This is a system I worked out and use to launder/amass QFF points
Requirements:
An online betting agency account
A points earning credit card that doesnt treat betting purchases as cash advances (I currently use a NAB Platinum AMEX/VISA)
A line of credit or large amount of redraw in your home loan (to maximise the results)
How it works:
I amass points through purchases and bets on events that statistically 'cannot be lost'. The odds offered are very low, generally only 1.01 because of such low risk. I empty my card into my online betting account and then reload my credit card using my redraw from my home loan to clear my card each time. Each time I empty my card into my betting account I earn FF points.
I then put massively large bets on 'low risk / low return' events. Those bets come in and the capital is returned to me, I transfer the capital back into my home loan and I'm left having earned a whole lot of points.
So the first question is 'what possible events are out there that are so low risk that you'd feel comortable betting hundreds of thousands of dollars on them?'
The answer is individual seats in state or federal elections, making the bet the night before the election is due to occur once all the pre-polling data has come in and a result is already 'known'.
If I've lost people I'll now provide a practical example I used in the federal election just gone.
1. Empty my $30,000 limit NAB Platinum Visa credit into my Centrebet account
2. Use redraw from my home loan to pay down the credit card back to $0
3. Repeat steps 1 & 2 until I run out of available capital. In this case I pumped $200,000 into my betting account before running out of redraw.
I will have accrued 132,000 points by doing this.
4. The night before the election put the $200,000 on ALP (Julia Gillard) to retain the federal seat of Lalor paying $1.01 for every $1 bet.
5. The election occurs and I win the bet
6. Next day withdraw the money from the betting account and pay the money back from where it came (back into my home loan). You have to turn over money you've put in your betting account at least once before they let you withdraw it.
7. I keep the $2,000 winnings and also the 132,000 frequent flyer points.
8. Wait for the next election, identify the impossible to lose seats and go again
That's it...
So at this point a lot of people say "yeah but what if you lose the bet?". The point is that in betting, maximising your chances of winning comes from having the maximum amount of information you possibly can. In this case so much information is available on elections that backs up my position, the chances of me losing basically do not exist.
Typically, a good bet to choose is one where you have a leader of a party sitting on a very healthy swing or majority. Say +12%. Leaders are most always returned by their electorates.* Also the larger the majority they sit on the harder it is for them to lose the seat obviously.
Secondly, examine the pre-polling data across a number of polling agencies. In the case of my bet above, Galaxy, AC Nielsen and Morgan Polls all indicated Federal Labor was going to record a state swing towards it in Victoria (where Julia's seat of Lalor is).
Thirdly, once confident of the bet, lay the bet at the last possible moment the night before the election. That means that nothing unforseen can happen (like the candidate dying) between the time you lay your bet and the actual poll.
If one follows the above steps properly then statistically the chances of losing are nil. As it was, Julia Gillard won her seat of Lalor originally on 11% margin and recorded a 6% swing to her (just as all the pre-polls (AC Nielsen, Galaxy and Morgan) the day before the election predicted would happen.
Ive done this over a number of elections both state, federal and US Presidential. US election betting basically goes on whether the Democrats or Repbulicans will win a particular state. So far I've amassed close to 550,000 points in just over 2 years just from this particular strategy.
It works pretty well but I would say you need to have a semi-decent understanding of politics so you can do your research and understand how low the risks actually are when you do it properly. If you lack understanding in this area then you won't be confident enough in the data that exists to bet on it.
I'm trying to devise other systems but so far this is the only one that works effectively and where the sums add up. Does anyone else out there have systems to bulk amass points?
* It is true John Howard lost his seat in the 2007 Federal election although going by my criteria above this would not have been a 'sure thing' bet at any stage. John Howard was sitting on a very slender margin at the time and pre-polling was indicating strong swings were going to happen against him . Kevin Rudd to win Griffith in 2007 would have been a sure thing bet. He had a strong margin in his seat of Griffith and pre-polling was showing Labor was recording a strong swings towards it in QLD.
