Question What will QF International look like in 5 years?

Discussion in 'Open Discussion' started by juddles, Dec 2, 2018.

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  1. juddles

    juddles Established Member

    Aug 2, 2011
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    Hi all,

    the thread title explains what I am contemplating at the moment. I think about this both due to curiosity about our "national flag carrier", but also for personal reasons, as I am LTG and forever toying with the idea of jumping ship.

    This is solely about QFi - domestic and jetstar are not in my care-factor envelope.

    The way I see it (and I am by no means an expert - not even close), I perceive that QFi is being led on a path that involves great long-term planning. The first step was to cut as many non-profitable routes as possible. That is done. The second part was to foster profitable partnerships, especially Emirates. With codeshares they have been able to keep offerring QF tickets despite reductions and changes in routes.

    But where I see them heading, very specifically, is to a be a leader in the new concept of ultra-long haul point-to-point routes. I have no doubt that within but a couple of years the aircraft will be available, and I think QFi will find its niche as a full-service, ultra-long-haul specialist.

    Qantas has always suffered from two big problems - we (as in Australia) are a small market in global terms, and we are so far away from everywhere. I am not a QF shareholder, but if I was, I would be very happy with what is slowly happening.

    A big prediction I want to make is that QFi will again become a Boeing-dominated airline. The 787 I think will be one of the most successful long-haul aircraft in history. But I am also sure that for the new era of ultra-long-haul, new versions of the 777 will become the standard for at least the next ten or twenty years.

    QFi will morph into a first-rate, premium cabin heavy, point-to-point specialist. They will ride nationalism and FF program internally, they will use their safety history everywhere, and they will avoid at all costs any route that is not profitable.

    There will be interesting times ahead in the QF/Emirates relationship. Emirates is built on a "one-stop from anywhere to anywhere" concept, and with codeshares QF is riding the investment EK has made, but I see that as merely QFi "using them" in this interim period. Qantas knows that soon the aircraft will be available to delete that "one-stop".

    Beyond the next ten years, I think that globally the new model will reach the apex, the ideal, that was inevitable. Point-to-point. Zero stopovers. The only unknown will be how to balance the smaller routes.

    Thoughts?
     

  2. moa999

    moa999 Senior Member

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    #2 moa999, Dec 2, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2018
    I tend to agree Qantas's future is one stop and high service, essentially targeting routes where it will have limited competition.

    It simply can't compete with the hubs and Chinese and (yet to really impact) Indian and Indonesian carriers will continue to grow at a quick rate and have substantially lower cost bases.

    For the same reasoms Jetsar Intl is in a tough position.

    That said I'd far prefer to be in Qantas's position to Singapore, Malaysian or Cathay. I think there will be struggles in the AsiaPac region
     
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  3. juddles

    juddles Established Member

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    Qantas will never be able to compete with much of the airline world on strictly cost terms - planes, fuel, and to an extent maintenance, can be brought roughly into line. But Qf will always have a much higher staff cost.
     
  4. kpc

    kpc Senior Member

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    #4 kpc, Dec 2, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2018
    QF will fly niche high profitable routes e.g. Syd- Lhr and Syd-Jfk non stop. I mean isn't it ridiculous that Lhr is its only European port?! When the A380s are retired, F class will be gone. Qf will block all foreign competition for its niche routes. I would kill for Syd-Lax on Sq! I too am QF LT Gold....the only reason I maintain QF Plat is award seat release and F lounge access. When the current lot of long term FAs retire, maybe they can attract FAs who are interested in good service delivery?! Oh, Qf services bet Syd and Mel will be limited as there is a fast train bet the 2 cities...ok dreaming now!
     
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  5. moa999

    moa999 Senior Member

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    Australia is too big for fast train.

    It works in Europe for distances up to about 400km only, but everyone would still fly London-Frankfurt for example.

    Connecting Wollongong, Canberra, Sydney, Central Coast and Newcastle by VFT would work though
     
    • Agree Agree x 3
  6. MEL_Traveller

    MEL_Traveller Enthusiast

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    But Australia is in the G20 - high wages and lots of money for people to spend on travel. Other airlines are flying quadruple daily services to MEL/SYD (SQ and CX), so there's a market there. Chinese carriers have huge numbers of flights. Why isn't Qantas matching those? IMO QF just doesn't understand the Asian (Chinese) market. Slippers cost 10c a pair, but QF won't provide them when other Chinese carriers do. A first class passenger ex HKG on my flight was told they don't carry Chinese language newspapers. A $4000K fare but can't provide a $1 newspaper? Angled beds to PEK when other carriers are flying full flats.

