QF's Vancouver experiment looks a success

[Melburnian1]

The BITRE figures out today for January 2016 give every indication that QF's occasional Boeing 744 flights between SYD and YVR have been successful.

We don't know the all important yield per seat but what is shown is that southbound from Canada to Australia, the load factor was 95 per cent (3750 passengers, 3948 seats, 11 total number of flights) and northbound a very healthy 84.1 per cent given that in January with school holidays ending one would normally expect northbound loadings to be quite a deal lighter.

Maybe the Oz- Canada nonstop flight 'market' is underserved with Air Canada receiving rather mixed reviews on various websites. Flying via LAX is an unattractive alternative to many, and time consuming to boot.

I don't know enough about WestJet to speculate as to whether it would ever take the risk of purchasing planes to commit to the lengthy sector to and from Oz from Canada's west coast. VA strikes me as fairly similar to my limited knowledge of WestJet: VA already flies between the Oz east coast and LAX, so it has taken the transpacific route risk.

Perhaps in time QF may inject more resources into this SYD - YVR - SYD route. I assume that since the Great Circle Sydney, Australia to Toronto, Canada distance is 15555 kilometres that is just too far for a nonstop flight in 2016 even if an airline was able to obtain the necessary slots and inter-governmental agreements, and perceived that between Canada's largest city and Sydney, Australia there was the demand for such an initiative and that it could be financially attractive for an airline, bearing in mind that for instance SQ struck trouble with its all-business class configuration between SIN and the USA east coast: it withdrew the monoclass offering due to losses or insufficient returns on shareholders' funds.

Conversely some airlines do very well across the Pacific from various locations: NZ is one and from MNL and now CEB PR is another, while JL, KE and OZ also carry many passengers from further north to the good ol' USA.

 

[Himeno]

QF already had a good idea about YVR traffic numbers as they used to fly there via SFO.

Westjet is (has?) getting some ex QF 767s.

 

[BD1959]

I find QF's YVR and JNB to be strange destinations on their Long Haul Network with neither destination serving a partner hub which are continually told is vital for QF's model (at least there are some connection options on AA via SFO).

Regards,

BD

 

[Cool Cat Phil]

Those are very good statistics for QF.

It was the outbound sector from YVR that in the past that suffered poor loadings, that resulted in the route being suspended in the past.
The January figures have shown QF has abeen successful in attracting good solid loadings back on the return leg.

Can the loadings be obtained solidly all year round would be my next question ?

 

[Quickstatus]

Would this route suit a daily 787?.

 

[Mattg]

SYD-YVR does indeed appear to be a successful route addition for Qantas. By comparison, loads on other QF flights to the USA were 91.9% for inbound and 77.6% for outbound traffic in January.

QF's loads were also higher than Air Canada's on the SYD-YVR route, on average, for the month of January.

I find QF's YVR and JNB to be strange destinations on their Long Haul Network with neither destination serving a partner hub which are continually told is vital for QF's model (at least there are some connection options on AA via SFO).

Regards,

BD

Doesn't BA (Comair) have a bit of a hub in JNB?

 

[Melburnian1]

Can the loadings be obtained solidly all year round would be most next question ?

Cool Cat Phil, an excellent question.

It may assist that at present the Australian dollar and Canadian loonie are at close to parity. Against that, there may not be much immigration between the two nations so 'VFR' traffic may be relatively low: much lower than for destinations such as New Zealand, the UK, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines and South Africa as a few examples.

I do not see many overtly Canadian backpackers around Australia either but part of that may be that unless they have a Maple Leaf on their pack, one cannot readily identify them even if one hears a conversation snippet as I'm not sure many of us can distinguish between the more northerly USA accents and the non-French Canadian.

Whether Australia has the same level of attractiveness attractions-wise for Canadians as Canada undoubtedly does for many Australians is an open question, but in theory for those Canadians sick of their winters Australia may rank as a reasonable place to visit between November and March - but tropical southeast Asia competes with us.

 

[RooFlyer]

Thanks to Melburnian1 for posting those stats- very welcome.

I find QF's YVR and JNB to be strange destinations on their Long Haul Network with neither destination serving a partner hub which are continually told is vital for QF's model (at least there are some connection options on AA via SFO).

Regards,

BD

I think you'll find there is strong traffic from the mining sector to/from Oz to both Sth Africa and Canada and J cabins are probably disproportionately used for such pax I know that when i go Oz-LAX and then on AC's flight to either YVR or YYC, the J cabin on the AC flight is usually mostly filled with pax I recognise from the QF flight cabin.

As well as their SFO numbers himeno, QF can see transfers north onto AC and Westjet from SFO and LAX landings now, if made on the same booking (ie I can see my own in MMB).

