Tokyo Haneda slot - how will Virgin Operate it?

[Must...Fly!]

I think they accept that the first month of this is a complete wash, but they've got basically no choice. Suspect the will be a fair bit of fanfare when the Max turns up on the route. They probably don't want to draw too much attention to the substandard variant of an already (relatively) substandard offering. Its not like the prices are even terribly attractive just to put bums on seats.

Connections to Southern cities have to improve as well. Last time I look at a booking it was a6 hour layover to connect to MEL off the early morning arrival 🫨

 

[jase05]

Connections to Southern cities have to improve as well. Last time I look at a booking it was a6 hour layover to connect to MEL off the early morning arrival 🫨

Well it landed nearly 2hrs late this morning so only a 4hr layover

 

[randompunter]

I think they accept that the first month of this is a complete wash, but they've got basically no choice. Suspect the will be a fair bit of fanfare when the Max turns up on the route. They probably don't want to draw too much attention to the substandard variant of an already (relatively) substandard offering. Its not like the prices are even terribly attractive just to put bums on seats.

Connections to Southern cities have to improve as well. Last time I look at a booking it was a6 hour layover to connect to MEL off the early morning arrival 🫨

Yep long layovers with no VA lounge in CNS

 

[justinbrett]

I think they accept that the first month of this is a complete wash, but they've got basically no choice.

Which would make sense if they were selling out on the 737-700 meaning the only vacant seats are ones that have been blocked.

If they have unsold seats on the 737-700, I can't see why they wouldn't also have unsold seats on the 737-8.

The pain will last much longer than a month if they don't fix something. I would have thought a June school holidays launch would have had a much stronger launch.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Which would make sense if they were selling out on the 737-700 meaning the only vacant seats are ones that have been blocked.

If they have unsold seats on the 737-700, I can't see why they wouldn't also have unsold seats on the 737-8.

The pain will last much longer than a month if they don't fix something. I would have thought a June school holidays launch would have had a much stronger launch.

They still haven't got direct online bookings enabled for bookings originating in Japan. I think that somewhat proves how they're treating the launch, at this stage.

 

[justinbrett]

They still haven't got direct online bookings enabled for bookings originating in Japan. I think that somewhat proves how they're treating the launch, at this stage.

I don't know if I'd be hanging my hat on ex-Japan saving the route as a foreign carrier with limited recognition, going against a carrier operating a widebody that has a local subsidiary and thus brand recognition. Which itself might explain VA's tardiness to getting ex-Japan set up.

 

[Must...Fly!]

I don't know if I'd be hanging my hat on ex-Japan saving the route as a foreign carrier with limited recognition, going against a carrier operating a widebody that has a local subsidiary and thus brand recognition. Which itself might explain VA's tardiness to getting ex-Japan set up.

I don't think they're hanging a hat on it, there's a lot of competition including Jetstar. But they'll certainly need some traffic from Japan to make it work, and I don't think they have a product worth advertising at the moment.

 

[Digicola]

They still haven't got direct online bookings enabled for bookings originating in Japan. I think that somewhat proves how they're treating the launch, at this stage.

I thought this was on purpose, letting NH and travel agents do the lifting. Basically a half coughd attempt at getting HND up and running.

 

[jrfsp]

Looks like ANA only sells the VA flight if terminating in CNS, ex HND flights to other cities only show via SYD /connections on their own SYD flight.

 

[AustraliaPoochie]

99% it will go the way that VA1 went with the HKG routing, if not for the QLD govt's financial backing.
Will be a sad set of affairs then.
What are the loadings of pax so far on the inaugural flight, guess that would be hard to tell without someone on here doing that flight.
There are only a certain number of pax who would fly that particular route, on a regular basis, and they do need a lot of pax rev to make it feasible.
As for running a single flight, int speaking, it would be at least several hundred thou $, at the least.

 

[Digicola]

99% it will go the way that VA1 went with the HKG routing, if not for the QLD govt's financial backing.
Will be a sad set of affairs then.
What are the loadings of pax so far on the inaugural flight, guess that would be hard to tell without someone on here doing that flight.
There are only a certain number of pax who would fly that particular route, on a regular basis, and they do need a lot of pax rev to make it feasible.
As for running a single flight, int speaking, it would be at least several hundred thou $, at the least.

