various opinions. It will be interesting to see how things play out in the next while.

I don't tend to fly frequently, but will actually be heading to the US in a few months, so was following along with all the industry happenings. I got myself a nice $1200ish SYD - LAX on VA over their summer, but have quite some UA miles from some time ago; so was minorly cranky to see a 3-figured UA return flight just the other day. Anyway...

 

[clifford]

have quite some UA miles from some time ago;

Wouldn't they have been lost due to the 18-month rule, or are you actively keeping them alive?

Anyway, until Virgin/V whatever can get their act together with a decent FF program which allows me to redeem miles on major International airlines around the world (at a less than ripoff price), I won't be sampling their wares.

If I fly UA, they give me a free domestic Y class ticket. If I fly V, then what? See where I'm coming from?

 

[ANstar]

Anyway, until Virgin/V whatever can get their act together with a decent FF program which allows me to redeem miles on major International airlines around the world (at a less than ripoff price), ?

Aren't the Y burn fares on Virgin, Malaysian, Hawaiian etc similar to Y burn rates on QF and it's partners?

 

[clifford]

Aren't the Y burn fares on Virgin, Malaysian, Hawaiian etc similar to Y burn rates on QF and it's partners?

But have you seen the taxes/fuel surcharges?

 

[yogi]

Wouldn't they have been lost due to the 18-month rule, or are you actively keeping them alive?

Kept them alive. I don't like to waste and it was too many to consider letting go.

***
I guess there could eventually the possibility of "The V Team" alliance (you heard that name here first ), combining all the V's and other select partner airlines. Maybe. Obviously reach would be an issue, but maybe marketed correctly, it could be pulled off. A "hemispehere" alliance or something...

 

[JohnK]

"Yet Sir Richard said that he expected at least one of the four airlines - United - to pull out within the next two to three years. He dismissed its quality of service as "dire" and said it would be unable to compete with the modern, fuel-efficient 777s."

Interesting comment to make considering that V Australia and Delta have not yet started operating on the Pacific route.

(and what will I do with all my Mileage Plus points? )

I wouldn't be too concerned about Mileage Plus miles just yet based on what may happen on the Pacific route in a few years time.

 

[pauly7]

"Yet Sir Richard said that he expected at least one of the four airlines - United - to pull out within the next two to three years. He dismissed its quality of service as "dire" and said it would be unable to compete with the modern, fuel-efficient 777s."

...

Anything to get in the paper....

I'm not a fan of UA's current product but from what I have seen their new product looks heaps better than V-Australia's!

 

[NYCguy]

...and I would forgive them for their PPS debacle and start flying them again almost exclusively...aiming for KF Gold as opposed to PPS

Surely if you're doing regular trans-Pacs in J or F you'll hit PPS in no time, even paying discounted corporate fares?

 

[Evan]

Surely if you're doing regular trans-Pacs in J or F you'll hit PPS in no time, even paying discounted corporate fares?

Lets say your doing MEL-SIN flights, i guess at 5k per return flight at discount you would need 5 trips a year to make pps, if doing to USA, maybe 7.5k pair of flights = 4 trips per year for pps.
hmmm i wont be making it unless i get a new job, no chance. (Because my company only pays whY mostly and i wont send that much a year personal)

E