Will China Southern (CZ) join OneWorld?

[JessicaTam]

An interesting article from Loyalty Lobby:
China Southern Rumored To Exit SkyTeam And Switch To oneWorld, Becoming Their First Mainland China Carrier

Drawing on an article in the South China Morning Post:
Cathay and other airlines brace for China Southern exit from Skyteam alliance

That would make life interesting as QF partners with China Eastern (MU).

 

[moa999]

QF does also have a lesser set of codeshares with CZ.

AA also bought a 3% stake in CZ in early 2017.
Also remember that QR now holds 10% in CX, albeit dwarfed by CAs stake.

Don't think it would necessarily change the QF/MU relationship. Eg QF/EK vs QR in oneworld

 

[TomVexille]

Selfishly I kinda hope not as that could lead to CX leaving...

 

[JessicaTam]

I am not sure that would happen. They are based in separate countries - well economic zones at least.

 

[TomVexille]

There will be an overlap in customer bases and the proximity is still very close

 

[Gary. Wang]

What is the chance that CX would join the Star Alliance? I knew that Air China is the biggest share holder of Cathy pacific.

 

[Strategic Aviation]

Cathay Pacific won't leave oneworld to join Star Alliance, and China Southern can't join oneworld - CAPA

CAPA seem to think not. But it's a premium article so you can't read the whole thing without subscription.

 

[Limewood]

Was hoping for at least one more full service airline out of Cairns to use QF points to ASIA then it makes 2, yet still QF sit on their hands with CX flights full and finding a CX award J seat direct forget that one.

 

[Danger]

I would take half a Cathay over two China Southerns.

 

[williamsf1]

From recent J experience ... I would rate CZ over AY class ......
But CX would be a big loss

 

[Sprucegoose]

Selfishly I kinda hope not as that could lead to CX leaving...

Why would that lead to CX leaving ?

 

[dajop]

I would take half a Cathay over two China Southerns.

CX is not so good for internal China flights ..... unless you enjoy long mileage runs. Turns PEK-SHA into quite a long trip....

 

[Isochronous]

Was hoping for at least one more full service airline out of Cairns to use QF points to ASIA then it makes 2, yet still QF sit on their hands with CX flights full and finding a CX award J seat direct forget that one.

It would be nice to see QF setup CNS-HKG too!

 

[seanpodge]

Why would that lead to CX leaving ?

The thinking is that given the major hubs of the two are so close (CX - HKG, CZ - CAN) that they would be direct competitors and CX would either try to block CZ from joining OW or if that failed leave OW altogether, with a possible move to *A mooted.

 

[TomVexille]

Why would that lead to CX leaving ?

What @seanpodge said

 

[moa999]

Might be close, but still a substantial border (although the new train line will make things easier - due to open in late 2018)

But also you have to remember there are almost 120 million people in the Pearl River Delta region.

 

[dajop]

The thinking is that given the major hubs of the two are so close (CX - HKG, CZ - CAN) that they would be direct competitors and CX would either try to block CZ from joining OW or if that failed leave OW altogether, with a possible move to *A mooted.

But don't forget CZ also have a major hub at PEK as well and lesser hubs at CKG, PVG & URC. CZ joining oneworld wouldn't be just about international connecting traffic, oneworld has a huge hole for travel within China - which Skyteam dominates and Star alliance not fare behind. CZ serves >130 destinations in China. CX/KA serve 22.

Might be close, but still a substantial border (although the new train line will make things easier - due to open in late 2018).

For HKG originating or HKG bound passengers, even with new train line - that ends 56km or 1 hour from CAN. So getting to Kowloon, going through border formalities and security, then getting out of station, getting a taxi, traveling to CAN, not exactly convenient ... + 1 to your comment about Pearl River Delta population.

 

[moa999]

even with new train line - that ends 56km or 1 hour from CAN

While it still won't be easy I 'suspect' many of the HSR trains will be thru services to Beijing/Shanghai/Wuhan so you'll be able to get to Guangzhou North HSR, which is only 18km away (still 2 lines on the Metro - new Line9 then Line3)

 

[seanpodge]

But don't forget CZ also have a major hub at PEK as well and lesser hubs at CKG, PVG & URC. CZ joining oneworld wouldn't be just about international connecting traffic, oneworld has a huge hole for travel within China - which Skyteam dominates and Star alliance not fare behind. CZ serves >130 destinations in China. CX/KA serve 22.

Mainland China is clearly a bit of a black hole for OW that CX/KA is never going to be able to fix by itself. That said, CZ is hardly the only game in town and CX are hardly going to quietly cop having to play nice with a global scale carrier almost on its own doorstep. Main problem now is that most of the other really big mainland airlines are spoken for. Hainan, like VA in Australia, seems to want to do its own thing while I think OW missed a chance when Juneyao was drawn into the *A outer orbit.

OW might have to look at getting two or three of the smaller airlines to join up, possibly with offers of investment from other OW airlines as a sweetener and use them to build up a workable list of destinations in China.

 

[moa999]

Apart from Hainan, most of the other smaller Chinese airlines are regional ones that already often have ties and ownership with the majors.

Hainan is even less likely due to Hong Kong Airlines and HK Express ownership