Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[CityRail]

NSW must 'get all their problems sorted' before Queensland border opens
By Matt Dennien

Other states would need to be free from new coronavirus cases for two weeks before borders restrictions are lifted in Queensland, the state’s chief health officer has said.
The spelling out of a criteria for winding back the travel ban comes after criticism of the lockdown, including comments from NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian at the weekend.
Queensland Chief Health Officer Dr Jeannette Young said other states would need to “get their problems sorted” before Queensland opened its border again, pointing to new outbreaks in Victoria.
The July date flagged in the state roadmap to lifting restrictions was the “absolute earliest” border controls could be reversed, she said.
“I think it’s highly unlikely, but maybe NSW and Victoria could get all their problems sorted.”
“What we would need is to see no new cases for two incubation periods.”
Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk told ABC News Breakfast this morning that September was looking “more positive” for domestic travel based on advice from Dr Young.

So it appears that Queensland border is going to be open either in July 10 or as late as September.

 

[dajop]

Agreed. Unless you are dual citizens who are simply go back to another country.

Should be " .. simply go back to another country permanently.."

It's often residency, not citizenship that determines access to free and/our subsidised health services in many countries, including Australia (noting though at the moment in Australia, COVID-19 treatment is free for non-residents, but that may not remain the casein the long term).

 

[dajop]

All these people predicting borders will stay closed for a long time miss a crucial piece of the puzzle.

Part of the problem for the Australian government is that they will soon come under enormous pressure to open the borders irrespective of the prevalence of COVID-19 in other countries.

Irrespective of what the Australian government, does it will depend on what insurers do. For some countries, with reciprocal health care arrangements it is probably relatively low (financial risk). However whilst still a declared pandemic, if may be difficult to get travel medical insurance to cover COVID-19 related illness, This could make travel to the US, as the most extreme example, a financially risky proposition for those who don't have a big facebook/gofundme network to move that risk to.

Of course the data available is huge, so insurance companies will probably be able to come up with a suitable premium for travel medical cover that does cover such illnesses. Perhaps less likely to come up with cancellation type cover.

 

[Gremlin]

After hearing the interview this morning, I think Palaszczuk is now hoping for September, not that it could be as late as September (as in, it could very well be later). They've always hinted that they are looking at two incubation periods before opening the relevant state border. When they put together the roadmap, it looked like mid-July would be the earliest they'd consider that. Not that it was a given it would happen mid-July.

Also, I think the relevant period is two incubation periods (ie four weeks) not two weeks as stated in the opening line of the article.

FWIW, this is a real tightrope for Palaszczuk. Obviously QLD has a much larger tourism industry than many other states so she would definitely want to be considering that. Interestingly, she was also asked about the possibility of opening up interstate travel OTHER THAN from NSW and Vic. I got the impression that there might be some appetite for that, but would obviously require a bilateral agreement with the other states.

 

[Gremlin]

Irrespective of what the Australian government, does it will depend on what insurers do. For some countries, with reciprocal health care arrangements it is probably relatively low (financial risk). However whilst still a declared pandemic, if may be difficult to get travel medical insurance to cover COVID-19 related illness, This could make travel to the US, as the most extreme example, a financially risky proposition for those who don't have a big facebook/gofundme network to move that risk to.

Of course the data available is huge, so insurance companies will probably be able to come up with a suitable premium for travel medical cover that does cover such illnesses. Perhaps less likely to come up with cancellation type cover.

Bear in mind also that the Govt literally just spent somewhere near $400bn to avoid the situation that many other countries in the rest of the world now find themselves in. Seems pretty unlikely to me that they'll quickly turn around and say that we now need to learn to live with the disease in our community because that's what's happening in the rest of the world.

 

[dajop]

Seems pretty unlikely to me that they'll quickly turn around and say that we now need to learn to live with the disease in our community because that's what's happening in the rest of the world.

I'm offering no commentary on if, or when, the government will open up. Merely saying it's not just the government. I can envisage a time when travel does open up and we'll be barraged with gofundme campaigns from people who've travelled to the US, contracted COVID-19 and landed themselves with a $500,000 medical bill.

 

[moa999]

Bear in mind also that the Govt literally just spent somewhere near $400bn to avoid the situation that many other countries in the rest of the world now find themselves in..

Exactly
Yes there will be pressure from some interest groups.
But while we have a chance of eradication, or at the very least keeping it well under control, far more $ negatives from reopening - and there will be other groups backing this line.

In any event I suspect we will see some large second waves in some US states and Euro countries as they reopen

 

[p--and--t]

Bear in mind also that the Govt literally just spent somewhere near $400bn to avoid the situation that many other countries in the rest of the world now find themselves in. Seems pretty unlikely to me that they'll quickly turn around and say that we now need to learn to live with the disease in our community because that's what's happening in the rest of the world.

Agree. The first lockdown was expensive enough and will take a long time to recover. The gov isn't going to want to go through it again in a second or third wave.

Trade can and is still is continuing unabated.

The major impacts are students and tourism.

They are already working on a plan for the students.

Quite logically there appears to be a strong preference for Aussies to spend their disposable income within the country instead of overseas which will help the local enterprises and budget more than Aussies flying out and spending it in Europe et al.

Allowing overseas travellers in willy nilly too early could likely end up being far more punitive on the economy than doing without external tourist dollars for 6-12 months more.

 

[ellen10]

Hmm, was hoping maybe Queensland would open their borders in July. But maybe not a possibility.