The fact that ANZ and AC can both offer daily flights to/from NZ and SYD and YVR respectively (and AC going double daily in our summer) to me shows there should be plenty of room for a One World carrier to service that route, hopefully year round.

Cool Cat Phil, an excellent question.

It may assist that at present the Australian dollar and Canadian loonie are at close to parity. Against that, there may not be much immigration between the two nations so 'VFR' traffic may be relatively low: much lower than for destinations such as New Zealand, the UK, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines and South Africa as a few examples.

I do not see many overtly Canadian backpackers around Australia either but part of that may be that unless they have a Maple Leaf on their pack, one cannot readily identify them even if one hears a conversation snippet as I'm not sure many of us can distinguish between the more northerly USA accents and the non-French Canadian.

Whether Australia has the same level of attractiveness attractions-wise for Canadians as Canada undoubtedly does for many Australians is an open question, but in theory for those Canadians sick of their winters Australia may rank as a reasonable place to visit between November and March - but tropical southeast Asia competes with us.

As a regular visitor to Canada, I can assure that Australia is a very attractive destination, especially in their winter/our summer (which is why QF started the service in that period). The cost of them visiting the US now is a factor, and they aren't as 'comfortable' in visiting SE Asia as Australians are. The analogy to Asia for them are Caribbean/Central American destinations. But for a decent holiday in the sun, they want to do Australia (and NZ).

On Westjet, I'm pretty certain they would never do a YVR-Oz route. Although they code-share with QF and others now, they have no formal alliance network and are more akin to Virgin before VA went away from the LCC model.

 

[Melburnian1]

RooFlyer, one perhaps minor area of concern might be that the Alberta-based WestJet has suffered from the decrease in mining activity (and presumably mining company profits and employment) in Canada, so perhaps that is at least a minor 'negative' factor.

However Canada's population is above 35 million and in recent years it has attracted quite a lot of presumably wealthy Hong Kong/ mainland China and upwardly mobile Filipino immigrants, so that may be a balancing 'positive' factor.

As a matter of interest more Canadians are visiting southeast Asia. In the first two months of 2016, an estimated 28,000 plus went to Vietnam - up about 10 per cent on the comparable 2015 period while more than 21,000 visited Philippines, up a surprising 17.8 per cent in January 2016 (February figures as yet unavailable). I wasn't able to find up to date figures for Thailand:

International visitors to Viet Nam in February and 2 months of 2016 - Vietnam National Administration of Tourism

http://e-services.tourism.gov.ph:8080/didcs/Static Documents/january 2016_table1.pdf

The Australian Bureau of Statistics' January 2016 overseas arrivals and departures informs us that in January 2016 15600 Canadians visited Oz; in January 2015 the number was 14200 and (simply for comparison to show how much tourism has expanded over the years) in January 1991 when the 'series' of data collection commenced, just 4700 made the 20000 kilometre or so epic trek.

So from 'their' end to 'ours', it appears to be a growing market. Steady growth of six to eight per cent a year is impressive as it is above population growth so that can tell us that either incomes and hence propensity to travel are increasing, or the relative attractiveness of a destination to visit (in this case Australia) has increased. One factor will usually be the availability of nonstop (or more frequent indirect) flights and perhaps (though maybe not on this seasonal route for QF) resultant lower airfares.

 

[medhead]

Doesn't BA (Comair) have a bit of a hub in JNB?

Although the Qantas first option for a connection seemed to be SAA when I was searching for a trip to Cape Town.

 

[Melburnian1]

Have a look at page 13 of the attached - quite interesting that the Canadian tourism industry regards Australia as 'the competitor':

http://en.destinationcanada.com/sit...napshot/tourismsnapshot-dec2015_en-lowres.pdf

Also surprising that South Korea sends more visitors to Oz than it does to Canada, though not by much. If I'd had to guess, I would have thought Canada would have more 'pull' being next to the USA geographically.

 

[RooFlyer]

Very interesting, thanks.

 

[Quickstatus]

I wonder if the excellent load factors ex YVR could be due to Canadians (being given a fraction of a chance) voting wth their feet and giving their national carrier a 3 finger salute. The restrictive air rights and resultant lack of competition wins AC no friends.

 

[Scr77]

Those are very good statistics for QF.

Can the loadings be obtained solidly all year round would be my next question ?

Winter to Vancouver for ski season, Summer to Seattle for connections with Alaska Airlines to Alaska and Canada. Perfect solution that would suit me!

 

[BD1959]

SYD-YVR does indeed appear to be a successful route addition for Qantas. By comparison, loads on other QF flights to the USA were 91.9% for inbound and 77.6% for outbound traffic in January.

Loads is only half of the story. Can you build a profitable freight business on such a seasonal timetable?

Doesn't BA (Comair) have a bit of a hub in JNB?

