Completely random. If you're booking a JASA you can always cancel over the phone to get a full points plus money refund later and rebook. Don't count on getting one though. Some get three a year while others get none over ten years. I did get mine when I had enough flights booked and paid that got me close to getting gold however.
Not quite right, the main one is always just after Easter, I predicated the day correctly this year its that regular! Then there is often another different campaign aimed at helping those requal in the last three months of THEIR membership year. Apart from that its random or when they need to promote a new route or operation, like the A380 going to HKG. Can you be sure you will get one, no, but booking flights in the 4th last month of the year for thravel in the last three is not advised, just in case.....!
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It's bizarro really. I received one in April with a reminder in May, valid for bookings/travel prior to 30th June - didn't really need it and would have been nice to be able to gift it to somebody. So while the timing may not be random, maybe the individuals to whom it is offered are a bit more random than not (my year ended prior to April).
Thats the post Easter special, agree its random in targeting and last year was followed by the Oct campaign to what seemed to be the same targets.