Chance of award upgrade?

[Expon]

HI,


Im flying ML-SFO in June this year and I'm about to book my ticket. I loathe to fly long distance economy but for the cost I can put up with it. However I was deciding whether to book a business class ticket on points and spend 192 000 and pay the taxes or buy an economy ticket and use 72 000 to upgrade to business. This seems a better use of the points as the taxes are nearly 20% of the ticket. Problem is if I book business on points im 'secured' the seat. However on an upgrade I wont know if I have it until were ready to depart.

Does anyone know from experience typically how full the flights are to SFO or LAX from ML? I was thinking QF25 via Aukland would have less people on it but takes a few hrs longer. Im guessing flying on a Tues/Wed would increase my chances, but its summer.

 

[littl_flier]

The problem with an Award flight is that you're not actually guaranteed a seat and you don't find out until less than 24 hours before hand. If you don't mind the risk, then it may be a better alternative but the only way to guarantee the Business Class seat is to book it.

 

[serfty]

The problem with an Award flight is that you're not actually guaranteed a seat and you don't find out until less than 24 hours before hand. If you don't mind the risk, then it may be a better alternative but the only way to guarantee the Business Class seat is to book it.

Maybe a re-phrasal to make this clear (removing any mixups):

The problem with Award flight Upgrades is that you're not actually guaranteed a Business Class seat and you don't find out until less than 24 hours before hand. If you don't mind the risk, then it may be a better alternative but the only way to guarantee the Business Class seat is to book it.

 

[opusman]

Never book a class you're not prepared to travel in If you don't mind flying economy then go for it, but if (like me) you wouldn't be able to stand it then I would say book business and spend the points (if you can actually get a seat that is.)

 

[littl_flier]

Maybe a re-phrasal to make this clear (removing any mixups):

Thanks Serfty, it was a terrible explanation and I must've been smoking something. Thanks!

I should add too that upgrades are processed in an order of CL, WP, SG, PS and NB and within each catagory, the amount of time between requesting the upgrade and the departure date is taken into account.