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Not 100% probability, but I've found the turbulence advisory maps to be reasonably accurate when flying here in the USA. Maybe 1 out of 10 flights will have some extra bumps, or turn out to be a fizzer when moderate is expected.
I always check the site before each flight, mainly to gauge whether the cabin food/beverage service will be impacted by a lot of turbulence, and compensate in the lounge accordingly.
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