Even if all Comair flights were offered (and most destinations outside of CPT only seem to offer the BA/Comair codeshare in one direction) the emphasis should still on "bit of a hub" given the lack of destinations!

I think you'll find there is strong traffic from the mining sector to/from Oz to both Sth Africa and Canada and J cabins are probably disproportionately used for such pax I know that when i go Oz-LAX and then on AC's flight to either YVR or YYC, the J cabin on the AC flight is usually mostly filled with pax I recognise from the QF flight cabin.

If the mining sector was so supportive of YVR, wouldn't that be reflected in a year-round schedule rather than just the ski season?

Don't get me wrong, I love to see QF expanding its International Network, I just don't know that we - as mere observers - have the ability to determine the success or otherwise of particular routes, and especially routes which contradict the strategy Mr Joyce relates from time-to-time.

Regards,

BD

 

[Melburnian1]

BD1959, all fair points, and yes ideally a year round schedule would be optimal.

However seasonal timetables have been a longstanding feature with transport operators.

Greyhound Coaches and before it the NSW railways' Cooma Mail used to run extra trips or longer trains during the snow season.

The Victorian Railways ran special Sunday summer only excursion trains from Ballarat and Spencer Street, Melbourne to Queenscliff.

Many European railways run vastly different timetables in winter as opposed to summer. Eurostar even runs through trains to one particular destination just some of the year.

Many tourist attractions in Canada or Europe shut down during some months, or run vastly reduced hours or days of operation. We even see that at Australia's limited number of on-mountain facilities.

There are fewer leisure trips operated by our domestic airlines outside school holidays.

I absolutely agree that yield not posteriors on fabric seats is the key, and as I suggested as the OP we cannot determine yields. However my point was simply that QF in experiencing reasonable to good passenger loadings in both directions, not just one in January 2016 was thankfully not seeing say just 30 per cent of seats filled. While I do not know how much per seat kilometre each traveller paid, at least there is some underlying demand given that we can assume that not every seat was sold at a bargain basement fare.

At the very least, this strikes me as a very good start and given populations are rising at both ends one would hope that in time QF would see fit to expand to more months of operation and then eventually to daily. It cannot be easy to establish such routes and there will always be a lag time of say 12 - 18 months to ensure that sufficient travel agents and travellers know about the flights so that bookings are maximised.

The mining sector that RooFlyer may have excellent knowledge of cannot 'show its support' if an airline does not offer flights in the first instance between two city pairs, so perhaps QF should - in time - bite the bullet and take a risk, and see how it goes. I suspect that there is good reason to be at least cautiously optimistic.

 

[BD1959]

BD1959, all fair points, and yes ideally a year round schedule would be optimal.

However seasonal timetables have been a longstanding feature with transport operators.

Greyhound Coaches and before it the NSW railways' Cooma Mail used to run extra trips or longer trains during the snow season.

The Victorian Railways ran special Sunday summer only excursion trains from Ballarat and Spencer Street, Melbourne to Queenscliff.

Many European railways run vastly different timetables in winter as opposed to summer. Eurostar even runs through trains to one particular destination just some of the year.

Many tourist attractions in Canada or Europe shut down during some months, or run vastly reduced hours or days of operation. We even see that at Australia's limited number of on-mountain facilities.

There are fewer leisure trips operated by our domestic airlines outside school holidays.

I absolutely agree that yield not posteriors on fabric seats is the key, and as I suggested as the OP we cannot determine yields. However my point was simply that QF in experiencing reasonable to good passenger loadings in both directions, not just one in January 2016 was thankfully not seeing say just 30 per cent of seats filled. While I do not know how much per seat kilometre each traveller paid, at least there is some underlying demand given that we can assume that not every seat was sold at a bargain basement fare.

At the very least, this strikes me as a very good start and given populations are rising at both ends one would hope that in time QF would see fit to expand to more months of operation and then eventually to daily. It cannot be easy to establish such routes and there will always be a lag time of say 12 - 18 months to ensure that sufficient travel agents and travellers know about the flights so that bookings are maximised.

The mining sector that RooFlyer may have excellent knowledge of cannot 'show its support' if an airline does not offer flights in the first instance between two city pairs, so perhaps QF should - in time - bite the bullet and take a risk, and see how it goes. I suspect that there is good reason to be at least cautiously optimistic.

My point is that QF - from their strategies - don't appear to consider themselves in the market for distinct LH destinations (which your railway/etc analogies illustrate) - moreso leisure destinations which it has consistently thrown the way of Jetstar. Further more, QF *appear* to consider it appropriate to pull metal from a "less Profitable" route and deploy that metal elsewhere, often baffling observers on this site (myself included). Now it could be that, with the cheap price of oil, this strategy has now changed and QF are now considering destinations - and the continued use of metal "previously condemned" on such routes.

Interesting times, n'est pas? (for some of our Canadian readers!)

Regards,

BD