Iran crisis - implications for Middle East air traffic

[amaroo]

Well, that's what the Guardian has to say to it:
False claims spread online after Iran missile attack on Iraqi airbases

False claims spread online after Iran missile attack on Iraqi airbases

That Guardian article actually quotes Iranian State Television sprouting the same numbers as the article I posted.

Here's another direct from the beast - The Mehr News Agency is an Iranian news agency headquartered in Tehran, owned by the Islamic Ideology Dissemination Organization

Over 80 killed in IRGC’s missile strikes on US airbases in Iraq: Informed source

TEHRAN, Jan. 08 (MNA) – An informed source at the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps said over 80 American terrorist troops were killed and some 200 wounded in the IRGC’s missile strikes on the US airbase of Ain al-Assad in Anbar province in western Iraq.

en.mehrnews.com

 

[Pushka]

In reality there are no reliable sources anymore.

 

[amaroo]

In reality there are no reliable sources anymore.

Fake news Who would've thought....

 

[Danger]

If 80 US troops had been killed in an Iranian attack, the US would have countered with an extraordinary response, possibly even invoking Article 5 of NATO, bringing the world to the precipice of a significant military confrontation not seen for some time.

 

[Franky]

If 80 US troops had been killed in an Iranian attack, the US would have countered with an extraordinary response, possibly even invoking Article 5 of NATO, bringing the world to the precipice of a significant military confrontation not seen for some time.

I agree in part, but Trump has made it plain that they have 52 targets selected and I would expect that these would be picked off by guided weapons. Offensive weapons sites and nuclear facilities are most probably on top of the list. No need for any more boots on the ground.

 

[DC3]

... False claims spread online after Iran missile attack on Iraqi airbases

... that would be fake news?

 

[drron]

Other reports are that Iran told Iraq what bases would be attacked and the Iraquis then told the US.Fits with this being revenge for domestic consumption purposes so fits with the Iranians saying 80 Americans died.

 

[Berlin]

Now with the recent disaster being clearer (indeed most likely "accidentally" shut off over Iran), what does this make of air routes through the region? Most airlines now avoid Iran but Iraq looks busier than ever instead and Qatar still happily crosses into Iran.

Would you feel comfortable booking a flight with any of the Middle Eastern carriers at the moment? Specifically Qatar who essentially have no choice to find new routes towards Europe/US if things heat up further again?

I'm personally very hesitant, as much as like to fly both QR and EK. And the way it looks at the moment, things can change to the better or worse if one books a flight for in a couple of months time. I guess it has to do with the general amount of risk one is to take. I must admit that the right deal could probably sway me which is a very very silly attitude if you think more about it. Curious to hear from others on here!

 

[UP4014]

You

I would imagine that if the US were actively tracking Soleimani, they would also know exactly which strategic targets to hit all at the same time to virtually disable the threat of Iran firing on global air traffic. It's a big country, but with assets essentially surrounding them East - South - West I can't see an issue with the US/allies taking out the threat together. Hopefully Trump isn't stupid enough to send troops on the ground.

Hopefully they can neutralise the situation by May, as that's when I'll be trying out Qatar.

I see there's still a lot of traffic over Iran right now, mostly smaller players, but Emirates just flew over them on the way to YYZ and Malaysian is passing by the top. Lots of Turkish and Qatar too.

You’d think Malaysian would be taking it wide of the area.

What happened to their new risk management regime.

 

[samh004]

You’d think Malaysian would be taking it wide of the area.

This was virtually as the directive was issued, they couldn't have altered course that quickly.

Would you feel comfortable booking a flight with any of the Middle Eastern carriers at the moment? Specifically Qatar who essentially have no choice to find new routes towards Europe/US if things heat up further again?

I would imagine that EK is still flying directly over Iran to get to Canada, as they were at the start of this thread?

 

[Berlin]

This was virtually as the directive was issued, they couldn't have altered course that quickly.


I would imagine that EK is still flying directly over Iran to get to Canada, as they were at the start of this thread?

Not as far as I can see- EK Dubai to Toronto at least had been routed via Irak over the last two days according to Flightradar as have most (or all?) flights from Dubai to the US.

Air Canada on the same route is re-routing even further afield via Saudi airspace.