Tokyo Haneda slot - how will Virgin Operate it?

[elanshin]

Which suggests to me that maybe NH will release more award availability to Australia to make up for the short fall. After all, it's better getting something for those seats than nothing!

That's why they consistently have sales to Japan. In fact there's one right now 2.7k Return in J from SYD for May, Jun and August.

They were also flying the most out of SYD in those months with double daily. QF only moved to 4 daily flights to JP in Oct? Nov?

 

[mel-world]

I dunno about PER...but SQ has been selling oneway TYO-MEL/SYD in 'proper' business for approx. A$1.5k for ages now. You'd be mad to take VA.

Can you give me an example to illustrate this fare? Best I can find, even looking 12 months out, is around $4k OW ex MEL. Even an Economy seat is A$800-1000 depending on flights.

 

[ben95]

They were also flying the most out of SYD in those months with double daily

Too many eggs in one basket maybe? In the SYD-HND route you have 1x JL 2x QF 2x NH. Given the strong marketing power of QF in Australia and the market is made up of mostly Australian originating travelers you’d think it would be silly to compete head to head with the QF/JL alliance.

NH flying 1x from PER make a lot of sense to me. Now maybe NH should also shift 1x HND slot to MEL as well to differentiate the 1x JL and 1x QF both going to NRT from MEL would be a good move.

 

[ben95]

I assume the canx is all due to the weather related issues around Cairns.

As of right now VH-8IB is still stuck at HND. Probably scheduled to operate tonight’s VA78 back to CNS.

 

[elanshin]

Too much egg in one basket maybe? In the SYD-HND route you have 1x JL 2x QF 2x NH. Given the strong marketing power of QF in Australia and the market is made up of mostly Australian originating travelers you’d think it would be silly to compete head to head with the QF/JL alliance.

NH flying 1x from PER make a lot of sense to me. Now maybe NH should also shift 1x HND slot to MEL as well to differentiate the 1x JL and 1x QF both going to NRT from MEL would be a good move.

A bit OT but NH doing double daily isn't too strange, they never tested it precovid - it was supposed to start Mar 2020. They probably had very very good load factors pre 2020 as only QF (744) and NH (789) were flying into HND with 1 flight each. JL flew into NRT and all other cities were NRT as well. Post covid they now have to compete with JL directly now for HND. I'd also hazard a guess that they don't necessarily want to give up their SYD slot.

Also while Aussie tourism to JP has exploded again, I don't think JP to Aus has the same enthusiasm. At the end of the day SYD <> TYO is still a premium business heavy route as well as a leisure route.

 

[Saab34]

Are they low seat numbers because they are keeping fares high? Or are fares fairly good value at the moment?

Japan Airlines likely has higher numbers due to its Melbourne service boosting the overall figure, that flight is always sold out.

Perhaps ANA should start Melbourne flight, pull one off Sydney, or even try BNE

 

[twiningb]

Perhaps ANA should start Melbourne flight, pull one off Sydney, or even try BNE

What are people thinking now about the VA HND slot after Bain divest (at least part of) it?

Do we think the buyer will want to get widebodies and switch back to BNE<>HND? Is this a reason why NH are keeping double-daily SYD or might cut one frequency over to MEL, on the basis that BNE will eventually be covered by VA metal?

 

[elanshin]

Are they low seat numbers because they are keeping fares high? Or are fares fairly good value at the moment?

Japan Airlines likely has higher numbers due to its Melbourne service boosting the overall figure, that flight is always sold out.

Perhaps ANA should start Melbourne flight, pull one off Sydney, or even try BNE

ANA on sale is the cheapest out of the 3 (NH, JL , QF) full service that fly. ~800 return from SYD for Y and 2700 for J. See above for why I think they're maintaining SYD for now.

What are people thinking now about the VA HND slot after Bain divest (at least part of) it?

Do we think the buyer will want to get widebodies and switch back to BNE<>HND? Is this a reason why NH are keeping double-daily SYD or might cut one frequency over to MEL, on the basis that BNE will eventually be covered by VA metal?

If VA gets a widebody I could see them moving to BNE. Currently noone serves BNE <> HND and it also can connect from SYD / MEL much better. Most people don't know how much easier it is at HND instead of NRT until they fly into HND for the first time (my SO did for the first time this year after a decade of NRT and was confused at how fast we got into town).

I don't think NH will switch out anytime soon. JP overseas tourism hasn't quite rebounded the same way (at least to Aus) probably due to the weak Yen. Schools haven't been sending exchanges either. I think they would want their SYD slot as well. It's also telling that QF moved to double SYD <> HND as well when they could've kept MEL <> HND and run a SYD <> NRT service instead.

 

[kangarooflyer88]

Those NH numbers are dismal

The NH route network remains a shell of its former self, notable omissions:

• Auckland (to connect to partner NZ)
• Vienna (to connect to partner OS)
• Seoul Incheon (to connect with partner OZ)
• Stockholm (to connect with partner SK)
• Taiwan (to connect with partner BR)
• Istanbul (to connect with partner TK)

To be honest I'm surprised they serve Bangkok Suvarnabhumi Airport, I was half expecting them to serve Don Mueang instead!

