Tokyo Haneda slot - how will Virgin Operate it?

[justinbrett]

I think there's buckley's chance VA will launch a one stop service via GUM or anywhere else.

There's a significant chance the max won't be ready, and if it is - is a long oceanic flight the best way to introduce a type that some have reservations over?

I think a wet lease deal is pretty unlikely too. A lot of risk for not much gain. Completely different to NZ wet leasing on PER-AKL, a proven route with no competition.

I think the only way VA are holding on to those slots is a deal with ANA to operate the route on their behalf, or a slot waiver.

 

[Saab34]

The MAX 8 should be on schedule, they could be taking some ntu aircraft still plenty parked up. The MAX10 won’t be on schedule don’t expect to see that in VA colours for at least 2 years. Could be MAX9’s if Boeing cancel it.

 

[Mattg]

I think a wet lease deal is pretty unlikely too. A lot of risk for not much gain. Completely different to NZ wet leasing on PER-AKL, a proven route with no competition.

I think the only way VA are holding on to those slots is a deal with ANA to operate the route on their behalf, or a slot waiver.

If ANA operate it, wouldn't that have to be as a wet lease arrangement? Because the HND slot awarded to VA can only be utilised by an Australian airline.

 

[justinbrett]

If ANA operate it, wouldn't that have to be as a wet lease arrangement? Because the HND slot awarded to VA can only be utilised by an Australian airline.

Technically, probably yes, but given that ANA pax could fly on a codeshare that's operated by their own airline, it seems much less risky.

I don't know the ins and outs of what's possible with the way the Japanese government manages slots and how much coordination is allowed on the VA/NH agreement. But I imagine something like this is the only thing that's going to save the VA slots. VA can't go it alone.

 

[justinbrett]

The MAX 8 should be on schedule

Quite a lot of carriers have had delays to their -8s this year. Not overly significant (several months), but enough to spoil this slot plan.

 

[jakeseven7]

Quite a lot of carriers have had delays to their -8s this year. Not overly significant (several months), but enough to spoil this slot plan.

And the interesting question will be will people be ok flying them. In the US you are still able to move to another flight free of charge if you aren’t comfortable flying them.

 

[Saab34]

I have noted that in the USA in which many are hesitant, however many Australian’s seem to not give a toss one bit what they are flying on as long as it’s cheap. I don’t expect Virgin to offer free changes however I think they will cop some media around it when they first launch.

 

[HS-TQE]

I would say a wet lease is less likely, and as of current is technically not permitted under the IASC determination for HND except if the carrier (VA) can convince the IASC that the wet lease is a short-term solution (similar to the past precedence of the Qantas/Ansett wetleases in the past or the current Air NZ wet-lease to WAMOS).

I would think MAX8 ex-CNS is VA's Plan B (taking into consideration VA has notified IASC their original 'concrete' plan is a July start).

This will likely potentially be combined with partial Queensland Government Taxpayer Funding via the Attracting Aviation Investment Fund (AAIF) to offset some of the likely losses from operating the HND service initially. As stated previously a hypothetical CNS-HND would meet the criteria for Premier Anna's taxpayer funding under the criteria as it may/would provide 'Tourism and Jobs for Queenslanders'... "that is good for Queensland!"

 

[jakeseven7]

I have noted that in the USA in which many are hesitant, however many Australian’s seem to not give a toss one bit what they are flying on as long as it’s cheap. I don’t expect Virgin to offer free changes however I think they will cop some media around it when they first launch.

Australians haven’t had the choice of flying a highly controversial aircraft domestically. Who knows what negative PR will be stirred up about the aircraft when Bonza becomes the first brave airline to try it out

 

[Saab34]

Good point forgot about Bonza. However they are a ULCC and price wins most people.

 

[jase05]

Good point forgot about Bonza. However they are a ULCC and price wins most people.

Judging by the loads ex Australia on FJ’s Max’s I don’t think people are too concerned by them

 

[justinbrett]

I don't think VA will have a problem longterm with MAXs, but considering they've put all their eggs in that basket, they can't afford to stuff this up. Even if just 5% refuse to fly on them, that's enough to cause them issues with the competition.

Seems much more sensible to slip them in on a SYD/BNE/MEL rotation, get people used to the type and then gradually expand - rather than launching it with one of the longest narrowbody flights Australia has seen to date, mostly completely over ocean.

If it is a regular domestic config -8, they're going to have to sell tickets pretty cheap to compete with QF/JL/NH, who all fly widebodies.

 

[Must...Fly!]

I think if they really want to keep the slot then the only realistic option is to wet lease. Whether this is worth the inevitable financial cost, who knows. If they are serious about the ANA partnership (and ANA are also serious) then I'm sure they could come to a mutually beneficial arrangement while VA figure out their long term options.

 

[sqrt()]

Are those MH A380s still for sale?

 

[Mattg]

Are those MH A380s still for sale?

Yeah, VA is not going to buy those…

 

[jakeseven7]

Are those MH A380s still for sale?

As if VA2 could afford or fill an A380
They couldn’t even profitably fill a 777 or A330.

 

[serfty]

They couldn’t even profitably fill a 777 or A330.

I believe the transpacs 777's did make some profit towards the end. You are correct about the rest though.

 

[sqrt()]

As if VA2 could afford or fill an A380
They couldn’t even profitably fill a 777 or A330.

MEL-SYD-BNE-HND

Just pick them up on the way.

 

[Digicola]

I believe the transpacs 777's did make some profit towards the end. You are correct about the rest though.

Just a slight add to this. I’ve read consistently that TPAC was profitable. Just how much money was VA burning on HKG and Shorthaul Intl????

 

[HS-TQE]

Just a slight add to this. I’ve read consistently that TPAC was profitable. Just how much money was VA burning on HKG and Shorthaul Intl????

Reportedly the DL partnership was the primary factor why VA's LAX operations stood for so long before the COVID shutdowns and the subsequent VA 1.0 administration.
The DL partnership was also a 'pre-Borghetti' initiative when then-VB CEO Brett Godfrey switched codeshare partners from UA to DL when setting up V Australia. The partnership was subsequently upgraded to a JV under Godfrey with Borghetti renewing that in 2015.

The only parts of VA 1.0 (apart from Velocity) that was making revenue prior to the COVID shutdowns was the mainline 737 operation, FIFO contracts (old Skywest) and reportedly the joint DL/VA TransPac LAX operations.

The red-ink was also coming from the Regional (ATR), TigerAir and most international with the exception of LAX. There were reports that NAN was covering expenses though.