Will Coronavirus push fares down on carriers especially CX, JL?

M

Max Samuels

Guest
I am travelling to Paris in June and still have not purchased a ticket. Keeping in mind that June is pretty much peak season in Europe, I checked today and I can get a rtn MEL-CDG on CX for $1300 - which is pretty cheap for Europe in general on a good airline, and especially for June.

My question is this: do you guys think that fares will continue to fall? I am particularly interested in PE/J maybe F. I recall during SARS how people pretty much avoided HKG and CX prices were sooooooo low. In fact, that is how I was first introduced to CX - and how I learned that QF was not the best airline in the world at all (I was young - forgive me). And I have never looked back!

Anyway, I know it is a bit of a gamble, but if anyone has any inside knowledge.... when do you think would be the best time to buy a ticket in the current situation we find ourselves?
 
Tourism to Hong Kong has fallen 99%.

One of two things will happen:
a) Prices will fall to boost demand; or
b) The airlines will go bankrupt (even if you reduce frequencies you still have expensive assets on the ground earning nothing and plenty of fixed fees to pay).
 
Tourism to Hong Kong has fallen 99%.

One of two things will happen:
a) Prices will fall to boost demand; or
b) The airlines will go bankrupt (even if you reduce frequencies you still have expensive assets on the ground earning nothing and plenty of fixed fees to pay).
But surely an airline would go to option (a) first, give that a whirl for a few months, and then (b)?
No one goes straight from normal fares to bankrupt??
 
That's what I'm implying. Fares have to go down*.

* Or airlines have to offer something more to customers to entice them to purchase (eg a Qantas DSC offer).
 
Qantas are cutting services rather than dropping fares ...

As I have already said, the other option is b): The airlines will go bankrupt (even if you reduce frequencies you still have expensive assets on the ground earning nothing and plenty of fixed fees to pay).

HNA Group has already hit the wall.

Qantas are expecting a $150mil hit to revenue. Will Qantas go bankrupt? No. But only because they are not (solely) an Asian carrier (see the title of this thread).
 
Qantas group are cutting services with an effective grounding of 18 aircraft while taking a 150M$ hit according to Alan Joyce.
“The capacity we’re taking out is the equivalent of grounding 18 aircraft across Qantas and Jetstar until the end of May, which in turn impacts about 700 full time roles. To avoid job losses we’ll be using leave balances across our workforce of 30,000 and freezing recruitment to help ride this out. We’ll also take advantage of having some aircraft on the ground by bringing forward planned maintenance,” added Mr Joyce.
 
Qantas group are cutting services with an effective grounding of 18 aircraft while taking a 150M$ hit according to Alan Joyce.

Exactly. Now imagine you are an Asian carrier operating out of a port that has experienced a 99% drop in visitors (ie CX). Is that an option? To ground 90% of your fleet? How long before you are bankrupt?
 
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Qantas group are cutting services with an effective grounding of 18 aircraft while taking a 150M$ hit according to Alan Joyce.
Well maybe they should take this downtime to focus on improving in other areas? Some staff training on how to treat customers better? Maybe even get a new CEO?
 
I wasn't prepared to wait to see if prices drop further so I have just booked Qatar return 'J', Canberra to Frankfurt for May, back June.
Qatar has a current promo, 20FEB20 until midnight tonight. This is 10%.

There were cheaper options via Asia including Finnair, flying Oz to HK with Cathay, also via Bangkok. I'm so close to LTG that I wanted to keep with OneWorld

MH/Oman, China Airlines, have very good prices as well, along with Vietnam, but you have to transit through Asia. We won't fly any of the mainland Chinese airlines, or transit via there at anytime. I would have considered Etihad, as they also have good prices, but it's not OneWorld.

Also with Qatar we fly in and out of Canberra with a technical stop in Sydney, did this flight last year and security, customs and immigration were done in Canberra and were a breeze.
 
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They already are depressing CX and HKG transit prices.

Return to EU in J ticketed via Finnair all the ~$6k options use CX (and the others near that price use HKG for the most part)

Virtually every other carrier/option is north of $7500......
 
They already are depressing CX and HKG transit prices.

Return to EU in J ticketed via Finnair all the ~$6k options use CX (and the others near that price use HKG for the most part)

Virtually every other carrier/option is north of $7500......

I bagged QR from HKG>DOH>LHR return for about AUD$3.5 just yesterday.
 
It seems carriers rather cancel routes than discount. Must be cheaper to have aircraft parked and staff on leave without pay, no fuel costs etc.
 
They already are depressing CX and HKG transit prices.

Return to EU in J ticketed via Finnair all the ~$6k options use CX (and the others near that price use HKG for the most part)

Virtually every other carrier/option is north of $7500......
Yeah I saw that too
 
Today is the last day to book QF DSC, and I almost did it.... then I read the headlines about Italy considering closing its borders between neighbouring countries such as France.... and it made me wonder: is there a decent chance that my vacation to Europe in June may not go ahead at all?
 
As I correctly predicted, prices are plummeting.

See, eg:

Not helpful for the OP as these airfares are not in J, but expect all airfares to slide as Coronavirus continues to spread and suppress demand for travel. It's only getting worse now that it is in South Korea, Italy and Iran.
 
Today is the last day to book QF DSC, and I almost did it.... then I read the headlines about Italy considering closing its borders between neighbouring countries such as France.... and it made me wonder: is there a decent chance that my vacation to Europe in June may not go ahead at all?
I just got back from Italy. The news makes it sound far more dire that it actually is. There are fewer tourists than normal (mainly due to the drop in Chinese tourists I suspect, although it’s also winter), but people are still out in public places, drinking, eating, squashing into metro carriages. On Saturday, Milan’s Duomo was awash with people and pigeons, people were shopping, the restaurants were full. On Friday, The Fondazione Prada (a contemporary art gallery) was quieter than I expected considering an exhibition had just opened that day, but there were still queues at the ticketing office, the cafe was standing room only, and the fashion show held as part of Milan Fashion week went ahead as scheduled. I don’t doubt that there will be some checks at the borders, but I don’t expect there will be a major crackdown China-style.
 
As I correctly predicted, prices are plummeting.
The question was more about by how much will they fall? And when will be rock bottom????
Who has the crystal ball?????????? :)

But seriously - yes I have seen the drop all over in Y - but not the premium cabins.

Yesterday I was checking QF fares to Europe and they are charging almost $5k rtn in PE!!!! Compared to $6k for J on AY (which includes to QF legs also in J)

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA what a joke. $5k for PE is INSANE in my opinion. I think they are keeping prices high during the DSC promo.... and then after we have all committed.... down they go! Pretty coughpy of them if that is the case.
 
Come on QF this is price gouging!!!!

$10k compared to around $6k on JL, CX, BA....
QF.JPG
Others.JPG
 
Come on QF this is price gouging!!!!

$10k compared to around $6k on JL, CX, BA....
View attachment 206753
View attachment 206754


A number of multi-national (esp. US headquartered) companies are getting staff to delay/cancel travel, and if not, then are heavily restricting routes.

By all accounts with the various transit point “bans” some companies are now issuing, QF must be making a killing on QF9/10 at the moment......
 

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