Additionally, NH has axed service to major destinations like Rome (Italy), Saipan (popular Japanese tourist destination),

If VA gets a widebody I could see them moving to BNE. Currently noone serves BNE <> HND and it also can connect from SYD / MEL much better. Most people don't know how much easier it is at HND instead of NRT until they fly into HND for the first time (my SO did for the first time this year after a decade of NRT and was confused at how fast we got into town).

I think Virgin has made it clear that wide bodies are off the table for a while. There is additional capital expenses associated with acquiring the airplane plus the need to start another airline Virgin Australia (Widebody) to handle pilots, maintenance, etc. Certainly not something you want to do when you are poised for an exit on to the markets.

It's also telling that QF moved to double SYD <> HND as well when they could've kept MEL <> HND and run a SYD <> NRT service instead.

Presumably the QAL cartel wants to put the squeeze on NH here. They currently have a limited route network due to them not flying into many major Star Alliance hubs in Europe and this excess capacity will do no favours for pricing.

 

[Digicola]

The NH route network remains a shell of its former self, notable omissions:

• Auckland (to connect to partner NZ)
• Vienna (to connect to partner OS)
• Seoul Incheon (to connect with partner OZ)
• Stockholm (to connect with partner SK)
• Taiwan (to connect with partner BR)
• Istanbul (to connect with partner TK)

To be honest I'm surprised they serve Bangkok Suvarnabhumi Airport, I was half expecting them to serve Don Mueang instead!

Additionally, NH has axed service to major destinations like Rome (Italy), Saipan (popular Japanese tourist destination),

I think Virgin has made it clear that wide bodies are off the table for a while. There is additional capital expenses associated with acquiring the airplane plus the need to start another airline Virgin Australia (Widebody) to handle pilots, maintenance, etc. Certainly not something you want to do when you are poised for an exit on to the markets.

Presumably the QAL cartel wants to put the squeeze on NH here. They currently have a limited route network due to them not flying into many major Star Alliance hubs in Europe and this excess capacity will do no favours for pricing.

ICN and TPE are voluntary omissions. GMP and TSA not only have great O&D but also funnel the HND hub. BR and OZ are partners but it isn’t a JV a butts in NH seats generate the most revenue and these routes generate the highest yield.

I think NH should try harder to push EU/US connections. KE is a player on the kangaroo route despite having unidirectional connections (AU-EU requires an overnight), something that NH wouldn’t need due to having two daily flights. HND-SYD effectively works as a point to point route for them right now.

 

[bcworld]

Can you give me an example to illustrate this fare? Best I can find, even looking 12 months out, is around $4k OW ex MEL. Even an Economy seat is A$800-1000 depending on flights.

I did say TYO-MEL...not the other way around. It's readily available and has been for quite some time.

 

[PERLHR]

Too many eggs in one basket maybe? In the SYD-HND route you have 1x JL 2x QF 2x NH. Given the strong marketing power of QF in Australia and the market is made up of mostly Australian originating travelers you’d think it would be silly to compete head to head with the QF/JL alliance.

NH flying 1x from PER make a lot of sense to me. Now maybe NH should also shift 1x HND slot to MEL as well to differentiate the 1x JL and 1x QF both going to NRT from MEL would be a good move.

The PER sector is only 3 days a week..maybe going higher? Costs are 9K plus in biz.

 

[yachty]

I think Virgin has made it clear that wide bodies are off the table for a while. There is additional capital expenses associated with acquiring the airplane plus the need to start another airline Virgin Australia (Widebody) to handle pilots, maintenance, etc. Certainly not something you want to do when you are poised for an exit on to the markets.

I don't think they would, the old VA International entity continues to exist and is used in the same way it was pre-administration. There's no regulatory reason why they'd need to create another entity for a new aircraft type.

Agree that widebodies are off the table. The network doesn't need it. VA, as an investment, is attractive precisely because the domestic market is so profitable. Beyond that, it's hard to think where they could send them (successfully).

It's hard to see why they persist with CNS-HND. They certainly don't seem very invested in making it work.

 

[dajop]

The NH route network remains a shell of its former self, notable omissions:

• Auckland (to connect to partner NZ)
• Vienna (to connect to partner OS)
• Seoul Incheon (to connect with partner OZ)
• Stockholm (to connect with partner SK)
• Taiwan (to connect with partner BR)
• Istanbul (to connect with partner TK)

Maybe, they're more interested in connections to/from their own network than sharing revenue with partners, along with strong O/D traffic.

They do still fly to Taiwan (TSA) and Seoul (GMP), but obviously not to the long haul hubs, just the "NE Asia" city airports. And for the ARN, IST, VIE maybe the economics just don't stack up any more, as they need to fly 20-30% greater distance to Europe now than previously. As for AKL they do codeshare on NZ (or I guess could serve via SYD connections).

 

[sudoer]

I did say TYO-MEL...not the other way around. It's readily available and has been for quite some time.

Have booked this multiple time, it's an excellent fare.

 

[kangarooflyer88]

I dunno about PER...but SQ has been selling oneway TYO-MEL/SYD in 'proper' business for approx. A$1.5k for ages now. You'd be mad to take VA.

