Are the days of Points collecting over?

[cove]

Logged on to Points Guy in the US to work thru our options. With my family doing trips for the World Cup and the 2028 Olympics I am thinking of getting a premium US card with sub cards for the family members.

 

[RB001]

1928 Olympics

Off to Amsterdam in your time machine?

https://www.olympics.com/en/olympic-games/amsterdam-1928

 

[SYD]

Off to Amsterdam in your time machine?

https://www.olympics.com/en/olympic-games/amsterdam-1928

That’ll burn a few points but did they appreciate in the process????

 

[SOPOOR]

Only in the worst possible scenario does 100k-120k points cost $120k to $240k plus surcharges.

This weeks Woollies gift card offer sees 100k QFF cost a tick under $1,200. And that's not an especially good deal but you do end up with $20,000 of visa cards to pay bills that wouldn't normally earn points. There may or may not be a fee to use the visa cards.

Sadly, as you've described, the credit card points are becoming more and more expensive to earn and convert. That's only getting worse with the impending changes in surcharge rules. Then the issues of award seat availability, scarcity really, and co-payments materialise.

To be honest I can't tell if that's the worst case scenario, but definitely the higher redemptions are better value, eg J long haul vs Y domestic

Currently for the past few year I buy about $1000 per week on gift cards promos, at both supermarkets, the deal works without the credit card points, so the points to me are a bonus and free. (I used to value points to buy at $0.006 for qff/velocity/kris which were fairly available back then)

A couple of years ago, the deals were better and I could make a tiny profit on each weekly purchase, those were good days!

I'm not an economics expert but I suspect the same figure type of deals from 5+ years ago will never come back.

If you have a business that you can put through millions of purchases and pocket the points, then that would be amazing.
Ive even thought about starting a business with in mind being. Able to pay for supplies on credit card

 

[cove]

2028 Summer Olympics are back in Los Angeles…..I fixed that 1928 entry. …..jet lag is my explanation.

Qantas points have been devalued so we are not chasing them now.

 

[VPS]

But now there is a surcharge on virtually every merchant, the devaluations have hit. I used to have cents per point value in would target, these days that target is virtually impossible.

I've spent over $4k this month on my Amex and not a single surcharge if you shop wisely

 

[SOPOOR]

I've spent over $4k this month on my Amex and not a single surcharge if you shop wisely

What sort of places have no amex surcharge for you? I dont have one any more, however the places that I can think of are supermarkets, and PayPal?
Given that it used to be 2pts per $1 (qff/velocity etc) then 1 pt, and now I believe its 0.67 or 0.5 unless you have platinum charge/centurion

 

[Human]

I've spent over $4k this month on my Amex and not a single surcharge if you shop wisely

As a general rule, more and more smaller shops have surcharges, but the bigger chains (including supermarkets, petrol stations, department stores, and many hotels and utilities) don’t have surcharges.

What this looks like for me is that even though probably half of the merchants I buy from have small surcharges, the majority of my SPENDING (groceries, petrol etc) does not because invariably my larger purchases are surcharge free.

 

[VPS]

What sort of places have no amex surcharge for you? I dont have one any more, however the places that I can think of are supermarkets, and PayPal?
Given that it used to be 2pts per $1 (qff/velocity etc) then 1 pt, and now I believe its 0.67 or 0.5 unless you have platinum charge/centurion

Supermarkets, petrol, some utilities that I pay using Paypal, Chemist Warehouse, my Physio, Telstra, Pub, Didi and uber, newspaper subscription, fruit and veg shop etc

 

[burmans]

Now I churn cards and keep them for a little while because I have no other option

Well we always have options, eg get out of the points game completely. But it seems like despite your posts that you are quitting you really aren’t quite for now.

 

[burmans]

Many, many, many programs have gone that way.

More generally, this is what has happened to the points space for Australians just this year:

Points Redemptions
- Devaluation of Qantas points (classic and classic plus)
- Devaluation of Singapore points
- Devaluation of Velocity points
- Reduction in Emirates flights from Qantas points redemptions
- Reduction in United flights from Velocity points redemptions

Points Earning
- Devaluation of Amex points
- Decrease in earn rate of Westpac points
- 18-24 month mandatory wait time on all major bank credit card bonuses
- Commbank eliminating most transfer partners
- Reserve Bank announces plans to cut interchange rates, which will lead to a further reduction in points earn

As I've said throughout this thread, everyone has a breaking point. And I expect more and more people to hit their point in the future, especially if the RBA changes come into effect.

Bring it on I say, if you want to quit, then just do it. And there will be some who continue to find pockets of value.

 

[SOPOOR]

Well we always have options, eg get out of the points game completely. But it seems like despite your posts that you are quitting you really aren’t quite for now.

True, I'm definitely not 100% out of it...devastated as I dont do anywhere near as much as I used to...

 

[Human]

Apologies if this has already been said but I think it’s a relevant point. My last 3 overseas trips have all been this year, and all booked (with relatively little difficulty, all things considered) with points. But I have EITHER been flying solo, or flying Economy.

Both of those things make finding reward seats exponentially easier.

Certainly the days of families using points to fly in premium cabins are coming to an end, and as we all know, it’s getting harder and harder for couples as well.

But flying solo and/or flying economy is still really not a problem, at least in my experience.

 

[burmans]

Well my kids have left home so definitely not sponsoring their travel much. But not sure my wife would be so happy to be ditched.

Have been doing some solo travel as I am retired and wife is not. Have still managed to find available flights for both of us for that 4 weeks of annual leave but agree it’s easier for just one.

Personally I’d be very happy if some of the less dedicated quit the FF game. For me the downside occurred when this was spruiked on social media. If the message now is that it’s all too hard I think the pendulum may swing back for those prepared to put in a bit more work!

 

[nickfromeastryde]

Good perspective.

Even for the people that love the hunt of finding award seats, they will have a breaking point where all the joy has been sapped out of the points game.

My guess would be a lot more people are going to hit that breaking point as the devaluations mounts and mount.

I haven't ever hit my breaking point researching, searching and booking!! I actually enjoy doing it.

I have however hit breaking point over the last couple of OWA's when my confirmed and ticketed trips have had flights changed or removed by partner airlines. Luckily I think, Qantas has made one real "enhancement" in the last few years by setting up the 'rewardsticketingescalations' email process that have managed to fix those issues.