    Yet we pay a huge 'Australia tax' on our airfares here. Disproportionately high. (Although we also pay those on foreign carriers ex AU too.)

    Individual staff costs might be high, but QF has far fewer cabin crew than their counterparts per plane, which = fewer hotel rooms, fewer per diem costs, fewer on-costs. And they source cheap labour from Thailand and the UK. For the handful of flight they actually do run, it would be interesting to see their staff costs on a 'per flight' basis compared to their counterparts, and then compare that as a percentage of the flight cost. (As an example EK's basic crew package comes in at around AUD43000 per year tax free, plus accommodation and overnight allowances: source https://www.paddleyourownkanoo.com/2017/04/24/emirates-cabin-crew-salary-and-benefits-2017/)

    What will QF look like in 5 years? I dunno. I can't see the point of the alliance with oneworld though. It seems to be an alliance in all but name only... points earning is not consistent across the alliance (some business class tickets only earn at economy rates for example), baggage is no longer through-checked between the alliance if separate tickets, 'premium lounges' are 'carved out' to stop access, boarding passes still can't always be issued for end-to-end travel. What's the point?
     
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  7. kelvedon

    kelvedon Active Member

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    A planned direct service for London-Cologne/Frankfurt have been shelved by DB, but with Frankfurt being a
    4 1/2 hour journey, I would take the train for its city centre arrivals location. It currently takes 5 1/2 hours with a train change at Brussels.

    Plans for UK-Germany high speed rail services shelved due to ‘significantly changed economic environment’
     
  8. juddles

    juddles Established Member

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  9. GoldCanyon340

    GoldCanyon340 Established Member

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    Australia and NZ have always suffered for being at the end of the line: infinitesimal hub traffic and sometimes at the whim of carriers with either volatile markets or seasonal demand. The ULH market to me is a fascinating strategy move, not just for the distances but evolving to the next step of in flight well being, customer care etc.

    I don't agree QF will remove F. The airline historically has always liked a super premium product in its deck of cards, similar to BA having Concorde. Also think that's down to Australia's still existing inferiority complex which seems to me why they ordered the A380 in the first place: "other countries have it so we have to as well."
     
  10. AIRwin

    AIRwin Established Member

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    That didn't apply to the B777 though...
     
  11. sjk

    sjk Member

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    Someone senior at SQ told us there's been talk of CBR-SYD-LAX, which seemed a little pie-in-the-sky to me but I guess would be consistent with the QR model.
     
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  12. jase05

    jase05 Member

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    In 5 years time I still see ADL being treated with contempt by QF and having no international flights scheduled.
    Even a 737 to DPS or TT from here would be something!
     
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  13. moa999

    moa999 Senior Member

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    I disagree. I see a 320neoLR to SIN for Adelaide
     
  14. williamsf1

    williamsf1 Established Member

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    That has been spoken about for years.... QF/ VA and the Australian/US government would be highly unlikely to offer 5th freedom to SQ
     
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  15. dajop

    dajop Senior Member

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    Agree, and furthermore things have changed since SQ originally was trying to get slice of the action. At that time only QF and UA operated non stop between Australia and the contiguous 48. Now you also have VA, DL and AA ...
     
  16. GoldCanyon340

    GoldCanyon340 Established Member

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    The 777 is the aircraft QF should have bought.
     
  17. moa999

    moa999 Senior Member

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    When?
    The timing never really worked for Qantas.

    With hindsight QF possibly should have taken 777-300 instead of the 6 744ERs delivered in 2002, but that would have introduced a new type. But even by this time the base 777 was getting old.

    When the A380s were ordered it was the new aircraft on the horizon with advanced features (eg. Lower cabin pressure) and the 777-300ER only in development. The 380 CASM is below the 777 if you can fill it which QF is pretty good at.

    Qantas is a relatively small airline (and unlike Thai) has made the sensible decision not to have one of everything so has slipped some aircraft (eg. 777 and 340).

    Project Sunrise might deliver the 777X or a 350.
     
  18. juddles

    juddles Established Member

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    "Might"? Project Sunrise will come through to maturity, and Qantas will get their ULH jets. The two you name are really the only contenders. My money is that it will be a 777 development. Hence my suspicion in the not-too-distant future QFi will be a mix of just 787s and 777s.
     
  19. AIRwin

    AIRwin Established Member

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    And 737?
     
  20. juddles

    juddles Established Member

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    Sorry, I forgot those - I have never really regarded NZ and similar local destinations as really "international" :)
     
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