There are a couple of downsides that come to mind, one of which is connecting at SIN, many might prefer the non-stop connection. Also depending on who you are crediting the flights with it may be advantageous to take Virgin over say SQ. For instance, Singapore airlines isn't considered a preferred (despite them being part of Star Alliance) and they only earn up to 125% mileage in business whereas Virgin earns up to 200% and as a preferred partner it means PQPs are only divided by 5 (instead of 6). Hence if you are looking to accrue status on United Virgin would be the better option.

As for the hard product you are absolutely correct that it is better, not even a close comparison both in terms of on board service and certainly the hard product. Airport experience is mixed. I know some folks on this forum love to talk about how wonderful Changi is, but quite frankly I don't understand what all the joy is about it, especially with the short layover where you might have time to use the restroom before clearing security at your gate. On longer connections, sure maybe the Singapore business lounge would be a nice break for the trip, although if the KrisFlyer Gold lounge is anything to go by, it too could be a disappointment.

Post automatically merged: Dec 19, 2023

Have booked this multiple time, it's an excellent fare.

if I may ask, how do you get to Japan? Presumably it must be on points as a classic award, no?

 

[HS-TQE]

I don't think they would, the old VA International entity continues to exist and is used in the same way it was pre-administration. There's no regulatory reason why they'd need to create another entity for a new aircraft type.

Agree that widebodies are off the table. The network doesn't need it. VA, as an investment, is attractive precisely because the domestic market is so profitable. Beyond that, it's hard to think where they could send them (successfully).

It's hard to see why they persist with CNS-HND. They certainly don't seem very invested in making it work.

If it wasn't for the Queensland Government's funding (alongside funding from CNS Airport) of the VA flight through AAIF and their (mediocre at best) attempts to promote and attract inbound tourism ex-TYO to NQld/CNS, which IIRC have resulted in 'mixed' outcomes at best, everyone would agree that Bain would've let the HND slot lapse (without said funding) back in March earlier this year.

 

[elanshin]

It's hard to see why they persist with CNS-HND. They certainly don't seem very invested in making it work.

Perhaps a "value" for future owners. Hypothetically, say SIA (or another big airline) becomes majority shareholder in VA in the future, they could put that to use AND have widebodies to possibly make it work.

As for the hard product you are absolutely correct that it is better, not even a close comparison both in terms of on board service and certainly the hard product. Airport experience is mixed. I know some folks on this forum love to talk about how wonderful Changi is, but quite frankly I don't understand what all the joy is about it, especially with the short layover where you might have time to use the restroom before clearing security at your gate. On longer connections, sure maybe the Singapore business lounge would be a nice break for the trip, although if the KrisFlyer Gold lounge is anything to go by, it too could be a disappointment.

Head landside - Jewel is pretty bonkers for a mall attached to an airport. On a short layover it's like any airport, but on a long layover there loads to do. We spent 3 hours exploring the gardens above the jewel alone last year. Thats not even considering it doesn't take very long to reach Singapore centre (cheap and quick). Since my trip last year, I tell friends "if you want to experience Japan in a 4-6 hour layover, don't go to HND or NRT, go to SIN"

 

[ben95]

Agree that widebodies are off the table. The network doesn't need it.

I think largely the network works perfectly well with just narrow bodies. But I think there’s still place for a small fleet of small WB (5x 787-8/9 would be perfect I think).

VA, as an investment, is attractive precisely because the domestic market is so profitable.

VA would have no problem filling these 787s on domestic trunk routes (QF regularly runs A330s domestically as well).

Back in the days when VA1 first started running premium J products between SYD-PER it gave QF a serious run for their money. I don’t see why this couldn’t be repeated in 2024. This will also then allow VAi to efficiently utilize their HND slots from BNE/SYD/MEL, or maybe even resume their BNE-US flying where it was profitable pre COVID.

 

[HS-TQE]

Perhaps a "value" for future owners. Hypothetically, say SIA (or another big airline) becomes majority shareholder in VA in the future, they could put that to use AND have widebodies to possibly make it work.

The media atm seem to bring up Qatar Airways every now and again as a potential stakeholder in VA to address their own bilateral issues between Qatar (the country) and Australia.

Can't see SQ getting involved on a major equity project in Australia for a long time (if ever) after their three failures through SQ's indirect involvement in Ansett (via a minority stake in NZ), and their direct involvement in the failures of the Australian arm of the Tiger Airways Group (trading as Tiger Airways Australia) and Virgin Australia.

Head landside - Jewel is pretty bonkers for a mall attached to an airport. On a short layover it's like any airport, but on a long layover there loads to do. We spent 3 hours exploring the gardens above the jewel alone last year. Thats not even considering it doesn't take very long to reach Singapore centre (cheap and quick). Since my trip last year, I tell friends "if you want to experience Japan in a 4-6 hour layover, don't go to HND or NRT, go to SIN"

I've generally tried to book 8-9 hour layovers in the late afternoon before the Redeye if I felt like Jewel is worth a visit, combined with the the lounge (varies between pay per use or a J one) .