Oct 2015 BITRE stats: disastrous punctuality on SYD - MEL and high cancellation rates

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Melburnian1

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While some was weather related, the appalling domestic airline punctuality on the Sydney - Melbourne route, Australia's busiest, in October 2016 shows why we need high speed trains along the lower east coast of Australia:

http://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/files/BITRE_OTP_Report_October_2016.pdf

Across the Australia-wide domestic network, VA and its smaller 'regional' (sic) network were top of the pops but overall punctuality dropped compared with October 2015.

In October 2016 in the southbound (SYD - MEL) direction, 37 per cent of Jetstar flights were more than 15 minutes late arriving in MEL. The same was true for 30.8 per cent of Tigerair flights, 29.1 per cent of Qantas flights and 25.5 per cent of Virgin Australia's. Cancellation rates southbound were 5.6 per cent for JQ, a surprisingly high 4.8 per cent for QF and 4.5 per cent for both TT and VA.

Northbound (MEL to SYD), 33.3 per cent of JQ's flights were more than 15 minutes late, while the same applied to 27 per cent of TT's, 22.6 per cent of QF's but a much lower 14.4 per cent for VA's offerings. Cancellation rates were 5.6 per cent for JQ, 4.9 and 4.7 per cent for respectively QF and VA and a far lower two per cent for TT, though the latter has the fewest flights.

Then high cancellation rates indicate what is euphemistically known as 'capacity management' but the rest of us might call it 'false advertising', although a few cancellations may have been weather related.

Nonetheless, airlines like QF and to a slightly lesser extent VA heavily promote 15 minute or half hourly flight frequencies on routes like SYD - MEL - SYD but then often do not deliver.

Compare this to a properly built and operated high speed rail network that based on the achievements of many nations would be a hell of a lot more reliable and punctual. Add to that the convenience of city centre to city centre one mode transport and the ability (unlike on planes) to get up and stretch one's legs and it's a no brainer. We can afford high speed rail as a nation, although the high costs imposed by the CFMEU make any engineering project in Australia challenging.

Northbound from SYD to BNE, 40.2 per cent of JQ's flights were more than 15 minutes late arriving in BNE.

From HBA to MEL, an astounding 53.2 per cent of JQ flights were similarly late although QF and VA's performance was nothing to write home about. TT excelled with only 9.8 per cent of its flights northbound on this route being more than 15 minutes late, although it only operated 32 flights for the month.

QantasLink's performance into SYD from NSW provincial cities including ABX/ARM/CFS/DBO/TMW and WGA was very poor with between 23 and 27 per cent of flights more than 15 minutes late. This unpunctuality was quite consistent for these routes and shows how late running on one can affect another, because the rosters tend not to limit the planes to just one route in country NSW. SYd - MRZ is not disclosed as QF lacks a competitor.

VA had a particular problem from NTL to MEL with 52.9 per cent of its 34 flights in October 2016 more than 15 minutes late.

Timekeeping on MEL - PER (admittedly a longer domestic route) was poor with no airline having fewer than 34 per cent of its flights more than 15 minutes late. VA was the worst with 43.2 per cent regarded as 'late.' In contrast, on the longer westbound SYD - PER route, TT managed to have 'only' 18.5 per cent of its flights more than a quarter of an hour late, hardly stellar but at least not plumbing VA's depths, the latter having 42.6 per cent in the tardy category.

On the BNK - SYD route, all three (JQ, VA and ZL) had between 70 and 75 per cent of flights arrive in SYD 15 minutes or less late. The worse for timekeeping BNK - MEL route (only operated by JQ) was not disclosed.

QantasLink has somewhat improved its performance on the previously very unpunctual HBA - MEL and HBA - SYD routes but it remains imperfect.
 
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Re: Oct 2015 BITRE stats: disastrous punctuality on SYD - MEL and high cancellation r

you had me in your corner right up up until "CFMEU costs" got mentioned, best to keep union talk out of it or the thread will likely descend into chaos!

agree 100% though - we are decades behind the developed world in this space and the economic penalty from lack of high speed rail will only continue to get worse.
 
