Expected widespread delays/cancellations

[jehane]

Sometimes there are delays across airlines due to factors such as the weather. I thought I'd start a new thread to centralise discussions of these events, rather than having them across multiple airline threads.

To kick it off, the strong cold front that moved through WA today will make its way across towards the east. On Thursday, Melbourne can expect some delays particularly in the morning peak (7-9am) with single runway ops expected. Likewise in the afternoon peak (5-7pm) with the winds increasing further and turbulence increasing. Friday morning gets even more interesting when the front actually arrives, with the winds at their strongest.

 

[Melburnian1]

jehane, yes, if I may suggest, let's keep it for general weather forecasts (including updates) that suggest (named) airports' flights will be adversely affected.

I will continue to post individual delays under the respective airlines.

Unfortunately with MEL and SYD in particular nowadays so busy, if either of thjem catches a cold as a rough rule of thumb probably 40 - 50 per cent of Australian domestic flights can then expect to suffer delays. This can even include low frequency routes where airlines take a decision to delay a flight (BNE to ISA might be an example) because there are several connectors from say Sydney.

If there's a strong cold front from the west, this I assume also slows westbound flights such as MEL, SYD or BNE across to PER, a point some other AFFers such as AviatorInsight have recently commented upon. The disparity between west and eastbound flight times (i.e. in the air) can reach a zenith.

 

[Melburnian1]

For Thursday 2 August 2018, fog is predicted for Sydney early in the morning and morning fog and frost for Canberra.

'Damaging winds' are possible in Perth.

 

[jehane]

Another strong front will move across SE Australia tomorrow. In particular expect delays at Melbourne with strong northerly winds meaning likely single runway, combined with rain and showers. Sunday mornings are usually quiet in terms of traffic, but the afternoon/evening peak is usually very busy.

This front will reach Sydney on Monday, which could prove interesting. Westerly winds behind the front, so depending on how strong they are, raises the possibility of using the cross runway, which would mean significant delays and probably cancellations and mergers of some flights.

 

[Melburnian1]

Another strong front will move across SE Australia tomorrow. In particular expect delays at Melbourne with strong northerly winds meaning likely single runway, combined with rain and showers. Sunday mornings are usually quiet in terms of traffic, but the afternoon/evening peak is usually very busy.

This front will reach Sydney on Monday, which could prove interesting. Westerly winds behind the front, so depending on how strong they are, raises the possibility of using the cross runway, which would mean significant delays and probably cancellations and mergers of some flights.

jehane, unfortunately when either SYD or MEL 'catch the proverbial cold' so to speak, about 50 per cent of Australia's domestic flights can be affected. Sometimes this can even be for aircraft operating lower frequency routes because they must wait for connecting passengers.

International flights can also suffer delays, though they rarely seem to be as late as the domestics.

Agree this sort of weather is far more deleterious to punctuality (and cancellations) on a Sunday arvo/evening than in the morning.

 

[Melburnian1]

As at 1400 hours mid afternoon on Sunday 5 August, winds were gusting at up to 63kmh (34 knots) at MEL. Not many delays at the airport but northbound Asian-bound flights are losing time in the air.

 

[Pushka]

It hasn’t reached Adelaide yet @2pm.

 

[jehane]

Sorry, had Real Life (TM) to attend to...

Of recent interest, Sydney was on the cross runway for much of yesterday (Tuesday) due to strong westerlies, which is always a challenge. Today Melbourne had a front go through around midday, so strong northerlies in the morning followed by strong westerlies following.

Tomorrow (Thursday), Melbourne should be able to get through the morning peak before the northerlies once again strengthen ahead of the next front coming across from the west. That's a pretty big front, similar to the one last week, and will cross Perth overnight, Adelaide around midday Friday and Melbourne late Friday. Canberra and Sydney on Saturday, and even Brisbane on Sunday, though it may not do much that far north.

A big high is coming in after the front, so there'll be a bit of break while that goes through. Except of course for all the subsequent morning fogs...

 

[jehane]

Again with the Real Life interruptions...

A cold front will move through Melbourne in the early morning, with the chance of a thunderstorm. However it should clear before traffic gets busy so not expecting much impact. From late morning, the W'ly winds will strengthen, so it's likely that they'll be restricted to the E/W runway. There'll be an increase in showers and turbulence in the evening which may also be a problem, however being a Saturday, probably not too much.

Those W'lies are also going to hit Sydney tomorrow, plus there is flight testing planned. Probably expect the cross runway to be used from late afternoon, which means fewer aircraft able to land. Again, being Saturday, hopefully not too much impact. Those winds will continue into Sunday morning at Sydney, but ease around midday. A S'ly change comes through in the late afternoon or evening, which often brings low cloud and rain, so possibly some issues for the Sunday evening peak. Melbourne can also expect poor weather then.

The next front will come through Perth on Monday, so expect showers and maybe a thunderstorm. That will gradually make its way east, reaching Adelaide late Thursday/early Friday.

Another weak front will pass south of Melbourne late Monday/Tuesday, but likely just some showers.

 

[AviatorInsight]

Those W'lies are also going to hit Sydney tomorrow, plus there is flight testing planned. Probably expect the cross runway to be used from late afternoon, which means fewer aircraft able to land. Again, being Saturday, hopefully not too much impact. Those winds will continue into Sunday morning at Sydney, but ease around midday. .

Also, ATC staff shortages in SYD today which is affecting the landing rate. We have been delayed 30mins out of BNE this morning and are struggling to make up time throughout the rest of the day.

 

[Melburnian1]

There may be some fog in Melbourne tomorrow (Monday 3 September) as its calm at 2325, humidity is at 95 per cent but against that, barometer is rising.

 

[jehane]

Tomorrow (Tuesday) could see widespread delays across the eastern seaboard. Showers and low cloud throughout the day at both Sydney and Brisbane, plus NE winds at Melbourne meaning single runway ops for most of the day, though maybe not until after the 7am peak hour.
Perth is also in for heavy showers with a front moving through early morning but should clear by midmorning.
Wednesday and Thursday sees that front cross SA and VIC, with strong n'ly winds and raised dust.

 

[Quickstatus]

MEL:
Conditions were nearly right for Fog. Just had some 7km/h wind around 4-7am which kept things clear
Sounds like a normal windy day at MEL
At the airport winds are 350/10.
Currently the airport is using R27 for arrivals and departures and R34 for departures as well
And in the afternoon they are planning R34 for dep and arr

SYD:
Wet and windy with passing showers in area
winds 120/10 and visibility 10km
Runways 16L and R in parallel operations for dep and arr

BNE:
Runway 14/32 is not available due to construction of the new R01L/19R. Currently using R19 for dep and arr which is the main runway
winds 170/10
Wet with some showers in the area
visibility >10km

Overall Not conditions that would normally cause any major issues at least for these 3 airports

 

[love_the_life]

No delays at CBR so far this morning, both inbound and outbound although an 8.35 scheduled QF flight from SYD was 35 mins late and a QF from BNE scheduled for 10.35 has been cancelled. Plenty of cloud about but no fog or strong winds this morning.

 

[Quickstatus]

Ah sorry @love_the_life for omitting CBR from my above post.