Let's Buy Qantas Shares

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Seems a very fair and important question. I think it should have been answered. I guess two reasons why they didn't. Don't want the competition to know, and if they disclosed the figure they might be under pressure to write them down even further.
 
With the price of fuel still rising Qantas shares have dropped quite a bit.
 
Were always likely to retrace from $6.
AJ coming out saying they needed $s for new planes probably not helping things
 
Qantas says foreign ownership cap could make fleet overhaul harder - Sydney Morning Herald

While the airline has handed down record-high profits in the past two years, chairman Leigh Clifford said the Qantas Sale Act, which caps foreign ownership at 49 per cent of shares, was still holding it back, including in its ability to raise capital.

"We haven't got a particular need at the moment, but at some stage we’re going to have to dramatically renew the fleet," Mr Clifford told Fairfax Media.

"At some stage we’re going to have to replace the [Airbus] 380s ... and [CEO] Alan [Joyce] has talked of the challenge we’ve put out to Airbus and Boeing for long-range aircraft.

"Well, these don’t come cheaply."

Qantas shares have let off some steam after hitting a record high in October 2017 of $6.45. They were trading down at $4.88 at 3pm on Thursday.
 
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Someone thought I should be making frequent flyer miles out of trading shares. Well actually I do. I pay the GST part of the brokerage to the ATO using any of three CCs that still work a treat.
On Qantas points I am now quite a bit less than a million points behind Mrscove. Catching her has been a struggle.
If the price of fuel keeps rising the fuel hedging is the only helpful way to keep really profitable. The remaining 747s will be a hard way to make money even if they have been written down to zero for depreciation.They use too much fuel.
 
I also don't believe QF needs to alter the cap to raise money.
Albeit foreign instos might be disappointed if they can't take up their rights
 
It would be pretty ridiculous for Qantas to do a share issue after recently running a share buy back to get rid of the supposed excess cash they had in the kitty. All the buyback did was run the share price up temporarily and I let my spare ones go.
Mrscove has never sold one of her shares since the original float as she is a true believer.
 
Qantas shares were a really good sell around their AGM. The hard bit was figuring that out.
 
We went to the trouble of attending the Qantas AGM recently.I wasn’t convinced that the head guy had really earned the 20 plus million he received from his deal which was helped by the share buyback.
They are still running 747s that are getting really old now when most airlines have dropped them due to excessive fuel burn.
I heard that staff refer to their A380s as the Hyundai Of The Skys which I guess means lots of annoying things breaking.
Mrscove and one of my sons are still there and have never ever sold a share.
Virgin has just managed to survive but they have been matching Qantas in the domestic market reasonably well in 2017.
 
Let's Sell Qantas Shares?

We bought a number of QF shares back in 2013 ranging in price from 0.99 to 1.45 (average 1.21); with the share price hitting record highs this week it seemed like a good time to take some profits off the table.

Just sold some at 6.97, enough to get back all my investment and a small profit.

Now to decide whether to sit on the remainder or sell them; and at what price?
 
I follow the dicta of a gentleman with the initials 'WB" who advises 'never buy shares in airlines or insurance companies.'

He was correct for QBE, and looks like being correct for QF, VA and even previous golden haired boy Rex.

Purchasing shares does not 'improve' (as in 'make more competitive') QF's uncompetitive salaries, wages and staff entitlements.

Good luck to anyone who does, but the value of a share purchased at $1 can in a worst case go to nothing.

I am with WB and your good self. Just need to see history of the industry poor performance. How would you like to have a slice of Virgin Australia.
 
Let's Sell Qantas Shares?

Now to decide whether to sit on the remainder or sell them; and at what price?
Unless they do another compulsory buyback.
Can you say no to that?
Can they sell your/my unmarketable share holdings?
I was going to be supporting QF till my last days, was planning to keep buying bits, that was when all was good with the red roo.
Then, it all went downhill.
My 10 shares worth, got sold off, as I am considered a holder of "unmarketable shares", so they reduced my holdings from 165 to 155.
Was going to, or planning to (at that time), use my tax refunds each year, in the good old days to keep buying QF shares.
 
Been there and got my average under a dollar with 2 buys. Should be ok but if they halve then that could hurt.
Found it. I was thinking of this post when QF shares hit something above $6 recently. Good deal for those who got in at $1 if still holding them. 😀
 
Let's Sell Qantas Shares?

We bought a number of QF shares back in 2013 ranging in price from 0.99 to 1.45 (average 1.21); with the share price hitting record highs this week it seemed like a good time to take some profits off the table.

Just sold some at 6.97, enough to get back all my investment and a small profit.

Now to decide whether to sit on the remainder or sell them; and at what price?


I am not a professional share trader - actually I am probably the most opposite thing there can be. So my opinion is probably worthless. But I comment this: (in random order)

1.- Qantas has had a stellar rise in share value. Despite all the backlash here on AFF, Qantas has managed to make a fair turn-around over the past few years.

2.- Despite many here on AFF hating AJ, he has managed QF to attain this increase in share price.

3.- There are ponderings, perhaps unfair, or perhaps very real, that AJ is guided by his own personal interest in short term share price and the windfalls this has brought him. In particular I note the ageing fleet - but maybe this is very sound airline management? There are so many airlines that think that fleet age and new product are king, no matter what cost.... That must really be an expensive way to compete??

4.- This is not a dot-com thing - there are real barriers to future share increases. IMHO airlines are always a dodgy area to invest in - too many non-core financial factors - and internationally QF have to compete with all those political things (subsidizing, etc) And domestically, I think they have flogged Virgin as much as our society will allow.

5.- A very specific and short term event will be the success or otherwise in Project Sunrise. If it is a success, I foresee that QF will maintain its share price and market existence. If it gets continually delayed or is a failure, a major reason for hope in QF's longevity in the international market will, in my very humble opinion, vanish.

6.- QF makes a lot of money out of domestic and Loyalty. I think they have probably reached, or are at least close, to the zenith of the Loyalty game. As for domestic, they already charge an absolute major margin for this semi-duopoly. Virgin also benefits from this. But I think there is no further margin. No real big growth in profitability.

So in summary I think QF have managed an amazing success story these past years, but I see no way that it will meaningfully grow even better. So sell your shares!! :)

In a wildly imprecise environment, I predict that with a successful Project Sunrise announcement, shares could go up another 50 cents. But no further. In absence of same I predict a slow and tortuous erosion - maybe about a buck a year in share value.

Anyway, maybe food for thought? Even if that thought is that I am an idiot :)
 
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