Australian Housing Affordability Discussion

[CaptJCool]

This is the key point. Forget superannuation. Home ownership is a much better savings mechanism.

And so says the super expert Daryl Dixon
https://www.dixon.com.au/news/news-article/14-08-16/age-pension-may-beat-1m-in-super

 

[drron]

And Rudd/Gillard were in power from 2007 ie 5.5 years before Ford made it's decision.What did they do.
But the problem of being young you did not experience the volatility of the car market in the latter half of last century.Tariffs on imported vehicles peaked at 57.5% in 1984.Then Senator John Button introduced his Button Plan in 1998 with a program of reducing tariffs.his plan called for a reduction to 15% in December 2000.This plan was followed by the Howard government and the tariff duly fell to 15% at that time.The new plan called for a reduction in tariff to 10% on 1/1/2005 and 5% on 1/1/2010.The car makers knew of this plan well before the Thailand free trade agreement.
So from 2005-2010 the thais had a 10% advantage,from 2010 only a 5% advantage.
Moreover the bulk of imports from Thailand are Utes and SUVs.From 2001 these had a duty of 5%.That is again before the Thailand free trade agreement.

http://www.aph.gov.au/sitecore/cont...rary/Publications_Archive/CIB/CIB9697/97cib22

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/Previousproducts/1301.0Feature Article252005

 

[Moody]

Car manufacturing had been a lame horse for decades, and was never going to withstand the pressures of a distorted global economy. Abbott, Hockey and crew saw Holden, Ford et al as perpetually holding their hands out on behalf of their shareholders and workers. They went for the shotgun and the closures inevitably followed.

That would all be fine if the conservatives had a plan to replace the direct and indirect jobs lost with something else. Instead we just get waffle. Let me paraphrase ...

"It's never been a more exciting time to be an out-of-work former employee of an industry with a 90-year history"

 

[cove]

Because Australia has long service leave, annual leave loading, 4 weeks annual leave, higher hourly rates, sick notes from liberal medicos and a 38 hour working week manufacturing cars in Australia without a fully robotic manufacturing line would never succeed.
It is sad to see the industry go the way of the dodo but propping car manufacturing with grants had limited value.
Once the contamination on these sites is remedied (if any) they may become sites for developers to build high rise apartments.

 

[Jeffrey O'Neill]

Once the contamination on these sites is remedied (if any) they may become sites for developers to build high rise apartments.

If you'd told me Australia could export tens of thousands of apartments ten years ago I'd have said you were crazy

But with true aussie grit and determination we've worked out how to export dog box apartments to asian, mostly chinese, investors. they come complete with highly flammable cladding to ensure ease of demolition as they rapidly deteriorate and become unlivable.

it disgusts me how we've sold the future of millenials and those who come after them for a quick buck.

 

[JohnK]

We need to build more apartments that are built by foreign companies and exclusively sold in Hong Kong and Shanghai.

 

[whatmeworry]

Because Australia has long service leave, annual leave loading, 4 weeks annual leave, higher hourly rates, sick notes from liberal medicos and a 38 hour working week manufacturing cars in Australia without a fully robotic manufacturing line would never succeed.
It is sad to see the industry go the way of the dodo but propping car manufacturing with grants had limited value.
Once the contamination on these sites is remedied (if any) they may become sites for developers to build high rise apartments.

The Australian government was subsidising the car industry $20 per capita, against about $100 per capita in Germany and the US. Every nation that builds cars subsidises their industries.

Once the industry is shut down, just wait and see the multiplier effect it will have on the economy.

One of my friends works on the back end at Toyota/Lexus was asked whether the workers deserved their wages. He said they worked long and hard in monotonous conditions and $$$ was one of the main reasons that kept worker turnover low and thus productivity high.

 

[drron]

Of course if you use subsidy per vehicle produced the figures are just slightly different.
Australia- $US1885 per vehicle, compared with Sweden ($US297), Germany ($US206) and the US ($US166). In other words, Australia has the highest rate of budgetary assistance of the seven first-world countries listed.
Per vehicle subsidy is much more relevant than per capita.

 

[Jeffrey O'Neill]

Re: The totally off-topic thread

the side of the population ponzi the Laberals and greens never want to talk about

 

[UP4014]

Because Australia has long service leave, annual leave loading, 4 weeks annual leave, higher hourly rates, sick notes from liberal medicos and a 38 hour working week manufacturing cars in Australia without a fully robotic manufacturing line would never succeed.
It is sad to see the industry go the way of the dodo but propping car manufacturing with grants had limited value.
Once the contamination on these sites is remedied (if any) they may become sites for developers to build high rise apartments.

