Steve Creedy Article - domestic pax numbers decrease faster than capacity cuts

[eastwest101]

http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&r...=wlseyzgzb6DaXzZ2noF2FQ&bvm=bv.89184060,d.dGc

Cliff notes version - if this does not get around paywall......

1. Pax numbers down faster than cuts in available capacity in Jan 2015
2. Massive falls in charter flights due to resource industry cutbacks plus resource exposed RPT route load factors eg: Emerald, Newman and Mt Isa
3. Discretionary and leisure travel generally down
4. Discretionary and leisure routes in and out of Sydney buck the trend - possibly a by-product of the booming Sydney real estate market
5. BNE-SYD traffic -4.8%
6. SYD-MEL traffic flat, BNE-MEL -3.4%
7. Some notable routes that bucked the trend with growth were Sydney-Uluru, Sydney-Hamilton Is and Brisbane-Hobart

Given the discussions around the forum about fares seemingly creeping up, and the spare capacity I often see parked around on the weekend will be interesting to see how TT JQ VA and QF all react.

Anyone else notice the decrease of around 1% in average load factors? I realise that its an average and only translates or 1-3 pax on a typical narrowbody flight....

 

[opusman]

Anyone else notice the decrease of around 1% in average load factors? I realise that its an average and only translates or 1-3 pax on a typical narrowbody flight....

Domestic J seems fuller than ever. Can't remember the last time I noticed a spare J seat on MEL/ADL or MEL/SYD.

 

[smit0847]

Domestic J seems fuller than ever. Can't remember the last time I noticed a spare J seat on MEL/ADL or MEL/SYD.

Could also be that Airlines realise few people will pay full price J so have promoted other ways to get cheap upgrades like bidding to fill up the cabins

 

[boomy]

Domestic J seems fuller than ever. Can't remember the last time I noticed a spare J seat on MEL/ADL or MEL/SYD.

I suppose it depends on the time of the day. I've seen MEL/ADL J cabin almost empty on many occasions. Same for MEL/BNE, especially on midday flights where there is no proper meal on offer.

 

[yohy?!]

this will hit JQ the hardest i think with leisure travellers staying away, would be nice to see them shrink some more so they can no longer keep trumpeting their (gifted from QF) domestic results and then see some investment flowing back into QF (789s anyone...)

 

[Mattg]

I suppose it depends on the time of the day. I've seen MEL/ADL J cabin almost empty on many occasions. Same for MEL/BNE, especially on midday flights where there is no proper meal on offer.

I have rarely seen a full J cabin ex CBR outside of parliament sitting dates.

Re. the article, while it may be true that loads are down slightly, no doubt yields are higher this year than they were last year!

 

[codash1099]

I haven't seen a spare J seat on either PER-MEL or PER-SYD recently, but I guess that, like me, they are mostly upgrades.

 

[VA777]

Last Thursday night 7pm ex BNE to SYD first time I saw all J seat on a VA flight fully occupied.

 

[JohnK]

I am commuting but won't travel as often if airfares continue to increase. I won't travel Jetstar and/or Tiger to compensate. Local airlines need to streamline their operations (clerical and executive roles come to mind) and keep airfares low.

Domestic J seems fuller than ever. Can't remember the last time I noticed a spare J seat on MEL/ADL or MEL/SYD.

I hardly ever see an empty business class seat on a Qantas flight. Virgin business class on the other hand is a different story.