Upgrade to business using points SYD-LAX/DFW

[jonr]

Hi,

Long time reader but first time poster.

I am in the process of booking Qantas flights to NYC and on the first leg to either LAX/DFW (not fussy) I am looking to upgrade into business using points as work will only pay economy. Looking at expertflyer availability, QF11 seems to be the best bet (full availability in business in all classes except 'I' which is between 6 and 9 seats depending on the day).

Unfortunately due to a wedding on that weekend I am limited to the dates of 13/14/15 April.

Is anyone able to estimate my chances of success booking this far out? I am also a bit concerned given that school holidays start that week (though imagine these bookings would be mostly in economy?)

Jon

 

[Mwenenzi]

Welcome to the forum

...Is anyone able to estimate my chances of success booking this far out? I am also a bit concerned given that school holidays start that week (though imagine these bookings would be mostly in economy?)

Do you have QF status?
Will your employer pay for the more expensive economy fare that can be upgraded?
With QF your chances of a point upgrade to PE or J are always very low. Is more realistic to expect to fly in the class purchased.

 

[Flying mermaid]

I think that route is quite hard. Master FM's girl friend put in for a Y+ to J upgrade hkg to SYD and had no trouble getting it - even with only silver status. I requested an upgrade either y to y+ or J for master FM on QF11 today and he didn't get either. No harm in trying as you can get lucky, but don't be too disappointed if you don't get it....

 

[Mwenenzi]

Upgrade come late, after yield management has done its thing, but essentially from the same booking class/fare bucket as awards Although not 100% the same topic from http://www.australianfrequentflyer....cash-indicative-guide-55732-2.html#post992600

..The issue re: availability does depend largely on the route and the airline.
A few examples.
Plenty of availability MEL-LHR on QF9/10 in F at even a few months out.
Even more availability if happy to fly on BA in F.
A lot of availability in J from MEL/SYD to HKG on QF on the 388.
Very difficult to find J/F award seats to LAX though even for 1-2 people.
For any of the above, expect to never find >2 seats available in J or F especially on QF.

 

[jonr]

Thanks for the feedback. They will pay for Y class - but problem is I've lost some of my status over the past couple of years and am down to Silver which will make things more difficult.

The other option is to fly Virgin with UpgradeMe but from economy it will only let me try to bid for Premium which is a shame...

 

[Mwenenzi]

Thanks for the feedback. They will pay for Y class - but problem is I've lost some of my status over the past couple of years and am down to Silver which will make things more difficult...

Full Y booking class for international flights is likely to more expensive than discounted business booking class . It will a discount economy booking class like S or L Frequent Flyer - Earning Table

 

[jonr]

Another option may be buying the full economy fare ($2600) and paying to upgrade to discount premium economy (another $600 at today's prices). Would that increase the odds at all?

 

[Mwenenzi]

$2600 will still be a discount economy booking class.
PE is better than Y
No one can predict the % odds of upgrades The QF formulae used is not in the public domain.