I was happy with tax money going into building cars, there was a flow on effect in manufacturing. It's not just the people on the production line who won't have a job now. The subsidy per vehicle wasn't that much relative to the benefit.

 

[UP4014]

Of course if you use subsidy per vehicle produced the figures are just slightly different.
Australia- $US1885 per vehicle, compared with Sweden ($US297), Germany ($US206) and the US ($US166). In other words, Australia has the highest rate of budgetary assistance of the seven first-world countries listed.
Per vehicle subsidy is much more relevant than per capita.

ddron, I disagree with with your numbers, where did they originate?

FactCheck: do other countries subsidise their car industry more than we do?

Matt

 

[cove]

Recent quality of Holden cars has us turned off after a series of manufacturing failures and remedies.
Perth real estate prices are slipping but so are job opportunities in Western Australia. It will probably happen across Australia as the major banks review their lending deposits. This has been happening on apartments around Australia.
I saw a mortgagee home sale in Karratha go for $205,000 down from a million dollars.
Dropping residential rentals are a first sign of prices getting ready to fall based on what is happening in Perth.

 

[TomVexille]

I hope the market correction can hold off 4 weeks!

I'm selling the house I live in. Anyone want to buy it? A few mil should do it

We had the first open today (a bit weird on a Sunday due to the GF. The remainder will be Thur/Sat until auction day).

I'm hopeful that we are close to the "top" of the market. It was hot last Spring and we have seen some good prices in my area this year, but there are fewer houses on the market this Spring. With any luck there are still a few cashed up (or leveraged up) buyers out there.

Yes, but I don't have a few mil

 

[cove]

TV the first million is the hardest.

 

[TomVexille]

TV the first million is the hardest.

I'm trying. Low wages while studying don't help.

 

[drron]

ddron, I disagree with with your numbers, where did they originate?

FactCheck: do other countries subsidise their car industry more than we do?

Matt

My numbers are taken from the Productivity commission report just as the conversations numbers were.They made a few howlers as they often did.
So if you disagree with my numbers then you disagree with the article you quote.

 

[Jeffrey O'Neill]

I was happy with tax money going into building cars, there was a flow on effect in manufacturing. It's not just the people on the production line who won't have a job now. The subsidy per vehicle wasn't that much relative to the benefit.

The issue I have is the decision was made when the AUD was artificially high. Now it's back to a more normal level, and quite likely will continue to fall as the ToT back to historical levels, we're now faced with importing cars at a higher price.

I do wonder if the car manufacturers weren't closing if the Govt would have been so reckless in their submarine decision to try and prop up a few senate seats in SA??

I suppose a recession is 1 way to bring housing back to affordable levels, well as long as the govt stops being such wimps in applying the law on foreign purchasers. ATO has gone so quiet since the big announcements earlier int eh year. still waiting for a list of prosecutions for illegal purchases or holdings not sold when they should have been.

why is it so hard to apply the law?

 

[UP4014]

My numbers are taken from the Productivity commission report just as the conversations numbers were.They made a few howlers as they often did.
So if you disagree with my numbers then you disagree with the article you quote.

https://www.ppbadvisory.com/uploads/a381-00464INS-Auto-Insight-May-2013.pdf

 

[drron]

Nocookies | The Australian

Google the title if you come up against the paywall.
Lies,damed lies and car industry statistics.

 

[Jeffrey O'Neill]

something to think about

The ABS and APRA worked successfully with lenders to ensure that, in the future, all loans to first home buyers are reported, regardless of whether or not they received a First Home Owner Grant. As a result, from August 2016, the number of first home buyers will no longer require adjustment as most lenders will be reporting correctly.
In the process of working with lenders, corrected historical data has been reported by some lenders and this improved data has been used to re-estimate the first home buyer statistics back to October 2012. This has resulted in revisions to the number of first home buyers for the period October 2012 to July 2016. These revisions impact on estimates for the number of first home buyers, the first home buyer ratio and the average loan size for first home buyers.
While the revised estimates show fewer first home buyers than previously reported over the period October 2012 to July 2016, the month to month movements are broadly consistent with the previously published series (see Graph 1). For the most recent month (i.e. July 2016) the number of first home buyers in Australia has been revised down by 465 from 7,586 to 7,121.



the first canary in the economic coal mine is auto loan delinquency



and where the auto loans lead, you can be sure mortgage delinquencies are prob 12ish months behind