Requirements:
An online betting agency account
A points earning credit card that doesnt treat betting purchases as cash advances (I currently use a NAB Platinum AMEX/VISA)
A line of credit or large amount of redraw in your home loan (to maximise the results)
How it works:
I amass points through purchases and bets on events that statistically 'cannot be lost'. The odds offered are very low, generally only 1.01 because of such low risk. I empty my card into my online betting account and then reload my credit card using my redraw from my home loan to clear my card each time. Each time I empty my card into my betting account I earn FF points.
I then put massively large bets on 'low risk / low return' events. Those bets come in and the capital is returned to me, I transfer the capital back into my home loan and I'm left having earned a whole lot of points.
So the first question is 'what possible events are out there that are so low risk that you'd feel comortable betting hundreds of thousands of dollars on them?'
The answer is individual seats in state or federal elections, making the bet the night before the election is due to occur once all the pre-polling data has come in and a result is already 'known'.
If I've lost people I'll now provide a practical example I used in the federal election just gone.
1. Empty my $30,000 limit NAB Platinum Visa credit into my Centrebet account
2. Use redraw from my home loan to pay down the credit card back to $0
3. Repeat steps 1 & 2 until I run out of available capital. In this case I pumped $200,000 into my betting account before running out of redraw.
I will have accrued 132,000 points by doing this.
4. The night before the election put the $200,000 on ALP (Julia Gillard) to retain the federal seat of Lalor paying $1.01 for every $1 bet.
5. The election occurs and I win the bet
6. Next day withdraw the money from the betting account and pay the money back from where it came (back into my home loan). You have to turn over money you've put in your betting account at least once before they let you withdraw it.
7. I keep the $2,000 winnings and also the 132,000 frequent flyer points.
8. Wait for the next election, identify the impossible to lose seats and go again
That's it...
So at this point a lot of people say "yeah but what if you lose the bet?". The point is that in betting, maximising your chances of winning comes from having the maximum amount of information you possibly can. In this case so much information is available on elections that backs up my position, the chances of me losing basically do not exist.
Typically, a good bet to choose is one where you have a leader of a party sitting on a very healthy swing or majority. Say +12%. Leaders are most always returned by their electorates.* Also the larger the majority they sit on the harder it is for them to lose the seat obviously.
Secondly, examine the pre-polling data across a number of polling agencies. In the case of my bet above, Galaxy, AC Nielsen and Morgan Polls all indicated Federal Labor was going to record a state swing towards it in Victoria (where Julia's seat of Lalor is).
Thirdly, once confident of the bet, lay the bet at the last possible moment the night before the election. That means that nothing unforseen can happen (like the candidate dying) between the time you lay your bet and the actual poll.
If one follows the above steps properly then statistically the chances of losing are nil. As it was, Julia Gillard won her seat of Lalor originally on 11% margin and recorded a 6% swing to her (just as all the pre-polls (AC Nielsen, Galaxy and Morgan) the day before the election predicted would happen.
Ive done this over a number of elections both state, federal and US Presidential. US election betting basically goes on whether the Democrats or Repbulicans will win a particular state. So far I've amassed close to 550,000 points in just over 2 years just from this particular strategy.
It works pretty well but I would say you need to have a semi-decent understanding of politics so you can do your research and understand how low the risks actually are when you do it properly. If you lack understanding in this area then you won't be confident enough in the data that exists to bet on it.
I'm trying to devise other systems but so far this is the only one that works effectively and where the sums add up. Does anyone else out there have systems to bulk amass points?
* It is true John Howard lost his seat in the 2007 Federal election although going by my criteria above this would not have been a 'sure thing' bet at any stage. John Howard was sitting on a very slender margin at the time and pre-polling was indicating strong swings were going to happen against him . Kevin Rudd to win Griffith in 2007 would have been a sure thing bet. He had a strong margin in his seat of Griffith and pre-polling was showing Labor was recording a strong swings towards it in QLD.
