Passenger numbers Australia - KUL

[Melburnian1]

The just released BITRE May 2018 statistics show that passenger traffic between Australian airports and Kuala Lumpur dropped substantially in May 2018 compared to May 2017.

May is a good month for comparisons because it lacks a differing date for Easter than can bedevil March and April comparisons.

In May 2017, in total, Australian airports handled 101236 inbound and 91199 outbound passengers from/to KUL.

The May 2018 figures were respectively 80791 and 76294.

Sydney, Melbourne, Gold Coast and Perth were all significantly down. BNE handled fewer than 1000 passengers from or to KUL in May 2018.

I don't recall any flight withdrawals or frequency/capacity reductions, so perhaps anyone who does can fill me in. Was there some special event in 2017 not repeated in 2018?

 

[dajop]

May is a good month for comparisons because it lacks a differing date for Easter than can bedevil March and April comparisons.

Whilst western holidays aren’t a factor, Ramadan started on 16 May this year whereas last year it started on 26 May. I am not sure what effect it has, but given Malaysia is majority Muslim it may have some impact.

 

[Franky]

I can give you one good reason for not flying to KL from Perth - the god awful 0220 departure time to get there..

 

[mannej]

I can give you one good reason for not flying to KL from Perth - the god awful 0220 departure time to get there..

That isn't your only option though?

 

[Melburnian1]

...Ramadan started on 16 May this year whereas last year it started on 26 May. I am not sure what effect it has, but given Malaysia is majority Muslim it may have some impact.

dajop, yes thank you, that will almost certainly account for some of the difference.

I've never asked anyone in Malaysia when I've been there: do they have short holidays like the Japanese? Plus we must have many Malaysian international students in Oz, so perhaps they travel during that Ramadan period.

If I remember in time I may add the May and June figures together to see if there was still a decline.

 

[SeatBackForward]

Probably not the main reason, but one potential factor - Malaysia has had a significant change in government this year, and this has had quite an impact on business confidence and potential economic activity.

 

[Franky]

Your'e right, six hours in a 737 would be another. Further, arriving in KL at 0800 makes it a long day for connections to Europe which arrive at a reasonable time.

 

[dajop]

Probably not the main reason, but one potential factor - Malaysia has had a significant change in government this year, and this has had quite an impact on business confidence and potential economic activity.

True. Election was on May 9. Many were keen to stay home to vote, so this also may have influenced travel.

 

[Franky]

Probably not the main reason, but one potential factor - Malaysia has had a significant change in government this year, and this has had quite an impact on business confidence and potential economic activity.

We were there for a week in mid April (via SIN I might add, though for work reasons) which was about a fortnight before the elections. All the taxi drivers we asked about the mood of the people, initially gave us a guarded response, but reading between the lines you could tell they were looking for change. You could see a vast amount on money was being spent on Government advertising for the poll. Given the level of corruption in that regime, I would have thought a change could only be better for the country, but who knows how the new mob will fare?

 

[dajop]

Your'e right, six hours in a 737 would be another. Further, arriving in KL at 0800 makes it a long day for connections to Europe which arrive at a reasonable time.

Understand the 737. Not fun. But I would have thought this provides a good connection to the LHR day flight ... Which gets you into LHR in time for dinner and going to bed ... IMHO much more of a reasonable time to arrive than first thing in the morning.

 

[moa999]

Id also say that D7 (AirAsiaX) and even MH havent been as discounted as in previous years.
I wonder whether some of the lower yielding traffic has been going to SIN, DPS etc

Any similar patterns in other SEAsia traffic?

 

[Melburnian1]

Id also say that D7 (AirAsiaX) and even MH havent been as discounted as in previous years.
I wonder whether some of the lower yielding traffic has been going to SIN, DPS etc

Any similar patterns in other SEAsia traffic?

moa99, as usual from you, interesting question.

BKK and HKG both stagnant (yes, latter not in SE Asia but is major air hub). When BKK and HKT put together, marginal decrease of one per cent.

MNL up four per cent. SGN up 30 per cent but not huge absolute numbers compared to say SIN. HAN doubled but only to 2000 passengers for the month each way.

DPS up 13 per cent, yet some media has claimed Bali has gone off the boil a little as a destination for Oz travellers. I don't know if this is OD traffic or passengers as you suggest transiting but bringing low yield to airlines.

SIN up eight per cent. Some of this will be QF switching its A388s from MEL and SYD to SIN rather than as was the case in May 2017, DXB.

By the way, SIN - SYD remains the number one city pair for international traffic to and from Oz at 117000 journeys (roughly 58500 each way) in May 2018. Give or take that's about 2000 passengers each way each day, so about equal to five full Airbus A380s.

SYD - AKL is next but SIN - MEL is close behind the first two.

I suspect within a year if present trends continue, SIN - MEL (not SYD) will be the busiest international route.

So you may have a point. Never argue with someone who put together such a fantastic table for the QF A333 refurbishments! (Mind blowing amount of detail and work, but hugely popular on the site. A shame it hasn't been done for other airlines.)

 

[Scarlett]

...Ramadan started on 16 May this year whereas last year it started on 26 May. I am not sure what effect it has, but given Malaysia is majority Muslim it may have some impact.

Shouldn’t have had any effect. The start of the Ramadan period is the start of the fasting month and is generally not associated with travel.

Now the end of the fasting period, that is a different story, where there are some holiday dates and people will travel to celebrate the end of the period with family.

 

[Quickstatus]

Probably not the main reason, but one potential factor - Malaysia has had a significant change in government this year, and this has had quite an impact on business confidence and potential economic activity.

international students incl Malaysian ones travel during semester/term dates..
This year mid semester break was April IIRC

 

[dajop]

Shouldn’t have had any effect. The start of the Ramadan period is the start of the fasting month and is generally not associated with travel.

That was more or less my point, given the question is why travel is slightly less than same month last year. Some of my Muslim colleagues (who are Indonesian though, not Malaysian) suggested that people actually travel less during the first weeks of Ramadan saving up their travel to be with family or go on holidays at the end of the period.