 

[jb747]

So it appears that Queensland border is going to be open either in July 10 or as late as September.

And yet they want to buy Virgin. Aren't they aware of what an airline is?

 

[CityRail]

In any event I suspect we will see some large second waves in some US states and Euro countries as they reopen

I really hope the second wave is not going to happen, I think the world suffered enough already, let alone the impact from a second wave coming out from this.

Let's hope the heat in Northern Summer is sufficient to keep the spread of Coronavirus to a minimum so that countries can safely reopens as the result of a vaccine being developed later this year.

 

[tgh]

And yet they want to buy Virgin


Our taxes at work
They want the jobs and the "prestige" of having the base in Qld.
It's a classic case of left driven ideology trumping common sense..

 

[CityRail]

Hmm, was hoping maybe Queensland would open their borders in July. But maybe not a possibility.

I wonder if the states refuses to open their borders by July whether the Federal Government will step in.

This is something they have agreed in the National Cabinet, so I don't understand why something you have agreed can simply backflip without a good reason.

Unless they have a very compelling reason, I think the state governments delay will definitely lead to backlash from voters.

Once again, I think one day politics is too much and even their stance is strong for now, they will eventually have to give in.

Similar for international travel, despite Australia and NZ can maintain strong borders, should more countries get to open up their borders without major outbreak, this will pressure Australia to open our borders as well, as we cannot afford to lag behind everyone from the competing tourism development.

 

[moa999]

The student market can be dealt with via quarantine.
2 weeks isolation when you're here to study for 12+ months isn't a huge issue.
Albeit I suspect numbers from China (our biggest market) will be down in any event due to broader political issues.

Very different for leisure tourists only wanting a 2-3 week holiday.

On the political issue, our Government has played this the wrong way. I agree a global investigation is needed but it shouldn't be just China focussed. It needs to look at China, WHO and when they made announcements, why various countries went ahead of or didn't follow WHO, test kit manufacture and distribution and the issues with poor relibaility, reporting standards in various countries etc.

 

[Gremlin]

They haven't agreed to anything wrt opening state borders at a National Cabinet level. The Fed Govt, NSW and Vic have all stated that they want it, but the other states have taken a different line.

I think the compelling reason is that Vic and NSW have active community transmission. Getting back to a more normal* day to day life is going to take priority over reopening borders. Look at NT, for example. They've eradicated and have reopened much faster than pretty much anywhere else in the world. If WA or SA or Qld have the opportunity to do what NT have done, they are going to do it for the people of their state. Even if it's going to impact holiday plans for Victorians.

* New normal

 

[Gremlin]

I really hope the second wave is not going to happen, I think the world suffered enough already, let alone the impact from a second wave coming out from this.

Let's hope the heat in Northern Summer is sufficient to keep the spread of Coronavirus to a minimum so that countries can safely reopens as the result of a vaccine being developed later this year.

I think a second wave is inevitable (not everywhere). As an example, there are parts of the US, particularly in the South, where case numbers haven't plateaued and are still increasing, there is still a shortage of PPE and they are reopening the economy. Can't see that ending well.

 

[jakeseven7]

And yet they want to buy Virgin. Aren't they aware of what an airline is?

No, no they don't. They don't know much the QLD state government apart from how to spend taxpayers money.

 

[CityRail]

I think a second wave is inevitable (not everywhere). As an example, there are parts of the US, particularly in the South, where case numbers haven't plateaued and are still increasing, there is still a shortage of PPE and they are reopening the economy. Can't see that ending well.

In that case it will be pretty scary and I think Americas will definitely off-limits for some long time then. Let's hope there will be no second wave in Europe and Asia so at least by the end of the year we can reopen Asia and parts of Europe first, whilst US can sort out its own vaccine before we open to them.

 

[Gremlin]

No, no they don't. They don't know much the QLD state government apart from how to spend taxpayers money.

At the risk of being flamed here, I can actually see the merit in running the numbers over it from their perspective...

Considering the alternatives, there is a very reasonable chance that if another buyer, particularly Private Equity, stumps up for Virgin that they will severely gut the airline's network and strip it back to capital cities/trunk services, maybe even Golden Triangle only. Domestic leisure markets run the risk of being completely decimated under this scenario if Qantas/Jetstar end up with a monopoly into regional destinations. Which would have a multi-billion dollar impact all the way up the Qld coast.

Even if it took on the airline as a loss leader, it may very well be the best infrastructure investment that a Qld Government might make (it may not!). The numbers "stacking up" in this context don't necessarily mean that the airline itself is profitable or the routes into regional Qld tourist destinations are standalone profitable, but if the Private Equity scenario emerged there's a lot of foregone state payroll tax, a lot of tourism businesses that may fold and no multiplier effect into those regional economies.

If I were in charge of state government coffers, I'd at least want to know whether the alternatives are worse, so it seems eminently sensible to get QIC to run the numbers on it...

 

[woodborer]

On the political issue, our Government has played this the wrong way. I agree a global investigation is needed but it shouldn't be just China focussed. It needs to look at China, WHO and when they made announcements, why various countries went ahead of or didn't follow WHO, test kit manufacture and distribution and the issues with poor relibaility, reporting standards in various countries etc.

While I partly agree, the draft resolution doesn't even mention China

https://apps.who.int/gb/ebwha/pdf_files/WHA73/A73_CONF1Rev1-en.pdf