Was reading on another forum that the -700 can only go out with 70-80 pax. Definitely a lowkey launch and hopefully once the MAX comes along so will the fanfare. I still doubt filling a 737-8 will be a problem, margins might end up being thin especially if they do $699/$799 promos often enough but no way is this comparable to HKG where they were offering an all inclusive economy class on a bigger plane with at times even lower prices on an even longer flight.

If we consider the NH/VA partnership isn’t completely active yet then it’s normal NH will prioritise their own metal, especially since they’ve recently gone double daily to SYD and thats a lot of capacity to backfill. The fact they currently only sell the highest fare buckets on the CNS flight with NH code gives a bit of credence to this.

 

[randompunter]

Had a few recent chats with normies asking for advice about trips to Japan and this VA option. For your average non-FF there is typically very little knowledge (and care factor?) about aircraft types and HND vs NRT. For them it probably comes more down to price and/or convenience of direct routes but there may be some keen to use Velocity points (although I would tell them to redeem on NH if/when that becomes possible).

 

[justinbrett]

Was reading on another forum that the -700 can only go out with 70-80 pax. Definitely a lowkey launch and hopefully once the MAX comes along so will the fanfare. I still doubt filling a 737-8 will be a problem, margins might end up being thin especially if they do $699/$799 promos often enough but no way is this comparable to HKG where they were offering an all inclusive economy class on a bigger plane with at times even lower prices on an even longer flight.

If we consider the NH/VA partnership isn’t completely active yet then it’s normal NH will prioritise their own metal, especially since they’ve recently gone double daily to SYD and thats a lot of capacity to backfill. The fact they currently only sell the highest fare buckets on the CNS flight with NH code gives a bit of credence to this.

Yeah, except there are unsold seats on the 737-700, not just blocked. If it is only 70-80 seats and you can't even sell that many, you've got issues when the -8 arrives.

 

[Saab34]

Things could be different in a year or two. For all we know Qatar could buy into the airline, and provide a few widebodies.

 

[justinbrett]

Things could be different in a year or two. For all we know Qatar could buy into the airline, and provide a few widebodies.

QR can't significantly buy into VAi due to foreign ownership restrictions.

 

[HS-TQE]

QR are limited to 49% in Australian carriers with international rights (in this case VAi).

 

[MooTime]

99% it will go the way that VA1 went with the HKG routing, if not for the QLD govt's financial backing.
Will be a sad set of affairs then.
What are the loadings of pax so far on the inaugural flight, guess that would be hard to tell without someone on here doing that flight.
There are only a certain number of pax who would fly that particular route, on a regular basis, and they do need a lot of pax rev to make it feasible.
As for running a single flight, int speaking, it would be at least several hundred thou $, at the least.

If you refer back to Matt's post #1,180 the article give s a cost of flight, with SYD-DPS costing ~$40k at 6hr 30mins. (737)
So CNS-HND 7hr 45mins, let's say ~$50k, lot less than your "several hundred thou" call.
with say 70revenue pax, that's still ~$715 to break even.

With 737-8 MAX cost of flight, more fuel efficient would be closer to $40k & no restriction on 70 pax so becomes very feasible, pending getting bums on seats of course.

The Cost of Operating a Commercial Flight

Ever wondered how much it costs a commercial airline to operate a flight?

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

 

[Saab34]

The -700s lease costs wouldn’t be much, they are not far off being scrapped. MAX lease costs on the other hand..

 

[dajop]

QR can't significantly buy into VAi due to foreign ownership restrictions.

QR are limited to 49% in Australian carriers with international rights (in this case VAi).

Didn’t stop VA1 with majority foreign ownership. IIRC a 51% Australian owned shelf company, VAI operated the international services. Like AN before it.

 

[Harrison_133]

The -700s lease costs wouldn’t be much, they are not far off being scrapped. MAX lease costs on the other hand..

VBY and VBZ are owned outright by Virgin.