Re: Oct 2015 BITRE stats: disastrous punctuality on SYD - MEL and high cancellation r

agree 100% though - we are decades behind the developed world in this space and the economic penalty from lack of high speed rail will only continue to get worse.

yohi?!, that's the key isn't it?

Working is all about productivity. Which is better - a car/Uber/taxi/ train/bus to an airport, security screening, wait in lounge, flight delayed sometimes, flight then repeat process in reverse or the much simpler process of a high speed train city centre to city centre.

It's true not everyone is bound for the CBD of our cities, but at least these typically have a web of public transport radiating from places like Central in Sydney. Not perfect, but overall, more productive than the current arrangements. A high speed train would have a stop on the outskirts of cities such as Campbellfield in Melbourne that would cater for those who need to say, drive to a factory in Derrimut.

I know some with access to the CL or the VA equivalent and a few of these disagree, but such individuals are not typical of the Australian population.

There are other suggested benefits to high speed trains but perhaps that's out of scope for AFF.
 
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Re: Oct 2015 BITRE stats: disastrous punctuality on SYD - MEL and high cancellation r

If a train could do SYD-BNE in 4-5 hours and be priced same as airfares or cheaper then I would be taking the train especially red-eyes where I could spend full day with family in Sydney.

I suspect train fares will be more expensive than airfares.
 
Re: Oct 2015 BITRE stats: disastrous punctuality on SYD - MEL and high cancellation r

Another shocking JQ route was westbound on MEL - ADL, where 59.2 per cent of JQ flights in October 2016 were more than 15 minutes late in arriving.
 
Re: Oct 2015 BITRE stats: disastrous punctuality on SYD - MEL and high cancellation r

A further standout was MEL's poor timekeeping with regards to those flights monitored by BITRE: only those routes with two or more competitors and where 8000 or more passengers (which I think means an average of '4000 each way', as the '80900' is not one way) a month are carried.

Only 74 per cent of 7273 flights arriving in October 2016 were 15 minutes or less late for MEL.

Compare that to 81.1 per cent of 9091 monitored SYD arriving flights, and 87.1 per cent of 6176 monitored flights into BNE, along with 78.2 per cent of 2446 such flights into PER. ADL was 80.7 per cent of 2362 checked flights while OOL was 81.7 per cent of 1417 monitored flights.

Even HBA was better than MEL, but LST was a little worse. However LST plays host to far fewer passengers a month than MEL.

It is worrying that one of our pilot contributors suggested some months ago that the planned third runway in MEL was in the wrong place.
 
Re: Oct 2015 BITRE stats: disastrous punctuality on SYD - MEL and high cancellation r

Would the lacklustre domestic performance be partially due to the return of the cosy duopoly in the skies?.
 
Re: Oct 2015 BITRE stats: disastrous punctuality on SYD - MEL and high cancellation r

Would the lacklustre domestic performance be partially due to the return of the cosy duopoly in the skies?.

I'm unsure that we can totally match it to this.

As noted above, weather played a part. Delays cost airlines money, whether monopoly, duopoly or oligopoly - or huge competition.

I agree it is becoming a 'cosy duopoly' in some aspects as what is striking on so many routes is how the flights depart within a few minutes of each other much of the time.

It's not 'cosy' in one sense in that VA is unprofitable, but that is a subject for other threads on AFF.

However Quickstatus I suspect you are implying 'lack of innovation' and 'if airline X cancels a flight it doesn't really matter because airline Z does it too' and in those areas you are on the mark.
 
Re: Oct 2015 BITRE stats: disastrous punctuality on SYD - MEL and high cancellation r

However Quickstatus I suspect you are implying 'lack of innovation' and 'if airline X cancels a flight it doesn't really matter because airline Z does it too' and in those areas you are on the mark.

Thats cosy.:D
And often cancellations are at the very last minute which means that passengers are beholden to the airline with their checked luggage tagged and taken.
 
Re: Oct 2015 BITRE stats: disastrous punctuality on SYD - MEL and high cancellation r

...often cancellations are at the very last minute which means that passengers are beholden to the airline with their checked luggage tagged and taken.

True. For clarification, the BITRE definition of a 'flight cancellation' is 'a flight removed from service within 7 days of scheduled departure...'
 
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